Evli - pure asset manager

Hey,

They surely didn’t go into management’s pockets, did they :purse: :thinking: So, the deal in Q3 was that performance fees increased by 10 MEUR, but net profit exceeded expectations by 0.6 MEUR. Let’s find out where this 9.4 MEUR disappeared! :magnifying_glass_tilted_left: :detective:

In asset management, other revenue lines were broadly in line, but expenses were 1.4 MEUR higher. Now 8.0 MEUR remaining.

The investment bank’s quarter was very weak, adding another 1.4 MEUR in negative impact from here. Now 6.6 MEUR remaining.

The group’s own balance sheet returns were weak, bringing -0.6 MEUR of bad news from here. 6.0 MEUR remaining.

Group-level expenses were -1.7 MEUR more than expected (mainly 40th-anniversary celebrations). Now 4.3 MEUR remaining.

Minority interest in earnings was over 3 MEUR higher than expected. This was due to performance fees mainly coming from a couple of funds with significant minority ownership (this was discussed a couple of messages ago). When you add a slightly higher tax rate than expected, we arrive at a net profit exceeding forecasts by 0.6 MEUR. So, that 9.4 MEUR didn’t go to management, except perhaps some crumbs as increased bonus provisions :hand_with_index_finger_and_thumb_crossed:

No interpretations should be made from Evli’s guidance. The company usually guides for a profitable result, which is largely a joke, as the company was last unprofitable on an annual basis during the tech bubble hangover in the early 2000s. Even on a quarterly basis, losses have probably only occurred once in its stock market history. Why doesn’t Evli provide more detailed guidance? One reason is that the company’s results are sensitive to capital market movements, which makes forecasting difficult. Another is that the company has clearly chosen a policy of never having to issue a profit warning in any scenario.

In its 30th anniversary year, the company did not distribute an additional dividend, but that option is not entirely ruled out. For example, the company’s balance sheet would certainly allow for a symbolic 40-cent dividend. However, I wouldn’t base an investment case on this.

@Vaari-1958 Over 70% of Evli’s client assets come from Finland, so in this sense, the company is dependent on Finland. However, this capital is invested globally, and Finland’s weight in investments is certainly less than 10%. But of course, client sentiment is also affected by the Helsinki stock exchange’s performance. Many clients, however, have a structural overweight in Finland (direct equities, etc.).

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