Here are mine and Roni’s main observations from yesterday’s investor day. A lot of detailed information was available, so by listening to the entire event or going through the presentation slides, you can still find many more nuggets of information.
15 Likes
Edit. the video didn’t follow the link, so I’ll put it directly here as well:
12 Likes
Fsecure is also among those who benefit from falling interest rates.
The company has not disclosed the loan details, but I have calculated them from the reports as follows:
-the total interest rate on the term loan taken for the acquisition of Lookout was about 7% at the beginning of 2024.
-the company has stated that the market interest rate has an impact. Amortizations are in Q2 and Q4, so most likely 6-month Euribor.
-in addition, the company benefits from an ambitious loan repayment schedule. Repayment schedule 15 million per 6 months. → Reducing the interest calculation base.
-the impact of financing costs on operating profit is significant. Operating profit 1-9/2024 = 31.7 million and financing costs for the same period 10.2 million.
16 Likes
I asked about interest rates at the investor day, and the debts were tied to 3-month Euribor. A decrease in financing costs can indeed nicely support EPS.
21 Likes
Here are Aten’s brief comments on the outcome of the change negotiations.
7 Likes
TOTAL third on the list 
Most popular Black Friday products:
-
Samsung Bespoke Jet Bot Combo AI VR7MD97714G/WA -robot vacuum cleaner
-
Apple iPhone 13 5G 4GB RAM 128GB -smartphone
-
F-Secure TOTAL -security software
-
Apple iPad 10.9" 64GB 2022 (10th Generation) -tablet
-
Apple iPhone 15 5G 6GB RAM 128GB -smartphone
-
Sony PlayStation 5 Slim Digital Edition 1TB (PS5) -game console
-
OnePlus 12 5G Dual SIM 12GB RAM 256GB -smartphone
-
Apple AirPods Pro (2nd Generation) 2023 USB C -headphones
-
OnePlus Nord 4 5G Dual SIM 12GB RAM 256GB -smartphone
-
Apple AirPods (4th Generation) Wireless In-ear -headphones
Source: Don’t let the title fool you, this list does not include the most egregious fake discounts.
7 Likes
I’ve been using the Total software for a couple of months; I got it for free with OP’s free Platinum card, so I took it.
The idea is really good, but the implementation would still require a bit of refinement.
The VPN doesn’t work with all sites; some emails don’t come through, for example.
Settings are divided into two places and otherwise difficult to use if you want to customize it to your liking; it prevents access to many important websites with default settings.
Customer service is a bit vague, not available in Finnish and English at all times, which can bother some customers who don’t know which language will be used to respond at any given time.
The product is clearly intended to bring comprehensive computer security management to one place and into the customer’s own hands, reliably and easily. No one else has yet offered it to the average user [Even the grandma in the cottage, who also needs it out of necessity]; experts are, of course, a separate group who customize a suitable package for themselves from separate software and free services.
But the basic idea is good: all services on one page, and the customer can easily tick what they want to use at any given time (VPN, browsing protection, passwords, identity management). In the near future, VPN will be practically mandatory for everyone operating online, as will identity management when looking at news of successful phishing attempts, and dozens of passwords. Up until now, they have all come from different places.
A typical situation for a Finnish company: a great product is made, but the money, desire, or resources are no longer sufficient to finalize the implementation, to raise the important user experience from 90% to 100%. US software companies have sufficient funding for that last laborious and expensive, but crucial phase of implementation, which is often not the case in Finland. That final polish in a software product requires a significant portion of the entire project’s costs, because it is the most difficult part that determines which product conquers the market. Enormous refinement based on customer feedback, which often deviates from the original definition and the views of IT expert designers whose expertise is on a completely different level than that of laypeople, who constitute the majority of customers.
From the management’s perspective, the product is now ready, and that’s why co-determination negotiations (YT) could be held. That crucial final refinement [unnecessary in management’s opinion, “just engineers striving for perfection”] might be left undone, hopefully not.
I’m considering building an initial position; I already placed an order on Wednesday but it hasn’t been executed yet. In any case, the product has the potential to make a big global breakthrough if small improvements are still made.
19 Likes
Good thoughts, Zizzler, and I largely think the same way.
Background: I personally got Total through DNA’s campaign at half price. I’ve used it on a computer, but not on a phone. I canceled Total after the campaign ended because my own skill level is sufficient to operate with free solutions. In any case, I found Total to be very functional and easy to use, so I might consider returning as a paying customer. Especially as a parent, I could get security for my children’s phone and computer use, as juniors easily click from one link to another without much thought.
Below are my own thoughts on Total
-
Device protection works effortlessly and it’s simple to scan the computer
-
Scam protection is implemented through a browser extension. I think it works well, and websites that require confirmation are effortless to add to the approved list
-
Personal data monitoring includes a neat feature that allows you to check if your email, phone number, credit card, etc., have been compromised in a data breach. My old email has been compromised, and it revealed a password that has fallen into the wrong hands.
-
Overview is good, all of Total’s features are easily found in one view
-
VPN significantly slows down internet browser usage for me, at least. This should be resolved. I can’t say how much the connection speed affects this; I have 450 mbps 5G.
-
I did not try the password vault.
The user interface certainly has potential, and utilizing partnership channels is a big plus. Now the focus should really be on refining even the small things that annoy customers.
18 Likes
Here is a high-quality article written by Antti Leinonen about F-Secure. 
If F-Secure succeeds in growing its sales, the business scales quickly, meaning the company does not need new resources to generate revenue. F-Secure’s profitability is at an excellent level, but according to Koyfin’s data, it is on a downward trend. This is largely due to the acquisition and Lookout’s lower profitability. The free cash flow margin has remained at an excellent level.
16 Likes
Usually, F-Secure’s board plans have not generated much excitement, as the composition has remained relatively the same. With today’s announcement, however, Siilasmaa is leaving the board, and at least initially, two international figures are joining in his place.
9 Likes
This is what the journey of WithSecure, founded by Siilasmaa, looks like. No value has been created; instead, it has remained at least flat for over 20 years. I appreciate Siilasmaa, and it’s a pleasure to listen to him in various podcasts. He is among the wisest people I know in the Finnish investment scene. Nevertheless, it must be stated that the demerged companies have been complete flops on the stock market, and Siilasmaa’s departure from the board is, in my opinion, a breath of fresh air.
2 Likes
Well, it hasn’t been a parade march in recent years. The announcement somehow gave the feeling that with F-Secure’s new developments, would this also mark the beginning of Siilasmaa’s divestment process? I.e., would F-Secure have recognized the need for greater scale/resources in the future? Who knows.
3 Likes
This was my first thought - Siilasmaa is leaving and now the sale of the whole place is being considered.
And that would be a pretty smart solution IMHO.
9 Likes
Not a huge return, of course, but if one bought 20 years ago, it’s 125% plus with dividends.
Didn’t this happen with Comptel’s board? Two weeks and the company sold, if history is any guide.
1 Like
Here are Ate’s and Roni’s pre-comments as F-Secure reports its Q4 results on Thursday at 8:00 AM.
F-Secure will report its Q4 results on Thursday around 8:00 AM. Our revenue forecast, roughly at the midpoint of the guidance range, expects growth to have turned slightly negative at the end of the year due to challenges related to certain partners. We expect the operating profit to have been at the level of the comparison period. The main point of interest in the report will naturally be the outlook and guidance for the current year. In the big picture, expectations for 2025 are quite moderate, as the company commented at its November investor day that this year is still a ramp-up year. The fruits of growth investments will be better observed in 2026, and with the stock’s moderate current valuation, there is plenty of potential if development progresses towards the targets.
7 Likes
Here is F-Secure’s Financial Statement Release; we are still waiting for Ate’s comment on the results 
:
Key events in October–December 2024
- Revenue was at the comparison period’s level, 37.0 million euros (36.9 million euros). Organic growth was 0.4 percent.
- Partner channel revenue was at the comparison period’s level, 30.0 million euros (30.1 million euros). Organic growth was 0.5 percent.
- Adjusted EBITA was 11.8 million euros (11.7 million euros), representing 31.8 percent of revenue (31.7%).
- Earnings per share were 0.02 euros (0.02 euros). Earnings per share excluding depreciation of intangible assets arising from business acquisitions were 0.03 euros (0.03 euros).
- With the gearing ratio (3.1x) being higher than the target level, the Board proposes to the Annual General Meeting that a dividend of 0.04 euros per share be distributed.
Outlook for 2025
Growth: F-Secure expects mid-single-digit revenue growth for 2025.
Profitability: The Group’s adjusted EBITA is estimated to be at the same level as in 2024 (52.2 million euros).
9 Likes
Do you know what’s quite infuriating? It’s that a Finnish listed company gladly reports the following in its earnings release:
- gross margin
- EBITDA
- EBITA
- operating profit
- cash flow from operations
- earnings per share
But for some reason, they don’t bother to state what the net profit after taxes was. I don’t understand why they are so lazy or want to hide the figures. And yes, I know all the figures can be found in the appendices, but it would be nice to see them in the release itself too.
Regarding the results themselves, we’re treading water, nothing seems to be happening, and that’s why I don’t believe F-Secure has a bright future as an independent listed company either.
9 Likes
Here are the first impressions:
This year was already set to be the ramp-up year for the Tier1 strategy, and in terms of results, we are still in a holding pattern. From the stock’s perspective, it would be crucial for earnings growth to start accelerating in 2026-2027. We will have to wait a while longer for that. However, no significant expectations are currently priced into the stock’s valuation either.
14 Likes
Surprisingly strong share price reaction to a highly anticipated result. @Atte_Riikola’s forecasts spot on again. Growth is indeed sluggish even though Lookout provided access to the US where the economy is hot. Why is growth still so anemic? In Europe, the consumer’s position is better understood.
9 Likes