They managed to hedge their fuel prices quite well for the spring, summer, and autumn. Flying to the Middle East and through the Middle East to Asia will soon be more successful. Good fleet acquisitions have been made recently. Analysts haven’t had time to update their latest reports yet. The crisis in Ukraine is also likely heading toward its final stages, after which flights to Asia over Russia should become possible again.
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I’m just thinking about the valuation relative to Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS). NAS aircraft use 15-33% less fuel per passenger kilometer than Finnair’s “full-service” planes. NAS ordered 80 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, while Finnair ordered 18 new Embraer E195-E2 aircraft. In early 2026, NAS’s average load factor was 87.6%, while Finnair’s was 78.0%.
On Asian routes, the Chinese have an overflight advantage. It may take a long time before Finnair’s planes can access Russian airspace. After the war in Ukraine, Finland is unlikely to have a special status for routes overflying Russia.
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NAS’s share price took a dip as the company looks to expand its operations into leisure activities. The deal still requires approval to be finalized.
Finnair has had similar operations through its subsidiary Aurinkomatkat.
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Here are Kaisa’s and Antti’s comments on Norwegian acquiring Nordic Leisure Travel Group (NLTG), which strengthens its position in Nordic leisure travel and expands its operations beyond flying. 
From Finnair’s perspective, we estimate that the direct impact of the arrangement will remain limited in the short term.
Antti and Kaisa have completed a comprehensive report on Finnair, which is available for everyone to read, just like our other initiation reports.
Finnair has moved from post-crisis reconstruction to a new strategy period, where the company aims for profitable growth and strengthening non-ticket revenues while implementing a narrow-body fleet renewal. Although our near-term forecasts have risen significantly due to strong demand and pricing conditions in the early part of the year, we believe the sharp rise in the share price seen recently has priced in quite high expectations, especially when compared to industry valuation levels. Thus, the 12-month expected return for the share remains unsatisfactory in our base case scenario. Consequently, we are lowering our recommendation for Finnair to Sell (prev. Reduce), but raising our target price to EUR 3.80 (prev. EUR 3.0) following forecast upgrades and a decreased required rate of return.
Quotes from the report:
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I investigated further into the rise in Finnair’s share price, as there seems to be no end in sight. Since October 2025, the Helsinki branch of Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab (SEB) has been increasing its stake in Finnair. Its ownership was 8.55% on October 31, 2025, and reached 10.73% by May 31, 2026. SEB is the second-largest shareholder in Finnair immediately after the State of Finland (the latter holding 55.68%). SEB has acted, among other things, as a financial advisor in SAS’s debt restructuring. Unfortunately, no clear conclusions regarding overvaluation can be drawn from this information. As SEB has increased its ownership stake in Finnair, it has naturally contributed to the rise in Finnair’s share value.
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Hi @qwerty3 and thanks for your observations!
To clarify, the SEB ownership stake you mentioned refers to nominee-registered shares. In other words, it does not mean that SEB itself owns that portion of Finnair’s shares; rather, SEB acts as the account operator for these nominee-registered shares, which are reported as a single holding managed by SEB. The actual share ownership behind the nominee register may be dispersed among many different parties. In contrast, non-nominee-registered shareholdings directly indicate the actual percentage of Finnair owned by that specific entity.
Best regards, Erkka
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I know. In this respect, the pattern is the same as with Nordea. Nokia’s largest brokerage bank is Nordea. Its share is currently 0.20%.
According to the internet, SEB’s Helsinki branch offers stock brokerage and nominee registration services to foreign and domestic large-scale investors, funds, and institutions. This is reflected in the stock exchange by the fact that significant volumes of Finnair’s share turnover pass through SEB, and the bank can manage large holdings on behalf of its clients.
Here are Kaisa’s comments regarding the pre-silent period call organized by Finnair
Finnair held its Q2 pre-silent period analyst and investor call on Monday. The company commented that the demand environment has remained good, although uncertainties still surround the outlook, particularly regarding the situation in the Middle East and fuel prices. However, the call did not provide significant new information and therefore does not lead to changes in our forecasts. Finnair will publish its June traffic data next week and its Q2 results on July 22. Our recently published extensive report on the company can be read here.
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SAS, Finnair’s Nordic competitor, is ordering up to 40 wide-body aircraft (Airbus A330 series). While some will certainly replace aging fleet, there is definitely capacity for significant growth there as well. Quite an interesting order!
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Here are Pete’s comments on Finnair’s June figures.
Finnair’s June traffic performance report was, on the whole, better than our expectations, thanks to volume development and, in particular, unit revenues. In our assessment, this creates slight upward pressure on our short-term revenue forecasts. However, regarding earnings forecasts, the overall picture is more neutral, as the passenger load factor fell short of our expectations. In addition, the earnings outlook continues to be overshadowed by the conflict in the Middle East and the associated risks to both demand and fuel prices. Finnair will publish its Q2 report on Wednesday, July 22.
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Here is Antti and Kaisa’s pre-game analysis ahead of Finnair’s Q2 results on Wednesday.
Finnair will release its Q2 results on Wednesday at 9:00 a.m. We have raised our Q2 forecasts due to traffic data being stronger than we expected. We estimate that the operating result has clearly improved compared to the comparison period and reached an excellent level thanks to high revenue. After a very strong start to the year, we consider an increase in the revenue guidance possible, and we expect the company to at least narrow its wide result guidance range by raising the lower end. In our view, the earnings improvement in line with our forecasts is already priced into the stock, which is why, on a one-year horizon, the expected return on the shares remains below our required rate of return. Consequently, we are not making any changes to our view on Finnair before the Q2 report.
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Kaisa interviewed Finnair’s CEO Turkka Kuusisto and CFO Pia Aaltonen-Forsell after the Q2 results were released
Topics:
(00:00) Intro
(00:15) “A very strong result”
(01:38) Drivers of unit revenue growth
(02:50) Demand outlook for the remainder of the year
(03:42) Impact of the Middle East situation on Finnair in Q2
(05:44) Growth in capacity and passenger numbers
(06:57) Capacity allocation
(07:44) Pickup in consumer demand
(08:34) Fuel cost trends for the remainder of the year
(10:23) Customer satisfaction
(12:04) Impact of the Norwegian NLTG deal on Aurinkomatkat (Suntours)
(13:46) Starting position for the remainder of the year
Here is the company’s release on the results.
Finnair Plc Stock Exchange Release 22 July 2026 at 9:00 a.m. EEST
Strong performance in the second quarter
April–June 2026
Revenue increased by 16.4% to 916.7 million euros (787.7).
Comparable operating result was 78.4 million euros (10.3). In the comparison period, the direct negative impact of industrial actions on the comparable operating result was approximately 29 million euros.
Operating result was 86.6 million euros (19.2).
Earnings per share were 0.28 euros (0.06).
Net cash flow from operating activities was 182.6 million euros (43.7).
Gross investments were 71.6 million euros (72.2).
The number of passengers increased by 7.6% to 3.3 million (3.1).
Available seat kilometres (ASK) increased by 2.0% to 10,411.3 million kilometres (10,207.8). When wet leases are included, capacity decreased by 2.0%.
Passenger load factor (PLF) increased by 3.4 percentage points to 79.9% (76.6).
January–June 2026
Revenue increased by 14.4% to 1,694.8 million euros (1,481.9).
Comparable operating result was 77.8 million euros (-52.3). In the comparison period, the direct negative impact of industrial actions on the comparable operating result was approximately 51 million euros.
Operating result was 90.2 million euros (-34.2).
Earnings per share were 0.24 euros (-0.19).
Net cash flow from operating activities was 456.5 million euros (235.8).
Gross investments were 173.3 million euros (124.5).
The number of passengers increased by 7.4% to 6.1 million (5.7).
Available seat kilometres (ASK) increased by 2.7% to 19,865.5 million kilometres (19,334.2). When wet leases are included, capacity increased by 0.9%.
Passenger load factor (PLF) increased by 3.8 percentage points to 79.0% (75.2).
Unless otherwise stated, figures in parentheses refer to the comparison period, i.e., the same period in the previous year.
Outlook and guidance
Outlook and guidance 22 July 2026
Outlook (specified)
International air traffic is expected to continue to grow in 2026. Finnair plans to increase its total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres, by approximately 1%. The reduction in the capacity estimate from the previous one is due to the cancellation of flights to the Middle East. The capacity estimate includes wet leases. The number of passengers in Finnair’s own traffic is expected to grow by approximately 7% in 2026.
International conflicts, global geopolitical instability, and the threat of trade wars cause significant uncertainty in the operating environment. Especially regarding fuel price and availability, there are risks associated with the war in the Middle East and the potential prolongation of peace negotiations, which, if realized, could have a negative impact on Finnair’s capacity and financial result. The increase in costs related to environmental regulation also continues to burden Finnair’s profitability during the year. The risks are described in more detail in the section Significant risks and uncertainty factors.
Guidance (revised)
Finnair expects the company’s revenue to be 3.4–3.5 billion euros and the comparable operating result to be 120–190 million euros in 2026. The guidance is based on the assumption that there are no significant disruptions in fuel availability.
Sensitivities to fuel price and exchange rates
Finnair’s comparable operating result is sensitive to fuel prices and exchange rates. The table below shows how a 10% change in the price of fuel or in the US dollar exchange rate against the euro would affect the comparable operating result, taking hedges into account. A strengthening of the US dollar weakens the company’s comparable operating result, while a weakening of the dollar strengthens it.
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Summer greetings from us at Finnair too! 
A brief summary of yesterday’s Q2 report, along with the Q&A regarding it, can be found in the form of a blog post here.
The blog covers, among other things, how to interpret the guidance, what the demand situation and fuel availability look like, and what role the used A320 aircraft joining our fleet next year will play in our growth plans. Happy reading! 
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Antti and Kaisa have published a new company report on Finnair regarding Q2
Finnair achieved its best Q2 result in history during the second quarter, driven by strong unit revenues. The company raised its revenue guidance but kept its earnings guidance unchanged. Forecast revisions remained minor following the report, but we consider a raise in earnings guidance possible during the second half of the year. However, in our view, the stock is already pricing in quite strong earnings performance, and the company’s valuation is significantly higher than that of its peers. Consequently, Finnair’s 12-month return expectation remains below our high required rate of return.
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Here are Kaisa’s comments on Finnair’s July performance
Finnair’s July traffic data report was overall quite neutral. The growth in passenger numbers, sold volume, and capacity slightly exceeded our expectations, while the passenger load factor developed in line with our forecast. Exceptionally, the company did not report its unit revenue for July due to a reporting delay caused by the holiday season, so the traffic data provides more limited information than usual regarding revenue development this time. Overall, we do not see any significant pressure to change our short-term forecasts based on the report.