Hardly. Trump is very consistent in these Russia-related sanctions, etc. He fundamentally does not support them.
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Sanctions are actually only intended for China and India; they keep the war machine running.
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Itâs still a strange message to the world that Russia is not directly sanctioned. Publicly, Trump has also continued (do you still remember late winter?) to mainly criticize Zelensky as a dictator. And his supporters demanded elections mainly in Ukraine.
And they donât even sell weapons to Ukraine.
Indeed, regarding Trumpâs America, the opinion has already been formed as to which side their heart beats for, if one has only kept their eyes open. Random words wonât change that; actions are needed first and foremost.
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Is there anything so bad that a Russian soldier wouldnât do it? Is there anything so bad that would make the West act properly against Russia?
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A legislative package that would get Russiaâs frozen assets to Ukraine. Unfortunately, this too is again in Trumpâs hands.
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The threshold for action has risen very high in 11 years. Individual human plights no longer stir any emotions in the West. Not even the hundreds of victims of flight MH14 or thousands of Ukrainians are enough. What is required is direct, unambiguous military impact on civilians in the European Union area.
I no longer believe in anything else, after so much dithering. Only when the first blow has been taken will people truly dare to act.
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Indeed, itâs not easy being Russian right now. Our mainstream media reports how Ukraine is being hammered by drones day after day with larger air armadas, but when you read the discussion forums of Russian ânymsâ (anonymous users), the defeatist mood has never been this palpable:
Just a couple of years ago, there was a lot of bravado about how Ukraine would collapse any moment and Russia would show the âWesternersâ their place, rising to a new great prosperity. Now, that bravado seems to have been replaced by immense war fatigue and despair that nothing will improve in Russia, but rather a long-lasting misery awaits.
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Based on Russian media, Putin has clear goals for the war: to fully conquer the territories annexed by Putinâs Russia, prevent Ukraineâs NATO membership, form buffer zones, etc., etc.
But the media doesnât say what happens when these goals are achieved. No one believes that Russia will return to its position on the international stage where it was before the war. And Ukraine will not stop its attacks, and no one will lift sanctions, and Russia cannot stop its armament, and nothing else will get better no matter where the border between Russia and Ukraine is drawn. Itâs no wonder that despair is increasing.
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A slightly different perspective on current âwarsâ.
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What the hell has that girl been thinking now?
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And a new new MAGA idea to avoid real peace negotiations and especially cumulative sanctions:
- According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov presented him with a ânew ideaâ that might lead to a solution to the war in Ukraine. He did not disclose what the idea was, but said he would take it to President Donald Trump.
â To be honest, Putin throws a lot of crap at us. Heâs always really nice, but thatâs meaningless, Trump said on TuesdayâŠ
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In addition, Trump announced he would write a âsignificant statementâ about Russia next Monday.
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The nature of warfare has indeed changed, but the author of this hasnât delved much into military history. Thereâs no need to glorify the past. Throughout human history, wars have involved looting, raping, killing civilians, and massacring peoples.
Nowadays, at least the Geneva Conventions exist. Of course, these have been poorly adhered to, so itâs quite a âfailed experimentâ.
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Hopefully, the talk doesnât remain just talkâŠ
sanctions and weapons are already being promised
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A lot of talk from that direction has now been heard almost as frequently as from the Kremlin. And itâs no wonder if theyâve managed to infiltrate the local organization as well as the latest news suggests. Only actions matter now.
It was previously estimated that the TACO-man would have to humble himself and accept new sanctions against his favorite dictator at the point when thereâs a threat that otherwise Congress would simply walk all over him. And that, if anything, would look bad. So now heâs blustering in every direction to make it seem like heâs still in charge.
Will something finally happen other than just mere hand-waving.. 
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While much focus is on Trumpâs and the USâs fickle behavior, Europe has been constantly, and quite rightly, criticized for its slowness, inaction, and cowardice. That said, much more might be happening behind the scenes than one might infer from speeches flattering Trump.
France is genuinely extending its nuclear umbrella to others, and this would not be happening if they considered the United States a reliable ally.
Financial Times reported that France and the UK have agreed to begin coordinating on nuclear responses. This move is a tectonic shift in French nuclear policy, which has been strictly sovereign and national to the point that France has hitherto refused any and all multilateral coordination mechanisms on nuclear deterrence.
And not just France, but also their ancient arch-enemy, the British. Together, they intend to form a Nuclear Coordination Group.
Now, France has agreed to set up a nuclear supervision group co-chaired by the ĂlysĂ©e and the UK Cabinet Office, which will be responsible for âcoordinating the growing co-operation in the areas of policy, capabilities, and operationsâ (from the FT article). This is revolutionary on the scale that hell might just as well freeze next.
The reasons for establishing such a coordination group are not far-fetched. What France and Britain are doing first, Asian states may follow. The proximity of China, North Korea, and Russia, and the United States proving to be a rather difficult and selfish ally, gives Japan and South Korea, among others, a very strong motivation to create something similar. They have the economic and technological capability to develop their own nuclear weapons quite quickly if they so choose. They might very well want to.
The goal is therefore rather to make the best of what the two European powers have and lift the threshold for adversaries (uh, Russia) potentially contemplating unwise moves. Europe is in that sense better off than Asian US allies, whom the US has hitherto managed to talk out of developing own nuclear weapons. But that might soon change, as South Korea and Japan are both capable potential proliferators - and now Trump has given them a push.
Besides nuclear coordination, the Coalition of the Willing is at the heart of the matter. The plans are excellent.
This Coalition of the Willing (in Finnish, Halukkaiden liittouma) has already progressed far at the administrative level. This could perhaps be briefly described as follows: NATO without the United States, Hungary, Slovakia, and other entities that prevent things from being done as they should have been done already in 2014.
However, what is more remarkable than the reassurance force is the institutionalisation of the coalition of the willing. It was created to bypass NATO and since the US has withdrawn from the leadership, it has also been a way for Europeans to coordinate with each other and Indo-Pacific partners - without the US. It already has an established meeting system for the highest political and military leaders: the heads of state, and the chiefs of defence.
I welcome the Coalition of the Willing to Europe. Hopefully, Finland will fully participate in creating Europeâs own security!
The most advantageous feature is that Ukraine is already in (obviously), while Hungary is out.
One must, of course, be cautious. Trump would naturally want veto power over all actions of the European security community. Such power should not be given to anyone, especially not to those who are not fully committed to defending the security of Ukraine and Europe.
The US was on its way out too, but apparently got second thoughts and is now trying to slime its way back in: US representatives joined the meeting of the coalition for the first time, including Special Presidential Envoy, General Keith Kellogg, Senator Lindsey Graham and Senator Richard Blumenthal.
https://minnalander.substack.com/p/contours-of-european-strategic-autonomy
Letâs continue with this model. Where thereâs a will, thereâs a way. 
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Some might accuse me of laziness (including my boss), but July is quite slow. So I decided to do something fun. I calculated Russian losses in tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (IFV), and armored personnel carriers (APC) for the periods 11.6.2024â11.7.2024 and 11.6.2025â11.7.2025.
Russian losses in tanks, IFVs, and APCs:
11.6.2024â11.7.2024: 151
11.6.2025â11.7.2025: 30
If there was nothing wrong with the data, then this says quite a lot about how weak the Russian armed forces have become. Or perhaps the drivers and tank commanders have become so skilled that they simply cannot be destroyed anymore!
It would be interesting to read some professional data on the subject, if anyone has a source for it.
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That doesnât directly speak to the weakness or strength of the Russian armed forces; rather, it particularly speaks to a change in the battlefield. Drones have significantly weakened the importance of armored equipment, and their kill zone has expanded considerably, which inevitably changes the ways different equipment is used. When armored equipment is very likely destroyed before combat contact, then using cars, ATVs, and motorcycles serves the same purpose more cheaply when moving to the front line. For advancing on the battlefield, however, the Russians now seem to primarily use unmotorized infantry in small groups.
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War has become more of a cost-efficiency war, and expensive tanks donât serve that purpose. Drones and human lives are cheap for Russia, and thatâs what the whole thing seems to be based on now for 2025.
Of course, Russia has also lost tanks, that cannot be underestimated*.
Missiles destroy stationary ground targets better, but otherwise, the role of fighter jets is also diminishing, at least compared to before.
Why use, hyperbolically, 10 billion for a few planes (or a few dozen tanks) when for the same money you can get a hell of a lot of drones.
And drone technology is still largely âkamikazeâ style. As technology advances, AI and autonomy grow, and even a single drone can fire multiple rounds and perhaps even return, their role will only increase further. Of course, the technology to counter them will also advance and will create its own important branch.
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