Significantly more electricity was generated via hydropower in Sweden in January 2026 compared to the previous January in 2025. This can be verified, for example, here: eSett
At the moment, the deficit is mainly in Norwegian snow levels, so the situation is very good for Fortum. The deficit pushes up electricity prices but does not affect production volumes.
If February and March play out as currently predicted, the Q1-2026 result will be very high despite the €41/MWh and 75% hedges for 2026. This is due to high production volumes (hydropower and nuclear power) and very high prices for the unhedged portion. When production is high, more of it is sold at high spot prices. Furthermore, the optimization premium will be very high.
In practice, this year’s dividend will be earned in the first quarter.
OP’s senior analyst Henri Parkkinen has made a video about Fortum
Fortum’s comparable EBITDA in Q4 was clearly below consensus. In the conference call following the results, the company announced that the capacity it offered was not selected for the final rounds of the bidding process for PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) contracts for Microsoft’s data centers under construction in Finland. Investors were disappointed by the news and the company’s share price dropped on Tuesday. In the video, OP’s senior analyst Henri Parkkinen reviews the company’s Q4 results and data center updates.
