I disagree with this. That agreement is probably the best one can hope for. This belongs in the geopolitics threads, but here one can only state that since no one (e.g., Zelensky or Stubb) has directly rejected it, it must be taken seriously. Everyone seems to be speaking carefully.
The joy would be short-lived, for with that agreement a new war will start there after a few years.
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Finnair CEO Turkka Kuusisto spoke about the company’s business at the Investor 2025 event.
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Here is a new company report from Antti and Kaisa. 
Finnair is seeking a clear growth-driven increase in margins during the new strategy period and also strengthened its financial base for the implementation of the upcoming investment program. Although the stock’s return expectation would be strong if the financial targets are met, Finnair still has a lot to prove regarding maintaining capital-efficient and sustainably profitable growth in a shock-sensitive industry. In our assessment, the forecast-driven earnings improvement has already been priced into the stock, and thus, with a one-year horizon, the return expectation remains below our required rate of return. Therefore, we reiterate our reduce recommendation for Finnair and our target price of 2.70 euros.
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Good morning from Finnair! November traffic figures are now public.
Generally, volumes remained stable compared to a year ago. The decline in North American traffic stopped. Arrival punctuality was significantly better than last November, when heavy snowfalls caused issues. We haven’t had that problem this year, even in December yet 
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Here are Antti’s and Kaisa’s comments on Finnair’s November.
Finnair published its traffic data report for November on Friday. Overall, the report was quite neutral, as a higher passenger load factor than our forecasts compensated for volumes that fell short of our expectations. However, the report does not cause immediate pressure for changes to our Finnair Q4 forecasts.
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AI Summary of Competitor
In November 2025, Norwegian Air Shuttle carried
1.5 million passengers and achieved a record 85.5% load factor, which was a strong result driven by Christmas travel demand and the launch of new routes, even though capacity decreased slightly from the previous year, and the entire group (incl. Widerøe) carried 1.84 million passengers.
November 2025 Key Figures:
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Passengers (Norwegian): 1.5 million.
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Passengers (Group, Norwegian + Widerøe): 1.84 million.
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Load factor: 85.5% (a record for November).
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Capacity (ASK): 2,404 million seat kilometres (6% decrease from the previous year).
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Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK): 2,055 million seat kilometres (2% decrease).
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Punctuality: 82.3%.
This demonstrates strong demand as the Christmas holidays approach, and the airline prepared for a busy holiday season.
Frosty morning greetings from Finnair! 
December traffic data is out. The figures show clear growth compared to the comparison period, which was impacted by the pilots’ industrial action.
We will begin a silent period on Monday and will be back online in connection with the results announcement on 11 February. 
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So, were there as many as two days of strike and a Finnair lockout that prevented employees from working?
In December 2024, there was indeed a two-day pilots’ strike. In addition to this, the figures for that month were affected by a shorter IAU walkout as well as pilots’ bans on standby and overtime.
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Here are Antti and Kaisa’s comments on Finnair’s December traffic data.
Finnair published its traffic report for December on Thursday. Overall, the report was slightly stronger than our expectations, as passenger volumes slightly exceeded our forecasts, although the passenger load factor fell slightly more than we expected. We will update our Q4 estimates for Finnair if necessary before the financial statements bulletin, which the company will publish on Wednesday, February 11.
Here are Antti’s and Kaisa’s comments on how the opening of Emirates’ Helsinki–Dubai route intensifies competition in Finnair’s Middle East traffic.
The opening of Emirates’ Helsinki–Dubai route intensifies competition in Finnair’s Middle East traffic, but in our assessment, the direct financial impact of the opening will remain limited. The news does, however, highlight the already challenging competitive environment in long-haul traffic.
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Antti and Kaisa’s assessment is likely quite accurate considering the big picture, but I personally don’t believe there is room for two wide-body aircraft daily on the Helsinki-Dubai route. Finnair probably doesn’t have many connecting flights to offer from Dubai, whereas with Emirates, you can reach practically anywhere in the Eastern and Southern hemispheres from there.
Through Doha, Finnair is able to feed passengers with the help of Qatar Airways to more or less the same routes as Emirates, so Finnair isn’t completely out of the game even after Emirates’ arrival. However, there is starting to be plenty of supply for connecting passengers heading east and south with reasonable layover times offered by Turkish, Qatar, and Emirates—and, of course, the European airlines in addition to these.
In this situation, Finnair likely has no choice before the return of Russian overflights other than to try and stay healthy in terms of its balance sheet and bottom line. Just by glancing at a globe, it is easy to see that one cannot get large passenger volumes from Helsinki except in the direction of the east. However, the company cannot survive on Finnish passengers alone.
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Specifically speaking about the Dubai route, I definitely agree that the additional capacity brought by Emirates’ daily wide-body aircraft is significant relative to the probable demand/market size. Thus, I would not be at all surprised if the pricing on said route faces pressure as supply increases when Emirates begins operations. Based on Middle East traffic data and interim reports, I would also suspect that Helsinki-Dubai as an individual route has been quite good for Finnair, as load factors rose high after the termination of Qatar’s flights from Stockholm and Copenhagen, and in my opinion, Middle Eastern average yield levels have also been good. Even though Finnair is a network carrier that optimizes the whole, there have been no onward routes from Dubai and, on the other hand, little potential for connecting traffic via Helsinki purely due to geography, so I believe analyzing the individual route is relevant.
Regarding connecting passengers, I also think the competitive landscape is exactly as you described, meaning primarily Finnair/Qatar with a transfer in Doha versus Emirates with a transfer in Dubai towards Asia, Africa, and Oceania. In direct traffic to Dubai or the United Arab Emirates, it’s then Finnair versus Emirates, and in fact, it seems Norwegian is also in the competition with a few weekly frequencies between Helsinki and Dubai operated by narrow-body aircraft.
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Emirates has not traditionally competed on price, but rather on service and quality.
Finnair has cut these from its own operations and is competing mainly with Emirates’ low-cost carrier Fly Dubai.
It will be interesting to see if Finnish customers can be found at higher prices. If I had to bet, I’d say no.
Here are Antti’s and Kaisa’s preview comments as Finnair reports its Q4 results next Wednesday
Demand for air travel has remained reasonable, and traffic data for the quarter indicates moderate growth. Relative to a strong comparison period, we estimate that Finnair’s results have been hampered by the burden of flight cancellations as well as rising biofuel costs and navigation fees. The most interesting part of the report is the earnings guidance for the current year, which we expect to indicate a clear improvement in results as the burdens of industrial actions recede. On the other hand, we do not expect Finnair to pay a dividend for what has been an exceptionally fragmented year.
Here are Antti’s and Kaisa’s comments on Finnair’s performance in January
Finnair published its January traffic data report on Thursday. Overall, the report was quite neutral, as a passenger load factor higher than our forecasts compensated for volumes that fell short of our expectations. As a positive addition, the company introduced unit revenue as a new metric in the report, which improves the accuracy of monthly monitoring. We will update our view on Finnair after the release of next week’s financial statements bulletin.
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Good morning from Finnair! It is a pleasure to share that we announced today a strong Q4 result 
Revenue remained stable, but the comparable operating result grew by 29%. The Board of Directors proposes a capital repayment of EUR 0.09 per share to shareholders for 2025.
This year, we anticipate revenue to be EUR 3.3–3.4 billion and the comparable operating result to be EUR 120–190 million.
More detailed information about last year will be available in the form of an annual report in a couple of weeks. Also, remember that the Annual General Meeting is already approaching on 24 March. Hope to see you there!
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Greetings to the Finnair thread 
Finnair’s revenue growth in Q4 fell slightly short of our estimates, increasing by about one percent to EUR 790 million. On the other hand, the company reported an adjusted operating profit of EUR 62 million, representing an excellent adjusted operating margin of 7.8%. This was the best Q4 result in the company’s history and clearly exceeded both our (EUR 42 million) and consensus estimates (EUR 43 million). The earnings beat was essentially driven by lower-than-expected costs. Maintenance costs in particular were lower than our projections, although this is inherently a fairly volatile item.
Below the line, Finnair recorded non-recurring items of approximately EUR 15 million, mostly related to changes in defined benefit pensions, exchange rates, and the profit impact from the acquisition of previously leased aircraft. Depreciation and financial expenses were slightly lower than expected, while taxes were recorded roughly in line with our expectations. Consequently, Finnair’s Q4 EPS was EUR 0.13, exceeding our estimate.
Finnair’s financial position remains in reasonable shape, and the company can well afford the EUR 0.09 dividend proposed by the Board. We had not expected the company to distribute a dividend at all, so the proposal clearly exceeded our forecast. Soft metrics on the customer side also developed favorably, as the NPS (Net Promoter Score) reflecting customer satisfaction increased compared to the comparison period.
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Here is the company report on Finnair from Antti and Kaisa following Q4.
Finnair delivered a strong finish in Q4 to a disrupted year marked by industrial action, which, contrary to our expectations, also enabled the return of capital to shareholders. Guidance for the current year’s results, on the other hand, was in line with our and the market’s expectations. We made mainly slightly positive adjustments to our forecasts for the coming years. In our view, yesterday’s 16% share price increase loaded the stock with excessively high expectations, especially when compared to industry sector valuations, meaning the expected return for the stock over the next year remains unsatisfactory in our base case scenario. Consequently, we are lowering our recommendation for Finnair to Sell (prev. Reduce), but we are raising our target price to EUR 3.00 (prev. EUR 2.70) following the forecast upgrades and a lower required rate of return.
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