Euroopan turvallisuustilanne ja Venäjän aggressiot (Osa 4)

Karibu · December 4, 2025, 6:30pm

An article in Helsingin Sanomat (Hesarissa) that even gives a comforting picture of the mindset of European leaders at the moment. Trump’s United States has been tried to be kept involved in supporting Ukraine by crawling, groveling, praising, flattering, begging, licking, and even by stating facts. Nothing has worked.

In Europe, the necessity of supporting Ukraine is understood, but now it has truly begun to be understood that no actions will keep Trump in the fold.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in plain words about the treachery of the United States during a call between European leaders, reports the German newspaper Der Spiegel.

German Chancellor Merz, in turn, said in the call that Zelenskyy must be “extremely careful in the coming days.”

“They are playing games with both you and us,” Merz said.

“We must not leave Ukraine and Volodymyr alone with these guys,” Stubb said in the call, according to the document.

The latest absurdity from the Trump administration has not yet been published, but it really doesn’t matter what it says, because in the words of Darth Putin:

Europe’s possible paths to the future are becoming fewer. Until there are two paths ahead:

Throwing Ukraine under the bus and Europe’s instability under the Russian threat for generations to come.
Full support for Ukraine and Russia’s complete defeat in Ukraine.

Many say that these are not the only possibilities. There are many paths in between. Not with Russia. Putin has had a maximalist demand for Ukraine and Europe since the beginning of the war, and it has not changed. It will not change. It will remain. Only Russia’s complete defeat in Ukraine can possibly change this Russian fixation. Any other “outcome” is one where Russia continues the war against Ukraine and Europe. In Ukraine with weapons and killing, and in Europe with sabotage, bribery, intimidation, and the disintegration of societies from within.

According to Garry Kasparov, Europe is not mentally ready for this. It’s a risk. Leaders do understand, but we are a fragmented continent, in the middle of which Russia’s cancer has spread to the highest levels of government in Hungary and Slovakia, and in many other countries, it is just waiting for the next elections. AfD in Germany, National Front in France, Nigel Farage in Britain, etc.

Meanwhile, the United States does not understand why Europe no longer wants to buy weapons from them for its defense.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau on Wednesday slammed European NATO allies for prioritizing their own defense industry over American arms suppliers, according to three NATO diplomats.

A U.S. State Department official said: “Deputy Secretary Landau delivered two key messages. One is the is the need for Europe to turn its defense spending commitments into capabilities. The second is that protectionist and exclusionary policies that bully American companies out of the market undermines our collective defense.”

Landau is not wrong. It took Trump and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Europe before defense budgets started to rise. It is clear that the United States will get its share of these funds, as several existing weapon systems have been acquired from there and cannot be changed just like that.

However, it is clear that distance is being taken when it is not known whether any support from the United States will be available in a tight spot. It is better to do it domestically, like Ukraine. Otherwise, Trump will do to us what he wants to do to Ukraine.

The choice should not be difficult. Belgium is scared and therefore evades responsibility for handing over confiscated Russian assets to Ukraine. An agreement should be made to share the responsibility. Belgium should not be left alone to bear the responsibility just because Putin is frightening. Consensus by other means – Europe’s own loan or transfers of funds to Ukraine – also depends on Hungary, Slovakia, and other hesitant countries.

The time for easy decisions is over. It was over almost 4 years ago, but now it is only beginning to dawn more widely. Decisions will only get harder as we move forward if nothing is truly done to crush Russia. Here too, the old wisdom applies: When you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging.

https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1996325508439478576?s=20

Finally, a Christmas gift recommendation for all adults. Get this for each other.

Europe’s economic power is 10x compared to Russia. Not 2x or 3x, but tenfold. The only thing preventing us from resolving the situation for everyone’s benefit is ourselves. Not Trump, Not Putin, Not Xi. Ourselves. Let’s accept that and take responsibility and save Europe by saving Ukraine.

Opa · December 4, 2025, 6:43pm

Mika Aaltola’s good summary of what peace negotiations are ultimately about.

With transaction-money Trump, Russia finds it good to negotiate when it has deals to sell on its own behalf and on behalf of Ukraine, while gaining Ukrainian lands and a dismantled security architecture.

Russia and the United States speak of a “negotiating table” meaning different things - we should not strive for this messy table. For the United States, the negotiating table is a mechanism for transactional deals at the expense of rules. Russia’s aim is not peace, but escalation and dividing the West.

Trump is also at the table purely out of love for theatre. It is not primarily a tool for risk management and crisis stabilization. Washington is looking for ways to shift the war onto a path of greater economic gains for Ukraine, even through transactional deals with Russia. To be honest and direct, Trump is not seeking peace in the sense that we in Europe understand it. For Russia, on the other hand, the negotiating table is a weapon, not a tool for compromise. It is a continuation of the use of force: a place to coerce, dismantle, and stretch boundaries.

There are two reasons not to believe those who rush Europe to the negotiating table. I have often said that two monologues in the same room are not a dialogue. Now the situation is even narrower: Russia delivers long, harsh historical sermons to justify its right to spheres of influence. Trump finds them boring, but he is impatient for business opportunities. These he wants to promote to his MAGA movement. The United States is now impatient and eager for quick, transactional agreements to minimize its own costs and move the conflict aside, away from Ukraine. Neither Trump nor Putin wants peace.

This is not a negotiation; it is an asymmetrical encounter where Russia unfortunately controls the rhythm and sets the framework. Why Europe should not surrender to this table. First thing: The table is not about peace in Ukraine, but about dividing the West and severing transatlantic ties. Europe should not participate in this, but rather avoid giving its stamp to a confused paper.

Russia does not want to negotiate peace. It wants to renegotiate Europe’s security architecture. Also Finland’s position. It seeks to erode Western unity and find new avenues for escalation, certainly not compromises.

Russia uses a divide and conquer tactic, as it always has in history. The negotiating table is part of Moscow’s long tradition. Some recall the 80s and how the Soviet Union divided and tore Europe away from the United States over intermediate-range missiles. Russia’s own nuclear missiles were sold as peace missiles to a large part of Europeans. Russia entices to the table but says no until spheres of influence are possible, à la Molotov–Ribbentrop or Yalta.
Europe might be wanted to be tied in at some point if a strategic outcome cannot be hammered out with Trump. One should not get excited and rush into this role. Russia’s principle is always the same: intimidate, isolate, divide, and finally coerce.

At the same time, Russia does not want Europe involved now because it knows Europe knows better. Former Eastern European countries, such as Estonia and Lithuania, with Germany’s support, have reached key positions in the EU. The time of Russian occupation has made Putin’s goals clear. They have no illusions. The EU as a unified actor would prevent Russia’s divide and conquer tactic. Europe’s presence would force Russia to talk about peace, not spheres of influence.

https://x.com/MikaAaltola/status/1996629803458330911?t=eRBjvpF9T3RPq-GcV3zGfg&s=19

Ilcaccio · December 4, 2025, 7:17pm

Ullatuus! Trump allways chickens out!

Indeksitermiitti · December 4, 2025, 7:57pm

Macron has probably been the most vocal among European leaders this year in promoting the idea that Europeans should favor European arms manufacturers and specifically reduce the procurement of American weapons. Although France, as a major arms manufacturing country, has its own vested interest, it certainly has good arguments in this day and age. Dependence on Trump’s USA is a risk in many ways in this matter.

Islander · December 4, 2025, 8:45pm

Finland, Sweden, and Denmark will move under NATO’s JFC Norfolk tomorrow. Previously, the UK, Iceland, and Norway have already operated under Norfolk. For background: Norfolk is the largest US naval base, housing not only JFC Norfolk but also the US Atlantic Fleet Headquarters. An interesting decision that geopolitically changes the positioning of the entire Nordic region. https://shape.nato.int/news-releases/natos-allied-command-operations-to-update-provisional--regional-boundaries-?gsid=af07ec3d-f619-42f3-9704-da9dbad957b0

Niinpaljonturskaa · December 4, 2025, 8:54pm

An expected decision and quite a no-brainer when looking at the map and considering where the most significant Russian armed forces operations are located in our immediate vicinity from NATO’s perspective. In Finland, the alliance’s activities will likely be strongly directed towards Lapland.

Jukka7 · December 5, 2025, 8:33am

Is this why the anti-America rhetoric has reached new heights on this forum as well?
Finland’s role in this is quite clear: if Russia starts making trouble in the North Atlantic, their connection to Murmansk and thus to the Arctic Ocean will be cut off from Finland, while Sweden and Denmark close off access from the Baltic Sea to the Atlantic.

Opa · December 5, 2025, 9:48am

Anti-Americanism is a different thing from Trump’s pro-Russian / anti-Ukrainian dealings.

Of course, on a practical level, Trump generates anti-Americanism when trust in arms deliveries, defense arrangements, etc., weakens.

Or what do you mean?

Lord_Foobar · December 5, 2025, 10:42am

Politically, Europeans would have many reasons to favor “themselves,” but we have been so intertwined with the Americans that they have been a unified option – we take the best option available.

When the United States becomes a selfish bully that primarily communicates when – and in a way that benefits them, and which is moreover unreliable and difficult to predict, it naturally increases opposition towards them. The United States has consciously created strong antagonism between the EU and themselves. This antagonism removes the idea that we are one alliance, and it inevitably leads to them being viewed through a different lens. Suddenly, we are not sure if old agreements can be trusted. Nor can we trust that a service purchased from a U.S. company will be available after someone says something that angers Trump, etc.

How could this not generate a negative attitude towards the United States? How the effects will manifest depends on how many alternatives there are and how tied we are to things. At work, we have a lot of discussion on the topic, for example, as we are among the top 10 AWS customers in Europe. Changes take time, so this will not be visible externally for a long time yet. At the national level, it’s even more difficult.

OldSchool · December 5, 2025, 1:01pm

This National Security Strategy published by the USA states directly what has so far been communicated implicitly from the US.

TLDR; Europe’s values are too far from the USA.

Below is an excerpt from the document:
”The Ukraine War has had the perverse effect of increasing Europe’s, especially Germany’s, external dependencies. Today, German chemical companies are building some of the world’s largest processing plants in China, using Russian gas that they cannot obtain at home. The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war perched in unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition. A large European majority wants peace, yet that desire is not translated into policy, in large measure because of those governments’ subversion of democratic processes. This is strategically important to the United States precisely because European states cannot reform themselves if they are trapped in political crisis.”

Jekku · December 5, 2025, 1:27pm

A strong Europe stands in the way of Trump’s, Putin’s, and Xi’s wet dream, where the world is divided according to the ideas of these gentlemen. That’s why these gentlemen shout the same narrative, where Europe is bad, and these dictators are the path to salvation. The fewer countries there are to share this wet dream cake, the fatter these gentlemen can make themselves and their offspring.

Now we should just roll up our sleeves and show that strength indeed can be found here in Europe. It would now be time to sever dependency relationships. It’s baffling that we have all the keys to be our own masters, but for some reason, no one is ready to turn words into action.

Henkipatto · December 5, 2025, 1:32pm

The St. Petersburg troll factory of the 2010s once sounded like such a dystopian, nihilistic operation that it was initially hard to believe it was real. However, democratic countries’ elections, decision-making, and unity are constantly being attacked with greater force and more effective tools.

An article by EU vs Disinfo tells about new trends in the disinformation industry. Russia, China, etc., are hiring a kind of media mercenary firms to carry out influence and distortion in target countries. This way, they can easily deny everything and just enjoy the results.

Before, a proper troll operation really required a large building, for example, in St. Petersburg, where individual people churned out garbage online. Artificial intelligence has made this work easier, and with its help, hundreds of fake profiles are created quickly:

AIinfo

This is asymmetric non-kinetic warfare because authoritarian dictatorships effectively censor and control their own societies, while at the same time, in our democracies, all disinformation pretty much gets through uncensored.

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/the-rise-of-the-disinformation-for-hire-industry/

Jukka7 · December 5, 2025, 1:40pm

And it doesn’t have to be disinformation; even with factual information, you can make the enemy’s ranks waver when it’s repeatedly spread to a wide audience. On discussion forums and social media, it’s even very easy: just harness a huge number of pseudonyms to spread the same message, and it starts to look like the opinion of the majority.

u.g.h · December 5, 2025, 1:51pm

Sweden’s government is phasing out aid to Bolivia, Liberia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Mozambique.

At the same time, embassies in Bolivia, Liberia, and Zimbabwe will be closed.

The aid has not been as beneficial as needed in these countries, said Minister for International Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade Benjamin Dousa at a press conference on Friday, according to Dagens Nyheter.

Ukraine is Sweden’s foremost foreign and development policy priority. Next year, aid to Ukraine will constitute almost 20 percent of Sweden’s total aid, and the money must come from somewhere for the budget to balance, Dousa tells news agency TT.

Dousa says that Ukraine faces many challenges and that, for example, winter will be difficult for the people.

He describes the change in aid as the “largest ever in Sweden’s history.”

According to aid organizations, support for Ukraine will now be greater than all aid to Africa combined.

MyrtsiZzz · December 5, 2025, 3:05pm

America is different from the MAGA/TRUMP nonsense that each of us has had to endure if we follow the media. Surely many who have visited the US or otherwise dealt with Americans have a different perception of Americans.

Arms deliveries or any deliveries from the US are subject to their legislation, which practically prioritizes US companies in receiving goods before others. In this light, it is certainly not certain that Europe will get the goods it wants in a crisis situation, e.g., if the USA vs. China conflict escalates. The same, however, applies to EU deliveries from China. They will ruthlessly halt deliveries of critical parts if they deem it necessary. Improving EU self-sufficiency is paramount, and this cannot be achieved unless larger systems are procured from European suppliers. The long-term challenges are then on the component side.

Lentava_Puliukko · December 5, 2025, 7:08pm

The President of the Republic has now officially begun preparing Finns for an “unfair peace”.

I have received several bans from this forum because I have not shared the thread’s optimism regarding the outcome of the war and criticized Europe’s actions as insufficient. By this, I mainly refer to the fact that we have not sent troops, and none of us have voluntarily gone to Ukraine.

I would urge many to self-reflect on how propaganda affects us and what kind of company we have found ourselves in.

I don’t believe that we have learned anything at all from the last few years.

Hawkmountdiver · December 5, 2025, 8:08pm

I partly understand this frustration. What frustrates me is that Russia’s weaknesses are not understood. On the contrary, it is believed that Russia is somehow inherently stable, even though it is clear to those familiar with Russian history that rebellions and revolutions can come suddenly and without warning. In itself, the war in Ukraine has only one outcome that can be acceptable to us, and that is the economic, social, and military collapse of Russia in its current form.

I cannot directly comment on the chain’s optimism or pessimism. But I will say that it is important to follow the facts themselves as accurately as possible, and regarding the Russian economy, I don’t know if all Western experts are up to date. I listen to Russian opposition economists for the reason that they are much better informed about the facts than their Western counterparts on average. There are exceptions on both sides, of course, but mostly I consider Western talking heads to be people who repeat other talking heads, and many of whom ultimately do not follow the Russian economy and society with sufficient accuracy or in an otherwise meaningful way.

As one example, Russian opposition economists have often mentioned in their posts the problems caused by a strong ruble. Now that export revenues from oil and the direct and indirect revenues to the state from it are collapsing, Russia’s policy of a strong ruble is becoming even more prominent. Vyacheslav Shiryaev (Vjatseslav Shirjajev) has addressed this problem, which Russia, and especially the Russian central bank, must face and solve sooner or later. There is only one solution, and that is, of course, a sharp devaluation; there is no other way. He also discusses a completely different problem that, unfortunately, all analysts following Russia will face. Information will be increasingly withheld in the future, and for this reason, following the economy will unfortunately become more difficult.

The cost of avoiding devaluation increases week by week and may soon lead to strong currency regulation, rapid indebtedness of state and regional economies and businesses, which in turn will quickly paralyze the economy. Interesting months lie ahead.

Much is said about the Russian people being passive and not rising to the barricades. However, many revolutions are not made by the people; the people may later come to support them. Russia is currently a pressure cooker boiling hard; I would follow, for example, whether any of the Z-bloggers will start a rebellion in the style of Prigozhin (Prigoshin). The collapse of the economy would be felt one way or another also at the front, and it could act as a catalyst for the next march towards Moscow.

Below is an interview with Vyacheslav Shiryaev (Vjatsheslav Shirjajev), which once again thoroughly examines the current state of the economy, with English subtitles available. Things are now moving fast in Russia, and solutions are urgent. The strong ruble is discussed right at the beginning, starting from the fourth minute.

Karibu · December 5, 2025, 8:12pm

In recent days and weeks, there has been much news about an agreement between the United States (read Trump) and Russia, in which Ukraine would be divided, and which has been widely discussed in this thread, including by myself. I will not repeat those points here, but I will bring another perspective to the current situation: Russia’s socioeconomic situation and actions.

Sir John Glubbs (b. 1898, d. 1986) was a British general and scholar who lived through the years of the British Empire’s greatness and decline. He served in World War I and World War II in various parts of the world. Based on his experiences and the lifecycles of previous empires, he wrote the book Fate of Empires, published in 1976 (the link leads directly to the book in PDF format from the University of North Carolina’s website), which has since been read in universities around the world.

The book is only 24 pages long and is definitely worth reading, but I will highlight its central point below. At the end of the book, it mentions the seven stages of an empire, which inevitably repeat. Based on this, Glubb’s model has been created.

So far, this model has repeated itself inevitably, although the durations of empires have varied. The Roman Empire lasted a total of up to 1500 years, and from its peak of greatness to total disintegration took approximately 400 years. The British Empire began to disintegrate after World War I and met its end during World War II. The Soviet Union collapsed in less than a decade, from the mid-80s to 1991.

Russia is, in a way, the heir of the Soviet Union and, based on several analyses, the last embodiment of a dying empire, whose foundation has always been Russia, whose forms of government have changed from Tsar to Politburo and to the current president, who is effectively a Tsar. It is more accurate to say that the Soviet Union was a culmination of Russia’s history of greatness, which began in the 16th century, and which partially disintegrated in 1991, leaving behind those parts of the empire that the central government was able to retain.

Russia’s current ruler is a child of this empire’s era of greatness, whose life’s mission is to restore the Empire to its former glory, and who is ultimately the reason for the current war in Ukraine. Although massive resources accumulated during the empire’s greatness have been at his disposal, Putin has not been able to crush a nation that is less than a third of Russia’s size. Why?

Let’s return to Glubb’s 7-stage model. At what stage is Russia today? Let’s examine the last three stages.

Stage 5 was undoubtedly in the 50s and 60s, when Soviet science – especially natural sciences – developed tremendously. The secular state dedicated all its capabilities to mathematics and physics, bringing much new knowledge to the world, culminating in the first human in space, Yuri Gagarin. At the same time, the state’s post-World War II industrialization was at its peak. Stage 5 was being lived.

In the 60s and 70s, the Soviet Union stagnated as the central power isolated itself from the people and internal development declined. Communism no longer offered ordinary people the strength to toil for the common good, as they themselves did not receive it unless they were part of the party elite. Society declined internally. Now Stage 6 was being lived.

In the late 70s and 80s, the costs of the arms race and falling oil prices drove the state’s economy into a crisis, one consequence of which was the war in Afghanistan. When things are going badly at home, start a war. A cynical society did not buy into the state’s propaganda about defending and spreading communism, when things had been going badly at home for generations. The same old shit in a new package, to put it vulgarly.

To everyone’s surprise, the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, but upon deeper assessment, it was actually the beginning of Stage 7. The core, meaning Russia and its central leadership, survived, albeit slightly changed in form. Fast forward 30 years. Russia’s central leadership has stabilized its power, and the monarch in power has not forgotten the imagined glory of the past. The core has survived, it has wavered, but key aspects have been maintained. Now the state is at a crossroads:

Restore the old empire
Die as irrelevant

Putin understands this, and his great gamble was that Ukraine would surrender and provide steroid treatment for the birth of USSR 2.0. The gamble did not work, and Russia is now two orders of magnitude worse off than before the war. What signs of Stage 7 do we see in Russia today?

all categories receive a mark.

Russia has squandered the arms stockpiles inherited from the Soviet Union.
The economy is in shambles with a 21% interest rate, the budget is catastrophically in deficit, and the state runs solely on a war economy (and Chinese support).
Propaganda about external threats runs 24/7 in the media. NATO and the West play a leading role.
Domestically, oligarchs hoard gold while the central bank sells it for rubles. Who makes the better deal?
Internal control and repression have risen to the highest level since Stalin’s time.

The video below examines the gold purchases and sales by the Russian state and oligarchs. Despite being an unsexy topic – except on Inden’s forum – it is a very good compilation of what is currently happening inside Russia. I have obtained similar results from other sources, so I believe that at least the central point in the video is correct. Watch and judge for yourselves.

In short: Russia’s central government is selling key gold reserves when it is in a forced situation. They are being sold massively because the next stage is uncontrolled money printing. The video also explains that the amount of rubles issued by Russia has already doubled since the beginning of the war. Inflation is therefore already raging. What will it be like when state funds run out and there is no gold to sell, and the war’s demand for money is insatiable? The Zimbabwe path.

The video is 16 minutes long.

Putin has only been able to continue the war until now with China’s support, and over the past year, the US must be made to act on Russia’s behalf. There is no other option. Russia is in a forced situation where it must soon get a break, or internal collapse could come quite quickly. That is why Russia is using every lever, with Trump’s help, against Europe and Ukraine. Russia is ALL IN on Europe and Ukraine bending now. For Putin, this is an easy decision. He has only one way out.

Indeed. Whatever leverage there is on Trump, it has now been cranked to the max. Bloomberg.

The US is dialing up pressure on the European Union. Diplomats told us the White House lobbied several EU countries to block plans to use frozen Russian assets to back a massive loan to Ukraine.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-12-05/trump-dials-up-pressure-to-keep-eu-from-tapping-kremlin-funds

Jürgen Nauditt.

Trump’s betrayal is getting worse and worse.

According to a Bloomberg report from December 5, 2025, the US government has urged several EU countries to block EU plans to use frozen Russian central bank assets (approximately €210 billion in Europe) as collateral for a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. This loan is intended to provide Ukraine with up to €90 billion over 2026-2027 to help close funding gaps and maintain its defenses.

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1996895121682395292?s=20

Russia is not invincible. It is an empire in its final stage of collapse. It only stays afloat with external support, which comes from China and a Trump administration. Europe now has the opportunity either to rise to the leadership required by the situation and determine the future of its own continent, or to let Trump and Putin do it for us.Do we have leaders who are up to their tasks? I don’t know, but we have all the trump cards if we want to use them. Or we can surrender our fate to Putin and Trump.

Is our and Ukraine’s fate in a dice roll, at the mercy of our leaders’ fears, instincts, upcoming elections, and social media?

No, not if we tell our leaders what we think. Let’s help them maintain integrity and keep their eye on the ball with our children and future in mind.

Divinesia · December 6, 2025, 9:05am

The Ukrainian 414th UAS brigade occasionally publishes drone footage of Russian soldiers’ last moments. The reason I share this is not to gloat over Russian deaths (as such, the videos show nothing more than the final expression), but to illustrate why it is claimed that the majority of battlefield losses nowadays come from drones.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1pf86kr/ukrainian_414th_uas_brigade_magyars_birds_took/

When watching these videos and noticing that drones have night and thermal cameras and such, there’s no way to protect oneself from them other than being underground or inside a secure building. Drones seem to be able to get into bunkers even through quite small openings, for example. There didn’t seem to be an example in this particular video, but plenty in other similar ones.

If one didn’t want to be a soldier in the 1940s, even less so in 2025. Besides being blown to pieces, someone is watching and recording the last moments on video. The next step is to equip drones with AI on land, sea, and air, and humans will have no business on the battlefield.

War will then increasingly become a war of scale on behalf of industry, and presumably many technologies will become obsolete or otherwise lose their significance. Indeed, even tanks are largely kept protected in the background, and they are not rushed into battle epically in a blitzkrieg style as decades ago.

//Sidenote:

There has been a lot of false clamor in the media lately about how Russia is inevitably prevailing. However, Ukraine reports that Russian losses are horrific and the advance is slow, and Ukraine doesn’t seem to be collapsing any more than in 2022, 2023, 2024, or earlier this year. Could it be that both Russia (and the USA) are tweaking their algorithms and bots to push Ukraine into a bad peace and be plundered by Trump’s and Putin’s inner circle? In addition, a few useful agents/idiots have emerged from their hiding places in Europe, such as the Belgian Prime Minister who directly claimed that Russia will win the war.

Europe still has a long way to go to stand on its own feet and clean up its own house. Plenty of Danish pastries are consumed and many vague, fine words are uttered, but the hamster wheel is still strong. Even what Stubb tries to encourage and guide the people as best he can, Orpo will soon shoot down with his realism. And the support of Russia and the USA for all European right-wing agitators doesn’t really help the matter.

On top of that, it’s practically a given that China is also heavily assisting Russia’s drone industry, but no one wants to talk about it. India is also happy to help Russia’s economy to get cheap oil and military supplies. Europe shouldn’t be helping Ukraine with half-measures, but that’s what’s being done anyway.

And if Ukraine falls and Russia gets away with it without major consequences, Russia will continue with its next projects, China will dare to attack Taiwan, and at worst, Trump might even get excited about doing something really stupid with his army.

Oh Europe, what are you failing to do even in your greatest hour of need.

Hawkmountdiver · December 6, 2025, 9:24am

I practically agree with this, and so do Russian opposition economists. It is very interesting how leading Western politicians are inclined to imagine that this war would end with some kind of “peace agreement.” This will not happen; this war will most likely end in Russia’s defeat and the collapse of the Russian empire. I think the reason for this Western ignorance is a lack of interest in Russia, its culture, and history, and even if there were such interest, Russia’s cultural imperialism, brutality, and Russian strategic thinking (read: paranoia) are often misunderstood or completely missed.

Do we have leaders who are up to their tasks? I don’t know, but we have all the trump cards if we want to use them. Or we can surrender our fate to Putin and Trump.

Our leaders are sometimes quite clueless, and unfortunately, this is also reflected in the statements of our president, who has otherwise handled his duties well (unless he is playing five-dimensional chess that we don’t understand). On the contrary, we must press the gas to the floor so that Russia collapses into pieces in the same way the Soviet Union once disintegrated.

The linked interview with Igor Lipsits below is a repeat of an earlier one. However, the advantage of Russian opposition economists over their Western counterparts is that they have a much better grasp of facts and history than their Western colleagues. If you find the idea of a Siberian Republic emerging in the near future unbelievable, it might not be after watching this Lipsits video. His Siberian colleagues told him about the idea 20 years ago. Why does Siberia need Moscow? Trade is conducted with the Chinese, Koreans, and Japanese. The steering wheel in cars is on the right. Moscow is somewhere far behind the Urals and is not a commercially interesting partner. All of this is absolutely true.

Video below, Siberia is discussed at the 20-minute mark. Subtitles are available in English.