Faron Pharmaceuticals - Innovative Medical Solutions (Part 1)

[Vino_Pino]

@Viljo_Lehtinen

The only thing that caught my eye in terms of schedule in the redeye interview related to this risk-reward section was the comparison of potential partner types. The section described, by way of example, a large player as a negotiating party, who is interested and, due to their own portfolio, has an interest in the entire package and even specifically in solid tumors. Attracting such a party versus a more limited partner deal reward is certainly appealing.

Closing the aforementioned deal with satisfactory contract terms might require some preliminary results for solid tumors as well. If this were the case, then the timeline would indeed be more like autumn 2025 or would reasonably likely extend to early 2026.

This is perhaps a scenario I identified where the timeline could stretch beyond what you described. What do you think of this hypothesis?

If blood and solid cancers go into the same deal, the solid tumor side will initially suffer, and with solid tumors being larger, at least the upfront nature of the entire deal will suffer. Whether this then poses a risk to Faron if others pay for almost all future expenses is a good question.

The basis for BP’s very back-loaded deal for solid tumors could be the modest but existing MATINS data with Bex alone, i.e., as monotherapy for solid tumors. There is no clinical combination data with PD-1, but the biological “should work when Clever-1 is positive and IFN-gamma is low, meaning no inflammatory reaction is ongoing” rationale exists, from which it has been deduced that “20-30% of cancers could be Bex’s market.” The possibility of a deal exists as early as spring 2025.

Generally, timelines are flexible and specifically tend to move forward… an exception would be if Faron rushed to start r/r MDS marketing authorization negotiations with the FDA, should good MDS responses come in at the end of Q1. That is still speculation. Thus, it is certainly possible that Proof of Concept data for melanomas and NSCLC will only be read in early 2026. The trial is reported to be completed in Q425. A partner deal for solid tumors might go to January 2026, one cannot know. If so, there should be enough money until the end of Q126, due to covenants. That means an additional year of funding, perhaps 30 MEUR.

If that amount had to be sought externally, e.g., through an offering, which, according to Juho’s earlier statement, “is no longer coming” as a public offering, then both r/r MDS and first-line MDS would have had to go wrong. If both had failed, a partner deal would not have been made, and thus no upfront payment and no milestone payment for the start of Phase 3 would be available. Nor would BP have been willing to make even a back-loaded solid tumor deal (which Faron would certainly try if MDS partnering didn’t happen) already this spring, meaning a triple failure. Anything is possible to go wrong, but it’s not the most probable scenario.