Fortum - Accelerator of the Clean Energy Transition

SSAB (Rautaruukki) has been involved in the Olkiluoto 3 project through Pohjolan Voima, so they could very well be involved in new nuclear power projects as well, perhaps even with a larger stake.

Now that the chemical industry and Siilasmaa have been complaining about the electricity consumption of data centers, they could stop complaining and, together with their companies, set up a firm similar to Pohjolan Voima. Surely part of the forest industry could also get involved, and even Fortum financed 25% of OL3. If they use the Mankala model in the background, the owners get priority, and the financing structure would be similar to that of OL3. One would imagine that challenges like TVO’s credit rating and system protection wouldn’t arise if lessons have been learned from the OL3 project.

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Death cross formed for Fortum’s stock

A death cross occurs when a company’s 50-day moving average falls below its 200-day moving average. The phenomenon has often preceded a trend-like decline in a stock’s price.

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Fortum’s offer for the Norwegian power company Elmera starts today. The company’s 2026e P/E ratio is around 20, and it has just under a million customers. A portion of their operations is also in Sweden and Finland. It’s not outrageously priced, but it’s not cheap either, given the 59% premium offered by Fortum. The offer period runs until September 18, 2026.

The biggest benefits are likely a stronger foothold in Norway, economies of scale, and blocking the market entry of the Spanish company that had made a competing offer :slight_smile: Personally, I view this with mild positivity.

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Here are Juha’s comments on Fortum’s tender offer for Elmera. :slight_smile:

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Financing can start to be raised, but if there is no operator with their nuclear power licensing in order, how on earth is this going to get off the ground? I would imagine that TVO and Fortum, which currently operate in Finland, would gladly build their facilities adjacent to their own plants rather than at Hanhikivi. Of course, if the terms are clearly better at Hanhikivi—meaning someone pays extra and guarantees floor prices, provides financing, etc.—but I doubt such an equation is possible. Are foreign operators like Vattenfall, EDF, etc., then interested in coming to Finland? Hardly.

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Mm. Juha Varis tweets today about the German government’s sales letter regarding Uniper, which was sent out in early August. Fortum is noted in the German media as being interested in a partial stake purchase.

Fortum’s tender offer for Elmera ends on Fri, Sep 18, 2026. A potential bid for a slice of Uniper would go out by Mon, Sep 21, 2026 at the latest. Exciting times are ahead at the end of next month. In Uniper’s case, I’m not holding my breath​:smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

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Here is Vara’s latest here https://vara-services.com/fortum/consensus-analystoverview/

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NuCore Energi, a project company owned by Fortum that focuses on developing new nuclear power, has submitted a state aid application to begin discussions with the Swedish government regarding the framework and conditions for advancing a new nuclear power project located in the municipality of Oskarshamn, Sweden.

In March 2025, Fortum published the conclusions of its feasibility study on new nuclear power. The extensive study examined the commercial, technological, and societal prerequisites for new nuclear power projects in Finland and Sweden. Following the study, Fortum has continued project development and built its capabilities to ensure that new nuclear power can be part of the solution to the growing electricity demand of customers in the Nordic countries.

As part of the project development, Fortum has established a separate company, NuCore Energi, to develop, own, construct, and operate a new nuclear power plant and related infrastructure in Sweden. Exploring the advancement of new nuclear power in the Nordics is in line with Fortum’s strategy to reliably produce and supply energy while promoting industrial decarbonization and growth in the region. Fortum and NuCore Energi have not made any investment decisions regarding the new nuclear power project.

The application sets the framework for discussions between NuCore Energi and the Swedish government on the conditions for new nuclear power

The Swedish state aid framework is designed to support new nuclear power through government loans, a two-way Contract for Difference (CfD), and a risk-sharing mechanism. The detailed terms of the state aid are always agreed upon between the project company and the Swedish government, and any potential support would require approval from the European Commission in accordance with EU state aid rules.

The electrical capacity of the project currently being developed by NuCore Energi ranges between 1,200 and 3,400 megawatts. The final scale of the project depends on several factors, such as technology selection, the benefits of building multiple reactor units, expected growth in electricity demand in Sweden, and risk sharing between the project and the state. For the project to proceed, it must be viable for its owners in terms of implementation and financing.

Over time, more investors are expected to join the project, including private investors and potentially the Swedish state. Fortum’s goal is to gradually reduce its ownership and remain a minority shareholder in NuCore Energi.

The continuation of the project from this stage forward depends on the key terms and principles described in the state aid application. These include, for example, the commitment of industrial customers to purchase electricity produced by new nuclear power, as well as long-term political support for nuclear power in Sweden. A significant condition is also that NuCore Energi gains access to and control over the Ävrö land area in the Oskarshamn municipality. The area is currently owned by Oskarshamn Kraftgrupp AB (“OKG”), in which Fortum holds a significant ownership stake.

Fortum’s nuclear expertise and the new nuclear power study form the foundation for NuCore Energi

Fortum is a strong Nordic nuclear power operator with over 45 years of experience in reliable nuclear power production. Fortum owns and operates two nuclear reactors in Loviisa and is a co-owner in a total of seven nuclear reactors in Finland and Sweden, including the Forsmark and Oskarshamn nuclear power plants. Fortum has been closely involved in recent nuclear power projects, particularly in the construction of the OL3 reactor at Olkiluoto in Finland. Fortum’s nuclear expertise covers the entire lifecycle of nuclear power plants, from new construction to decommissioning and final disposal of nuclear waste.

Fortum’s two-year feasibility study on new nuclear power examined both small modular reactors (SMRs) and traditional large-scale reactors. In conjunction with the study’s conclusions, Fortum announced that it would deepen its cooperation with two large-scale reactor technology suppliers, EDF and Westinghouse-Hyundai, as well as one SMR developer, GE Vernova Hitachi.

Fortum and the selected companies formalized their cooperation by signing Early Works Agreements (EWA) in June 2025. The agreements cover early-stage project planning, site and plant adaptation, and targeted actions related to licensing and permitting, including the continuation of pre-licensing dialogue with Nordic nuclear safety authorities.

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A plot of land in Loviisa already purchased for a new nuclear power plant, Sweden’s nuclear project announcement today, major wind power expansion plans, several pumped-storage power plants in progress, data center sites, and maybe even a bid for a slice of Uniper. Etc.

Fortum not making growth investments?

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There was nothing inherently surprising in the press release or the matter itself. Fortum was mostly just in a hurry with its application to preserve its eligibility for the Swedish state’s support scheme aimed at new nuclear power construction.

The support is capped at 5,000 MW. Ringhals will consume 1,500 MW, and new applications are being announced at an accelerating pace. Just the day before yesterday, for example, Blykalla submitted an application for a 440 MW SMR park.

There are over 20 reactors planned at various locations in Sweden. Some will certainly materialize, but it will be interesting to see what happens to the projects left outside the support scheme. Will they die out, or will the market sustain them…

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