Earnings performance July–September 2024 (comparison period 7–9/2023)
Net sales were EUR 24.5 million (EUR 25.9 million). Comparable net sales adjusted for the impact of corporate restructurings were EUR 24.5 million (EUR 23.7 million) Inde: €26.3 million
The Group’s operating profit for the review period was EUR 10.5 million (EUR 10.2 million). Comparable operating profit adjusted for the impact of corporate restructurings was EUR 10.6 million (EUR 10.0 million). Inde: €12.1 million
Diluted earnings per share was EUR 0.27 (EUR 0.28). Inde: €0.33
Evli’s Q3 results fell short of our expectations despite profitability remaining at an excellent level. However, the earnings miss was driven by more one-off items, which clearly reduced its significance. Forecast changes were mainly limited to cost estimates, following which our operating profit forecasts for the coming years decreased by a couple of percent. The stock’s current valuation is still not overly demanding, so the expected return in our calculations is good. We reiterate our EUR 22.0 target price and Accumulate recommendation.
Evli’s monthly performance was moderate, as the company’s funds saw net inflows of EUR 26 million in October. The majority of this was directed into long-term bond funds and balanced funds. Redemptions were mainly focused on short-term bond funds and equity funds with more attractive fee levels. Overall, the month’s performance remained relatively neutral.
The decrease in revenue comes precisely from that arrangement. The biggest impact is from the one-time revenue of EUR 13.8 million, which was recorded in the first quarter of the current year. Naturally, this will no longer occur next year. Furthermore, only the share of profit, not revenue, will be recorded from Allshares going forward, which explains the rest. The asset management business is also expected to see revenue growth next year.
Evli has launched a new fund of funds-structured PE fund. Sales have also started quite well, with 75 MEUR in capital raised in the first closing. While quite small in the grand scheme of things, it nevertheless instills confidence in the competitiveness of Evli’s alternative fund business. PE funds, in general, seem to be performing better than several other unlisted asset classes across the entire market at the moment.
Those following the company have also surely noted that Evli once again ranked among the best large asset managers in a study conducted by SFR. Let’s also link this here:
Evli’s month was somewhat subdued, and capital was redeemed from the company’s funds, totaling approximately EUR 42 million net. The redemptions were mainly directed at equity funds with a healthy fee level. However, new capital flowed into bond funds, which balanced the development.
Could someone wiser kindly tell me how these Evli active global equity funds are still operating when they have been underperforming their benchmark indices for years? I opened all the global equity funds on Evli’s website, and six out of seven funds are significantly behind their own benchmark index.
Evli Nordic Countries:
Evli North America:
Evli World X:
Evli World:
Evli Japan:
Evli Europe:
And finally, the only global fund that has beaten its own index is Evli GEM:
Are clients not interested in returns, or how can these continue with such performances?
So, these have done quite well for 20 years, but have now missed the rise of the Magnificent 7 stocks in recent years, as almost the entire return of the US index comes from them. Additionally, funds have fees, while an index does not.
Evli’s month was somewhat subdued, with a net total of approximately EUR 30 million redeemed from the company’s funds. Redemptions were mainly directed at short-term interest rate funds with moderate fee levels and equity funds with healthy fee levels, so the overall development can be considered slightly negative. A positive aspect, however, was that significant new capital flowed into long-term interest rate funds, which, in our view, stems from the company’s strong position in fixed income asset management. The entire calendar year was somewhat subdued in terms of sales for the company, as cumulative net subscriptions were only positive by approximately EUR 110 million (1.1% of assets at the beginning of the year).
INVITATION: Evli Plc to publish its 2024 results on January 29, 2025
Evli Plc’s financial statement release for January-December 2024 will be published on Wednesday, January 29, 2025, at approximately 11:00 a.m. After its publication, the review will be available on the company’s website evli.com/investor-relations.
Here are Kassu’s pre-earnings comments as Evli publishes its Q4 results next Wednesday.
We expect the company’s key financial figures to have developed favorably, even though the group-level result is declining in our forecasts due to significant non-recurring income items in the comparison period. Asset management’s new sales, on the other hand, developed modestly at the end of the year, so in addition to the financial figures, our interest will again focus on management’s comments regarding the demand outlook for asset management.
The stock’s expected return is good
We consider a P/E 17–18x range an acceptable valuation level for Evli, taking into account the company’s competitive products, the strong long-term earnings growth outlook enabled by them, and the company’s moderate risk level. In addition, the company’s growth ties up only limited capital, which has a positive impact on the accepted valuation level. Based on the current year’s estimated earnings, the P/E ratio is approximately 16x, which falls below our applied range. We therefore believe that earnings growth (~5%) and an earnings-based dividend yield (6–7%) offer the stock an attractive expected return against a moderate risk level. In addition to this, the expected return receives slight support in our calculations from an increase in multiples, as the stock’s current pricing is moderate.
Evli is a nice stock to own, when even on the Inderes forum, the company’s thread activity resembles this:
Anyways, yesterday was the annual general meeting and today the stock will likely fall due to the ex-dividend date. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be a video recording of the meeting available, so @Kasper_Mellas and other sales representatives still have work to do regarding video sync. My fervent wish is that the company could appear in some Inderes format at least once a year, be it Pörssisijoittajan päivä or something else.
The materials for the annual general meeting can be found here, and the CEO’s review here
In addition, Kasper commented on the February fund report last week. Evli did quite well:
“Evli’s funds saw a significant inflow of new capital, and net subscriptions ended up in positive territory at 162 MEUR. However, there was a shift from equity funds towards bond funds with a more moderate fee level, which dampens the positive impact of sales on fee income.”
It’s good to remember that today we’ll see a dip due to this dividend, as poutapilviä reminded. I’ve also been focused on other stocks, and this one has received less attention in comments. It’s nice to own this one. ROI over 15% and ROE over 30%
EVLI PLC STOCK EXCHANGE RELEASE 18 MARCH 2025 AT 1:00 P.M. (EET/EEST)
Resolutions of Evli Plc’s Annual General Meeting and Board of Directors on 18 March 2025
Evli Plc’s Annual General Meeting held on 18 March 2025 adopted the financial statements and granted discharge from liability to the members of the Board of Directors and the CEO for the financial year 2024.
In accordance with the Board of Directors’ proposal, the Annual General Meeting resolved that a dividend of 1.18 euros per share be paid for the financial year 2024. The dividend will be paid to shareholders who are registered in the company’s shareholder register maintained by Euroclear Finland Oy on the record date for dividend payment, 20 March 2025. The dividend will be paid on 27 March 2025.
I’ve also been focused on other stocks, and this one has received less attention in comments. It’s nice to own this one. ROI over 15% and ROE over 30%