Evolution AB - The King of iGaming

Citigroup has downgraded Evolution from buy to neutral, setting a target price of 630 Swedish kronor, according to Bloomberg News (BN).

STOCKHOLM (Nyhetsbyrån Direkt) Investment bank Citi sees changing competitive landscapes as a theme in its coverage of igaming in 2026 in the form of forecast markets. In a sector analysis, the bank points out Hacksaw as a sector favorite. According to Citi, Hacksaw has attractive growth prospects with limited risk from sweepstakes exposure. Evolution is simultaneously downgraded to neutral from buy with a target price of 630 kronor, which Nyhetsbyrån Direkt reported earlier on Tuesday. “Continued headwinds from cyberattacks in Asia make us more cautious about the visibility of Evo’s medium-term results as we lack a clear picture of when a solution might be in place,” the bank writes.

Citigroup revised its rating from buy to neutral and subsequently lowered its target.

Share repurchases continued

Evolution AB (publ) (“Evolution”) has, during the period 01 December - 05 December, acquired a total of 142,000 own shares within the framework of the repurchase programme introduced by the board of directors to improve the capital structure of Evolution by reducing the capital, and thereby creating added shareholder value.

Following the above acquisitions, Evolution’s holding of own shares amounted to 5,102,409 as of 05 December 2025. The total number of shares in Evolution is 204,462,162.

Evolution already holds about 2.5% of the share capital through share repurchases.

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New update TOP 10 owners as of November. Kenneth and Capital Group as the biggest additions. Otherwise no major changes.

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Picked from X: player counts ATH, course at 5-year lows. I don’t know how reliable these player trackers are, but apparently player counts continue to grow.

Additionally, Trump is considering removing taxation on gambling winnings.

https://x.com/TomAlphaTrades/status/1999164658435887494?t=JYU0NAvXO1PRTwRLQCzFWA&s=19

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Here, too, the Ice Fishing game was discussed, with people saying it’s a terrible game and has terrible player numbers. It seems to be a “late bloomer,” as player numbers in this game have risen quite sharply recently, and it must also be taken into account that the game is significantly faster-paced than, for example, Crazy Time. Therefore, it drains players’ money much faster than other games.
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Yes, it seems that Ice Fishing has indeed started more vigorously recently, if the curves hold true. On the other hand, gameplay and visibility fuel each other, and the game rises higher on the lists with larger player numbers.

\u003e Evolution AB (publ) (“Evolution”) has, during the period 08 December - 08 December, acquired a total of 133,140 own shares within the framework of the repurchase programme introduced by the board of directors to improve the capital structure of Evolution by reducing the capital, and thereby creating added shareholder value. The repurchase program is thereby completed and closed.

Waiting for a new buyback program?

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https://www.marketscreener.com/news/barclays-sees-weak-outlook-for-evolution-downgrades-stock-two-notches-bn-ce7d50dcd989f320 another new outlook downgrade from the analyst “The target price is cut to SEK 575 (from 890)”. “Barclays sees weaker performance in the Asian market. At the same time, the North American market is also performing poorly.” I don’t know what data the analyst is relying on, as at least with that tracker, Asia has seen a clear bounce from Q3 and in overall player numbers.

Punainenkala also mentioned the growth in player numbers and the fast pace of ice fishing. Ice fishing is currently on the list of top 5 most played games. The top 5 games by percentage per median player count are 1. Crazy time 21% 2. Funky time 11% 3. monopoly big balls 10% 4. Ice fishing 6.5% 5. Crazy time A 6.5%

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There’s a pretty simple formula for these recommendations: when the price goes up, the target price is set above the price, and when the price comes down, the target price is set below the current price.

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It would indeed be interesting to know the sources of those who have recently lowered their forecasts regarding “decreased player numbers”.

So far, I only know of those already mentioned here: evodata.vercel.app and livecasino.watch, both of which predict a rather good Q4. Especially the former predicts even growth from Q4 a year ago (when the stock price was also SLIGHTLY higher).

Also in Asia, a jump in player numbers has been seen after Q3, when the CEO (TJ) stated that the precautionary measures were excessive and that their dismantling would explain the growth:

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Something small about the Southeast Asian iGaming buzz popped up in the Yahoo news. Some outfit has done some quite professional research, at a quite professional price:
The “Southeast Asia iGaming Market Opportunity, Growth Drivers, Industry Trend Analysis, and Forecast 2025-2034” has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com’s offering.

The chance-based gaming category generated USD 0.66 billion in 2024 and is forecast to grow at an estimated CAGR of 20.7% from 2025 to 2034. These formats tend to attract widespread participation due to ease of play, straightforward mechanics, and immediate engagement, which support high-frequency user interaction and ongoing interest.

The mobile gaming platforms reached USD 0.83 billion in 2024, holding a 65.5% share. Widespread smartphone penetration, enhanced processing power, advanced graphics technology, and rapid network connectivity, including 5G, have greatly improved the mobile gaming environment. As a result, mobile gaming offers accessibility, affordability, and convenience, making it one of the most engaging and monetizable channels within the regional iGaming sector.
Southeast Asia iGaming Market Opportunity, Growth Drivers, Industry Trend Analysis, and Forecast 2025-2034

If even the mobile penetration is 65.5%, there is still plenty of empty space there. The report would certainly be interesting evening reading.

Anyway.
Since people have already been hyping it up to the taxi stands that, according to trackers, player counts are on the rise, I decided, like a tinfoil hat wearer, to verify the matter with some empirical research - i.e., by spending all my extra free time in the Evolution lobby.

There has been a decent amount of people in the lobby, and now as Friday evening sets in, we are heading towards riches with a crowd of 77,000–90,000 players.

Small observations:

  • MONOPOLY Big Baller players are on the rise since I last saw; the collaboration with Hasbro would seem somewhat successful, at least based on player numbers. Since the Monopoly bonus game is as long as a year of famine, once you get there with your own money, you hope that stroll with Milburn would last even longer.
    Currently, 11,000–15,000 players are grinding the game.
  • All-time favorite Crazy Time is being played by 15,000–25,000 players.

The Ice Fishing hype mentioned earlier on the channel is indeed quite nicely present still, with thousands of players playing, all the way up to +7,000 players, when after the release people only talked about a few hundred players. Now there are 5,200 players grinding away.

It is also interesting to follow the player development of the new Red Baron, as this interactive ‘flight simulator’ is still flown by an average of hundreds of players. A fun game, at least in my opinion.

The Baccarat & Sic Bo category was left unexamined without regret; it’s such erotic and stylish action that you shouldn’t play these kinds of games in front of your wife, or otherwise…

I consider myself a damn good gambler, but goddammit, I have to admit that I did lose money here. During the research, I accumulated over a thousand game rounds, with a return percentage (RTP) of 95.6%. Total turnover was worth over €2,000, and losses were ultimately around a hundred euros. Let it be said that if any money had been left over from this adventure, my own shares would have naturally flown to the moon.

So, based on my research period, I could consider the trackers’ data points to be sincere and player numbers to be slightly refreshed, provided this growth also shows up in Evolution’s next report as regional growth percentages, dollars, and euros.

Ps. I am also looking forward with interest to further news on the progress of the Galaxy Gaming merger and Evolution’s attempt to conquer land-based casinos.

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I went for some test flights in the Red Baron game today. In my opinion, it’s also a fun and interesting game. Earlier, I trashed Ice Fishing here as boring and unimaginative, and I didn’t really see it succeeding. At the time of writing, there are 6,200 players fishing; hooking (hehe) the players seems to have succeeded. If I have to be wrong about something, I’d rather it be things like this.

Now for some experiences and thoughts on Red Baron, which I got stuck playing for a surprisingly long time. In the game, a plane ascends as the multiplier increases, and you can cash out your winnings at any time (except occasionally there are completely empty rounds where everything is lost). The core of the game is that at some point, the plane “flies away,” and if the winnings haven’t been cashed out before then, the player loses. Game rounds are fast here too, so at least there should be some significant betting volume.

Initially, I was a bit disappointed until I found the button to add up to three different bets, which allows for collecting smaller wins and chasing bigger ones in the same round. I think that’s a simple but extremely effective way to add more interest (and stakes) to the game. In the game, you can see the total number of “tickets” purchased for the flight and when players cash out their winnings, and I was surprised by how many “took the money” at even 1.05-1.5x multipliers. The highest multiplier I witnessed went up to 495x; at that point, only two tickets out of ~200 were left, and the largest successful cash-out was ~400x. Based on this, one could think the game serves almost all types of players, and with three tickets, you can employ different “strategies.” Full automation is also possible with a customizable auto-cashout if you’re into that.

The maximum multiplier in the game is 20,000x, but having witnessed that 495x flight mentioned earlier, I don’t think many fly all the way to the end, which likely protects the casino and Evolution from massive one-time payouts compared to, say, Crazy Time, where a possible 500x win could hit thousands of players in the same round. Some Crazy Time record jackpot even showed up in a quarterly report, didn’t it?

For me, the last time a game felt this “addictive” was Crazy Time in its early days, so I’d predict success for this one. If I’m as wrong as I was with Ice Fishing, then maybe my preferences just differ significantly from the average player. I think it’s good, though, that there are other options besides those digital wheel games.

The only downside I can think of is the hosts, several of whom repeated the highest multipliers from the last hour/day/week or whatever. I don’t know if players are asking for them or why they are repeated constantly at times, or if they just have nothing else to talk about. I’d rather listen to, for instance, how the host thinks a perfect iced coffee is made. Hosts are a big part of these live games, especially game shows, so I’d hope they’d pick the “cream of the crop” for these. A plus for the mute button found in this game, which only mutes the host while the game sounds stay on.

Let’s see in a few months how this evaluation turned out.

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Kenneth Dart has increased his stake in Flutter to 15%.

Both Evolution and Flutter have the same major shareholder, which inevitably leads one to outline future steps. Speculating a bit;

  • One has the world’s best live casino content, the other has the largest distribution channels and customer volumes
  • Together: content + distribution + scale
  • Cooperation will inevitably deepen through the ownership base even without a merger
  • The result; the margins and competitive advantages of both will strengthen, making it even harder for competitors to get in between?

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/kenneth-dart-increases-stake-in-flutter-to-15-percent-ce7e58dbda8cf227

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I’m also nicely in the red on my Evos, but isn’t that price level starting to be quite low? Has competition intensified significantly or what? There were issues in Georgia, and I guess in Asia as well, and regulation? Was there anything else? Are the earnings still declining, and does anyone have access to a proper analysis?

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Player counts can only be approximated, but at least I have set a Google Sheets trigger to fetch player counts from the page “https://api-cs.casino.org/cg-neptune-notification-center/api/evolobby/playercount/latest” and it has been running since mid-December. Player counts have remained steady in January compared to December, even though there was a lot of activity in the games during the December holidays. Additionally, if you believe the tracker found on the “https://evodata.vercel.app/” site, the number of players increased by a third during October. I don’t know what logic the site uses to calculate player counts. Summa summarum, if the Q4 result is good, then at least so far January has gone very well. I believe that the Evolution case closely resembles the Neste case, where sentiment was so dark that the company would never make money from its own business again.

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I believe the annual ICE trade show is starting in Barcelona today. If you’re active on X, try digging around for tweets from attendees. I’m curious to know what EVO’s booth is like this year and if there are, for example, any game reveals for this year?

EDIT: Evolution has just released their own press release with more details. It seems to be heavily focused on the Hasbro partnership, with Monopoly-themed content in the works.

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I spotted this tweet myself, from someone attending the trade show. This “Game Night Live” is quite interesting. I had somehow thought that the collaboration with Hasbro was only related to Monopoly, but the partnership also includes other classic Hasbro games, which have now been turned into “gambling” versions. The reel seemed to feature at least:

  • Hungry Hungry Hippos
  • Connect 4
  • Battleship
  • Snakes & Ladders

https://x.com/Pierreobv/status/2013168700807856549

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I’m tempted to jump back in at these prices, but I’m trying to force myself to sit on my hands until the report.

It seems there will be quite a bit of headwind for Q4 revenue from currency exchange rates; for example, North America is taking an -8% hit solely due to currency when comparing Y-o-Y figures. In Asia, currencies presumably important to Evo (CNY, THB, INR, PHP) have also weakened, so there will probably be a hit there as well. Operationally, this doesn’t matter at all, but the reported figures might still spook investors and open up a better buying opportunity.

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Does the Swedish krona exchange rate affect this at all? I don’t know anything about how these currency matters work, other than that the rate is quoted in kronor :smiley:

This has probably been discussed at some point in the thread already, but I guess others are wondering about this too.

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In practice, it has no impact because EVO’s reporting currency is the euro. The only thing the krona exchange rate affects is the revenue generated in Sweden and the expenses paid there, which are converted into euros in the reports.

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