The euro amount of redemptions for the eQ Social Infrastructure Properties Fund, payable by April 30, can likely be estimated with the help of Sijoitustutkimus’ April 2025 fund report, to be published in May.
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Advium had a very quiet quarter, which dragged down operating profit:
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@Sauli_Vilen -uncle is now very, very angry or at least disappointed 
eQ Q1’25 -pikakommentti: Alkuvuosi meni odotuksiin nähden penkin alle - Inderes
Apparently, the full earnings package hadn’t been shared yet: eQ Oyj:n osavuosikatsaus Q1 2025 – eQ:n liikevoitto 5,8 miljoonaa euroa - Inderes
January-March 2025 in brief
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The Group’s net sales during the review period were 14.0 million euros (16.5 MEUR 1.1.-31.3.2024). The Group’s net commission income was 14.5 million euros (16.0 MEUR).
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The Group’s operating profit decreased by 34 percent and was 5.8 million euros (8.8 MEUR).
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The Group’s profit was 4.6 million euros (7.0 MEUR).
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The Group’s earnings per share were 0.11 euros (0.17 euros).
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The Asset Management segment’s net sales decreased by 5 percent to 14.4 million euros (15.1 MEUR) and operating profit by 11 percent to 7.9 million euros (8.9 MEUR). The Asset Management segment’s management fees decreased by 4 percent to 13.5 million euros (14.0 MEUR) and performance-based fees decreased by 19 percent to 1.1 million euros (1.4 MEUR). Assets under management grew during the review period to 13.6 billion euros (13.4 billion EUR 31.12.2024).
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The Corporate Finance segment’s net sales were 0.1 million euros (0.8 MEUR) and operating profit was -0.8 million euros (0.1 MEUR).
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The Investments segment’s operating profit was -0.6 million euros (0.2 MEUR). The operating profit was negatively impacted by value changes recorded from housing funds.
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The Group’s net cash flow from equity and real estate fund investment activities was -0.8 million euros (0.1 MEUR).
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By looking at those Community Properties’ quarterly reports, one can notice that the debt amount has increased by about 45 million in the quarter, meaning the payment seems to be mostly financed by debt. The size of the payment, based on the cash calculable from the reports, is about 80-90 million, which would leave 20-30 million still short. These are more estimates, and the truth will be seen in the next quarterly report, but that original 100 million is certainly very close to the truth, and of course, it’s not known if there will be more of these.
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Sauli, that diligent proletarian, has managed to produce a fresh eQ company report this evening.
eQ’s year started sluggishly, and the outlook remains challenging, especially due to problems in the real estate market. In light of our lowered forecasts, it is difficult to see upside potential in the stock from current levels without a clearer earnings growth outlook. We revise our target price for eQ to EUR 11.0 (previously EUR 13.0) and lower our recommendation to Reduce (previously Add) as our earlier view proved too optimistic.
Quoted from the report:
There were no surprises in the Q1 report’s outlook itself. The company still expects the worst in the real estate market to be over, but recovery to be slow. In addition, the company expects the PE market to continue its good momentum. Less surprisingly, the company also highlighted the increased market uncertainty caused by the trade war. No further information on the new strategy was provided at this stage either.
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Ilmarinen’s CEO becomes eQ’s new CEO.
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Strong Commitment from New CEO
“eQ’s three largest owners have decided to sell a total of one million (1,000,000) eQ shares to Jouko Pölönen. Technically, the shares will be sold to Pölönen’s investment company. The amount corresponds to approximately 2.4 percent of eQ’s total share capital, and with this share transaction, Pölönen will become one of eQ’s ten largest shareholders. The share transactions will be completed during May.”
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Jouko Pölönen, who drove Ilmarinen’s return growth, moves to a €13 billion asset manager – Now explains why
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If nothing else, Pölönen at least considers eQ’s share price cheap right now; otherwise, he would hardly dare to go all-in with €10m, relative to his own wealth.
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If @Sauli_Vilen is going to a press conference, here Karo and Mikko would have an excellent question to ask (copied from X):
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I can ask! My own guess is that the deal will be made close to the current share price and financed, as needed, with a loan from the main owners (sellers). I don’t believe eQ’s balance sheet will be used for this, as it was with Koskimies’ share purchases back then. No matter how you slice it, Pölönen is taking a big financial risk and putting serious skin in the game, which is, of course, great!
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You can watch the event here:
There’s still time to ask your own questions.
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I warmly recommend everyone interested in eQ to watch that broadcast (link above). Janne again very clearly explained eQ’s situation and openly answered all possible questions. Many other companies could learn from this 
Regarding that arrangement, they stated that the transaction will be done on market terms (flagging notifications will surely come in the coming weeks) and financing will be handled according to Pölönen “with own capital and debt”. eQ is not involved in the arrangement in any way. Even if the transaction were made at a small discount vs. the share price and the main owners would provide loans on favorable terms (there is no information about this), this does not change the fact that Pölönen is investing a huge sum of his own money in his new employer.
At least I personally gained significant perspectives from that information regarding the company’s strategy update. I will return to these observations when I have more time, once I’ve had a moment to reflect on this myself 
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I also managed to snag an interview in connection with the info 
Topics included the CEO search process, Pölönen’s reasons for investing +10 MEUR in eQ, and the status of eQ’s strategy process.
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Over Half a Million Euro Block Trade Made with EQ Shares
In the trade, 50,000 shares changed owners at a price of 11.77 euros per share.
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Jouko Pölönen is quite a valuable guy. After the appointment, eQ’s share price has risen by 22%, and thus its market value by almost 100 million. No pressure for Jouko 
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Yep, I also wondered how eQ became a hype stock overnight. Funny, because Larma himself said that a ship like this turns slowly, and Jouko hasn’t even started yet.
While looking into the matter, I also noticed that the Commercial Real Estate fund has not been able to pay out all returns, but has left 50% to wait until autumn. When examining the fund’s liquidity situation (the cash balance looks quite empty according to the quarterly report), the situation sounds very worrying.
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Could a rapid rise in the share price be due, among other things, to the fact that:
- The new CEO is practically putting all his own and borrowed money into play, over €10m
- While getting to know the company, he has formed a strong impression that the company is significantly undervalued relative to future fixed and performance-based fees (yields estimated solely from Private Equity are €160m over the next few years, so the €400m market cap it traded at was quite a joke).
- When a former Authorized Public Accountant (KHT) with decades of experience as a director in the financial sector goes all-in, it might be wise to follow suit. The guy is not some coin-flip risk-taker-poker player, but sees a strong, favorably skewed risk-reward ratio at these levels.
- Pölönen brings very broad recognition to the smaller investor base and clientele, which eQ has lacked until now (even though the company is known among institutions and professionals, the average saver-investor may not have even heard of the company at all – now there was even a story about this appointment on MTV3’s ten o’clock news).
- It’s not really a disadvantage for eQ that the man has been seasoned in the largest pension insurance company for 7 years – he knows all the major investors in Finland and internationally, whom one needs to know. With this, I refer not only to international firms potentially interested in eQ as an investment target, but also to other strategic moves.
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It went unnoticed last week amidst the earnings season rush, but the latest fund report reveals eQ’s Community Properties’ spring redemptions. The sum is -56 MEUR and well in line with our previous estimate (see the message I replied to with this message). So, in total, YKK had redemptions of ~75 MEUR in the December window, and the worst fears were avoided here. Surely, redemptions have still occurred in H2’24 and possibly also in the early part of the year. However, it can be said with reasonable certainty that the worst is now behind us, and the remaining redemptions are significantly smaller. Furthermore, with the current interest rate level and the fund’s gradually improving returns, there is a realistic prerequisite to get new sales pulling again, at least moderately. Overall, YKK has had redemptions of approximately 250 MEUR to date, which is about 15% of the highest equity amount. In addition, the fund’s value has decreased by approximately 300 MEUR, and the fund’s total equity has shrunk by a third from its peak 
YKK has been a clear pioneer in the market in paying out redemptions and realistically booking values, and it will be interesting to see if YKK’s equity contraction also serves as an indicator for the ultimate development of other players
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I’m wondering how reliable the information in Investment Research’s fund reports is?
For example, the net subscriptions for the eQ Yhteiskuntakiinteistö fund from the beginning of the year were:
- 03/25 +9.9 MEUR
- 04/25 -112.3 MEUR.
Based on the year-to-date data, the net subscriptions realized for the said fund in April would be -122.2 MEUR.
On the other hand, when comparing the fund capital of the said fund 03/25: 1122 MEUR vs. 04/25: 1066 MEUR, the net subscriptions realized in April would be -56 MEUR.
Seemingly, the information provided by Investment Research’s fund reports is, at least in this case, contradictory or even erroneous. Does, for example, @Sauli_Vilen have any insight or opinion on the matter?
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