If they are flying 2-5 kilometers on the Russian side along the border lines of the Baltic states, it’s quite tricky for Russia to even try shooting them down without firing into the territory of the Baltic states.
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Preliminary weak signals suggest that Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will not take on Orbán’s mantle as the head of the pro-Putin movement in the European Union, even though Fico is apparently traveling to Moscow to watch the Victory Day parade.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico on May 2 and invited him to Kyiv a week ahead of Fico’s planned trip to Moscow for the May 9 Victory Day parade.
Fico supports Ukraine’s EU membership.
But Zelensky said the two countries need to have “strong relations” and that the two leaders should meet in person soon. Zelensky reciprocated Fico’s invitation to Bratislava and thanked him for supporting Ukraine’s EU accession bid.
For his part, Fico also emphasized the importance of good relations between Kyiv and Bratislava and reiterated his support for Ukraine’s EU membership.
Apparently, Orbán’s monumental drubbing in the elections did not go unnoticed by Fico, and the political momentum is now moving toward Ukraine.
Despite previous comments parroting Russian propaganda about the war in Ukraine, Fico went on to voice support for Kyiv’s diplomatic position in peace negotiations with Moscow.
Fico’s position is nowhere near as strong as Orbán’s was during his 16 years of consolidating power.
Fico has faced opposition at home for his Kremlin-friendly position, including widespread protests. Since returning to power in 2023, the populist leader has halted Slovak military aid to Ukraine and opposed EU efforts to reduce energy dependence on Russia.
This should not be interpreted as a change of heart from Fico; rather, political realities do not allow for supporting Putin in the way the master of the Kremlin would like. Fico might be in Putin’s pocket, but unfortunately, he has to survive that unpleasant phenomenon of democracy known as free elections.
The next ones will be held in September 2027, and Fico’s problem is a multi-party system where his party has only 41 out of 150 seats, and the government is a coalition—similar to Finland—where, given the current distribution of seats, at least three parties are needed for a simple majority. With such a setup, there is no chance for radical changes.
Source: Next Slovak parliamentary election - Wikipedia
Of greater interest, in fact, are the French presidential elections in April 2027. In France, the president has very extensive powers and can independently decide on the nation’s foreign policy. Macron can no longer run, and everyone is interested in who will represent the far-right National Rally.
It cannot be Marine Le Pen because—surprise, surprise—the party was caught in fraud, and Le Pen was sentenced to a 5-year ban on running for office; thus, she cannot be a candidate. The party’s nominal leader, Jordan Bardella, is a likely alternative, but he lacks Le Pen’s charisma and influence among the people.
In March 2025, Marine Le Pen, a declared candidate for the National Rally, was found guilty of embezzlement of European Parliament funds.[6] She was sentenced to five years of ineligibility with immediate effect, preventing her from running in upcoming elections.[7] Previously leading in opinion polls, her conviction significantly reshaped the political landscape. She has appealed the ruling, but the ineligibility remains in force pending the appeal decision (expected on July 7, 2026).[8] Jordan Bardella is widely seen as a potential replacement candidate
Source: 2027 French presidential election - Wikipedia
In Britain, elections aren’t until 2029, and it remains to be seen whether the Conservative Party will recover from the thrashing it took in the last election or stay down on the canvas. A dark horse is the pro-Brexit Nigel Farage from the Reform Party, whose number of representatives is still small, but he is an unapologetic closet Putinist whose BS skills, fortunately, aren’t on Trump’s level—though he should not be underestimated.
Source: Next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
This is a reminder that support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia must be fought for country by country, one election at a time, for Putin’s corruption is alive and well in the heart of Europe—even if Orbán’s defeat made everything look good for a moment. We must not be lulled into a false sense of security. The next battle is already at the doorstep, and Russia’s poison will spread as long as the state exists.
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Zelensky tweets about the latest strike on Primorsk-Koivisto.
Apparently, a Karakurt-class vessel, a shadow fleet tanker, and infrastructure were damaged.
Karakurt-class vessels can launch Kalibr missiles. There are presumably fewer than 10 of these ships in active service, and at 67m long, it’s quite a boat.
How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.
https://x.com/i/status/2050893365957316790
Karakurt-class corvette - Wikipedia Karakurt-class corvette - Wikipedia
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Video clips from the scene of last night’s drone strike in Moscow.
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It’s great that the war is slowly arriving in Moscow again after a long time. High time for them over there to get a taste of their own medicine. One can only hope that Ukraine has stockpiled a maximum number of drones for Victory Day.
Other interesting things happened last week:
#1
Iltalehti has excelled in its reporting. Russian propaganda is being discussed and treated with the appropriate level of seriousness:
Confusion in Russia over Finnish military exercises
Now if Ilta-Sanomat would also take a leaf out of Iltalehti’s book and ditch those Finlandization-style clickbait-scaremongering headlines, the world would be a notch better place again.
#2
Shooting down drones with traditional anti-aircraft artillery is surprisingly difficult:
https://x.com/prestonstew_/status/2050905103360459114
#3
The average Russian still doesn’t care about genocide until it affects their own daily life:
https://x.com/i/status/2048799492653064197
#4
Trump calling Putler, and once again Ukraine has no cards and they are losing the game—or could it be Iran after all? 
‘They are defeated’: Trump appears to confuse Ukraine with Iran
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“Where is Moscow’s air defense, in Valdai?”
Someone asks in Russian in the video comments 
After all, Putin’s villa is located in Valdai, so it’s quite likely that’s exactly where Putte, scared shitless, has dragged a significant amount of anti-aircraft defenses.
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If this is to be believed, it seems that panic is close. The fact that they are showing pre-recorded situations is no surprise. They are hiding the old man, but when will the moment come when someone finally cracks?
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Here is an analysis of that leak. I’ll comment on a few interesting points.
A leaked European intelligence dossier just blew the doors off the Kremlin: Putin’s so paranoid he’s installed surveillance in his own staff’s homes, banned smartphones near him, gone full Howard Hughes in a Krasnodar bunker — and his old defence minister Sergei Shoigu is being named, in writing, as the most likely man to overthrow him.
Firstly. How often do you read about intelligence leaks in the press, unless it’s a breach of IT systems? Almost never, because intelligence organizations know how to keep their material secret. This leak was intentional. Why?
It forces Shoigu into a hard choice: His most important subordinate has already been arrested and is under trial/investigation, and Shoigu himself has been demoted. He could be the next victim of Putin’s paranoia. If he wasn’t thinking about a coup before this leak, he is thinking about it now precisely because he has been named in the material and because Putin might take him out just to be safe.
The dossier then drops this bombshell: the March 5 arrest of Shoigu’s former deputy and close associate, Ruslan Tsalikov (charged with embezzlement, money laundering, and bribery) is described as “a breach of the tacit protection agreements among elites, weakening Shoigu and increasing the likelihood that he himself could become the target of a judicial investigation.”
In Russian elite-speak, that translates to: They came for Shoigu’s guy. Shoigu is next. And Shoigu has the military connections to do something about it before they come for him.
Secondly: The material demonstrates Putin’s fear and paranoia, as he places all his closest staff members under 24/7 surveillance (note, not protection, but surveillance). Anyone in Putin’s inner circle could be the next target of a paranoid fall from a window.
Surveillance systems installed in the homes of close staffers. Not on them. In their homes. The man who built modern Russia on FSB paranoia is now bugging the apartments of his own cooks and bodyguards.
He doesn’t dare visit any military units. Since the beginning of the war, he hasn’t visited the front, but now he won’t even visit a garrison, no matter how far back in the rear. There are men there with weapons, who knows what could happen…
He has not visited a military facility once in 2026 so far — despite regular trips throughout 2025. His own troops haven’t seen him.
Thirdly: This is a message to Trump. Putin is not the hard-boiled, confident leader, but a man who fears for his life and hides in a bunker.
Send a message to the United States. Specifically, to the second Trump administration , which has been openly cozying up to Moscow, walking back support for Ukraine, and floating the idea that Putin is a stabilizing force the West should partner with. The leak is Europe saying: No, he isn’t. Here’s the dossier. He’s hiding in a bunker, he’s losing the elite, and you’re propping up a corpse.
In my view, this leak has three main purposes:
- Destabilize the Kremlin’s power structures internally by getting individuals to turn against each other.
- Demonstrate to the whole world that Russia is actually very unstable internally and is not winning the war.
- Show Trump that betting on Putin is putting money on the wrong horse.
Of course, if a side effect is that Shoigu or someone else attempts a coup, it’s a pure bonus regardless of the outcome. And whoever tries it will remember what happened to Prigozhin.
The last guy who tried this — Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Wagner — marched on Moscow in June 2023, got within 200 km of the city, was offered safe passage to Belarus, and then his plane mysteriously fell out of the sky two months later.
Shoigu watched all of that happen and presumably learned the lesson. The lesson is: if you’re going to do this, don’t half-ass it.
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Victory Day is what’s scary here. They’ll bring to Red Square… well… nothing… since there’s nothing left. Putin is supposed to appear as the leader of the people, but will he dare? Ukraine has shown its drone capabilities and Muscovites are afraid. Definitely. How much longer will the elite watch as everything collapses? How long until the entire state implodes? It’s going to be an intense May.
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Hmm, there isn’t a bet on Polymarket yet for “Putte-possu” (Piggy Putin) not making it home from Victory Day. Maybe I should start monitoring to see if one pops up …
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It would be amusing, of course, if there were actually no indications of an intent to stage a coup, and they were trying to achieve that first point on your list just by creating a perception of one. If Putin then killed someone and caused even greater chaos through that, it would be a major victory for Ukraine.
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I would recommend starting to spread various conspiracy theories on Telegram and aim to incite discord and suspicion among everyone in significant positions. Then we can see what kind of bulldog eventually crawls out from under the carpet.
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Well, this aged in less than 24 hours. According to the tweet, the next batch of drones is already on its way to Moscow. And for the first time in broad daylight! If this pace continues and the same thing happens tonight, the rest of the week will be very interesting. 
Right now, a large number of drones are heading towards Moscow, according to monitoring channels
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A screenshot from a livestream where the streamer went to film an apartment building damaged by a drone in Moscow. It’s quite a substantial notch, and it looked like welding work was already underway.
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Problems with debt in Russian regions.
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Send the indebted to the front lines, and the problem will likely be solved in true orc style.
By the way, Canada just announced a 200 million support package.
And according to Ukraine, orc losses are already at the level of 35k / month. It seems no amount of additional recruitment will help the numbers game, which is inevitable.
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Massive, but I suspect this drone war won’t be settled on the front lines, but rather in Moscow. Could Putin’s back be broken by the humiliation coming next Saturday?
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Reports on Ukrainian losses have, for one reason or another, caught my eye less frequently lately. As a few observations, the Noel Reports have been updated. Personnel losses are high, over 1,000 people per day. Another observation is that tanks are no longer being lost and apparently aren’t on the front lines. Artillery is clearly being lost at double the rate compared to about six months ago. MLRS and air defense also seem to be getting hit. It just raises thoughts that Russia has relied on artillery in its warfare. I wonder how long the equipment will last if they start losing nearly 100 units per day?
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Personally, I suspect the situation is simply that they don’t dare to bring them there. Based on streamers on the street, the equipment is present in Moscow at least a week in advance; they hold practice marches and the public can go see them, if not right up close, then at least from behind the police tape. Even if air defense in Moscow still functions somewhat, such a concentration of equipment is such an attractive target that if it were there, the Ukrainians would at least try to strike it. Now that the equipment isn’t there, one motive for using drones in Moscow is removed.
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