Technological advancements in the energy sector and investment opportunities

Hydrogen infrastructure projects cost money right at the beginning, and there are no guaranteed prices or even an EU promise to participate in construction yet. Additionally, for example, in the pipeline planned from Spain to Europe, Germany will have a great need in 2035. So, will money perhaps start flowing in properly in ten years?

The hydrogen infrastructure built in Spain is an incredible achievement. There are no guarantees as to how the revenues will come from there; it also requires regulation. One must trust that there will be a lot of use for these, and money will indeed start coming from them. And as stated, Enagas is doing well with its existing gas infrastructure.

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Figures from Eurostat:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20250221-3?fbclid=IwY2xjawIleChleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHT32JvH9Z2ScGxR0A0wpcU9TxTDgaZFZ1rVse-NaHNumXX5Rk7OpCYt2Uw_aem_nU_vCH3CCjbLHHvJk_NaIQ

43% of the EU’s energy production comes from renewables.

sources-renewable-energy-electricity-consumption-2023
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TotalEnergies liikkuu vihreän vedyn rintamalla:

Germany’s biggest utility RWE will supply green hydrogen to France’s oil and gas supermajor TotalEnergies in a 15-year deal from 2030, in one of the largest such agreements globally.

RWE to supply around 30,000 metric tons of green hydrogen annually to TotalEnergies from 2030 to 2044, the German utility giant said on Wednesday. The green hydrogen from RWE will be used in TotalEnergies’ Leuna refinery in Germany to reduce the plant’s carbon emissions.

The offtake agreement for green hydrogen is the largest quantity of climate-neutral hydrogen ever contracted from an electrolyzer in Germany, RWE said.

The green hydrogen will be produced at RWE’s 300-megawatt (MW) electrolysis plant in Lingen, western Germany. The agreement makes Total’s refinery in Leuna an anchor customer for RWE’s electrolysis plant.

“The agreement is a signal for the German market because fuel suppliers such as refineries are encouraged to gradually reduce their greenhouse gas emissions over time,” RWE said.

The deal with RWE comes weeks after TotalEnergies and Air Liquide said that they plan to invest a combined more than $1.09 billion (1 billion euros) in two electrolyzer projects to produce green hydrogen in the Netherlands, as part of the French supermajor’s efforts to slash emissions from its refineries in northwest Europe.

Per the agreement, the companies will set up a 50/50 joint venture, which will build and operate a 250-MW electrolyzer near the Zeeland refinery.

In the other joint project, TotalEnergies has signed a tolling agreement for 130 MW to be dedicated to the production of 15,000 tons per year of green hydrogen at Air Liquide’s 200 MW ELYgator electrolyzer project in Maasvlakte, for the TotalEnergies platform in Antwerp.

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Oklo published its results today. The company develops small nuclear reactors and, in short, offers clean energy to businesses.

The company has signed significant energy agreements and expanded its business into radioisotope production. It has also secured substantial investments and is advancing the construction of its first power plant.

Oklo collaborates with major technology companies and is developing its reactor capacity to meet growing demand.

More about the results in the tweet. :slight_smile:

https://x.com/Investing_Table/status/1904269281509908656
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Ja Bosch:
https://fuelcellsworks.com/2025/03/26/electrolyzer/bosch-banks-on-billions-100mw-in-pre-orders-for-new-hydrogen-electrolysers-ahead-of-april-launch

Bosch has already secured 100MW in pre-orders for its Hybrion PEM electrolyser stacks, ahead of the official April launch, signaling strong demand for its hydrogen production components.
The company expects its hydrogen business to generate billions in revenue by 2030, pivoting toward PEM electrolysers while scaling back on fuel cell plans in the U.S. and dropping SOFC development due to weak policy support.

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Interesting project;

Energiequelle plans 500 MW Finnish hydrogen plant, final size according to market situation

https://cm.h2-view.com/t/t-l-gltgtk-yuftlhjuu-o/

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Egypt and France Reach Billion-Euro Deal on Hydrogen Plant

Egypt and France have signed a seven-billion-euro agreement on a green hydrogen production plant.

The agreement covers the development, financing, and operation of the production plant, according to the Egyptian Ministry of Transport.

The agreement was signed during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Egypt.

Source: Reuters

Due to the rapprochement between the US and Russia, there has been speculation about Germany returning to using Russian gas, by utilizing the repairable Nord Stream pipelines.

Even if Germany does not widely adopt hydrogen as an energy solution, the rest of Europe sees more future in utilizing hydrogen.

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Yes, Germany is investing in hydrogen.

https://www.h2-view.com/story/next-german-govt-embraces-all-hydrogen-colours/2124469.article/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20Daily%20Hydrogen%20Highlights&utm_content=Daily%20Daily%20Hydrogen%20Highlights+CID_7b8ec5067a2d6f14556d32c44999bfbc&utm_source=Campaign%20Monitor&utm_term=Next%20German%20Govt%20embraces%20all%20hydrogen%20colours

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Interesting thoughts and perspectives on the future of the hydrogen economy.

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Below is an article stating that BP has become a potential takeover target after launching a strategic shift, re-emphasizing oil and gas operations over renewables.

Shell, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron have been mentioned as possible buyers, but a merger is overshadowed by concerns such as antitrust issues and general market uncertainty.

"Key Points

  • Oil giant BP, which holds its annual general meeting on Thursday, has recently sought to resolve something of an identity crisis by launching a fundamental reset.
  • Britain’s Shell and U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron have been touted as possible suitors.
  • “I wouldn’t take anything off on the table. You know, oil and gas is facing an existential crisis,” Allen Good, director of equity research at Morningstar, told CNBC by telephone."

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/15/oil-bp-is-seen-as-a-takeover-target-reigniting-shell-merger-rumors.html

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I’m dropping the whole load at once.

In China, Q1 electrolyser orders already outpace the entire year 2024. It’s expected that the pace will only accelerate in the coming quarters. Here we go.

https://www.h2-view.com/story/netherlands-commits-e2-1bn-to-green-hydrogen-production-and-introduces-4-industry-mandate/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=rss

The Netherlands invests 2.1 billion in green hydrogen.

https://www.h2-view.com/story/gascade-begins-filling-german-hydrogen-pipeline-project-flow/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=rss

Pipeline.
https://www.h2-view.com/story/spain-drops-bp-iberdrola-and-edp-from-e1-2bn-hydrogen-valley-programme/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=rss

In Spain, 1.2 billion, some projects cut.
In Britain, big dreams. Big players behind it.

Bosch already has quite a few pre-orders.

https://www.h2-view.com/story/bosch-logs-100mw-of-electrolyser-stack-pre-orders-ahead-of-april-launch/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=linkedin&utm_campaign=rss

Then ITM Power news.

Results quite good!
https://renewablesnow.com/news/itm-power-raises-fy-202425-revenue-guidance-1274177/

Electrolyser deals made quite impressively:

https://www.h2-view.com/story/itm-power-secures-300mw-electrolyser-deal-for-apac-green-hydrogen-plant/

https://x.com/ITMPowerPLC/status/1919638408906829837?t=IrDsjhXLKuRjgddxmSlepw&s=19

The lowest to Germany.

https://x.com/ITMPowerPLC/status/1920723180836032998?t=KUhFwJDdW7nQfLBLu0RxCw&s=19

This one for a concrete company.

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“According to Rystad Energy’s estimate, the size of battery storage will increase tenfold by 2030. McKinsey’s forecast predicts a ‘more moderate’ fivefold increase in battery storage from 2023 to 2030. Bloomberg NEF, on the other hand, estimates that the amount of battery storage could even increase fifteenfold by the end of the decade.”

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The world’s largest battery manufacturer CATL listed today on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (it was previously listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in mainland China).

The company’s global market share in both electric vehicle and energy storage battery markets is around ~38%.

In connection with this HK listing, the company raised $4.6 billion in new capital, and the company’s market capitalization at today’s share price is approximately $338 billion.

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Here’s some real reflection on Europe’s role. Always late and afraid of taking risks;

https://cm.h2-view.com/t/t-l-gztidk-yuftlhjuu-k/

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This seminar focusing on renewable energy is quite interesting. There seems to be a lot of growth ahead. It’s worth watching Kinga Charpentier’s half-hour presentation on global trends in renewables.

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Yeah, but the EU is taking action on the matter. It’s true, of course, that quicker actions could/should be taken. China, for example, has built up its hydrogen infrastructure using grey hydrogen, which significantly accelerates the sector’s growth in this early stage.

Anyway, here’s the EU’s latest move. Half of the projects are in Spain. We’ve kind of lost this game.

https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/policy/eu-awards-nearly-1bn-to-15-projects-in-second-european-hydrogen-bank-auction/2-1-1822074?zephr_sso_ott=PvVDdl

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It’s true that I might be a bit pessimistic. However, for the past couple of years, I’ve been highlighting the perspective that when fossil fuels are “banned,” clean energy would present a huge opportunity for Europe. Of course, it requires taking risks, even big ones…but it’s so obvious that clean energy is coming.
When Europe just keeps following, following…it can’t win big or become a leader.
With Trump still doing his own thing, China is taking the pot, and fast. In business, these big winning opportunities are rare. You just have to seize them, even with risk.

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Well then, if/when the ‘big beautiful bill’ is approved, the big duck can then print MADA (make america dirty again) sun hats and umbrellas next. The country is withdrawing from its climate responsibilities and starting to destroy its own business in the green sector. At the same time, jobs in ‘disgusting sectors’ are eliminated, more pollution is pushed into the biosphere, and citizens’ energy costs are raised.

A Republican push to dismantle clean energy incentives threatens to reverberate across the US by costing more than 830,000 jobs, raising energy bills for US households and threatening to unleash millions more tonnes of the planet-heating pollution that is causing the climate crisis, experts have warned.

A major tax bill passed by the Republican-held House of Representatives on Thursday morning will, as currently written, demolish key components of climate legislation signed by Joe Biden that has spurred a record torrent of renewable energy and electric vehicle investment in the US.

Under the reconciliation bill, tax credits for cleaner cars will end this year, with incentives for wind, solar and even nuclear energy projects scaled down and then eliminated by 2032. Clean energy manufacturing tax credits will be axed by 2031, while Americans seeking to upgrade their homes to cleaner or more energy efficient appliances will get no further subsidy after the end of this year.

“This bill is worse than what people envisioned – it pulls the rug out from facilities banking on these incentives, it raises everyday household costs by hundreds of dollars and undercuts any sort of action on climate change,” said Robbie Orvis, senior director at Energy Innovation, a non-partisan climate policy thinktank.

“You can’t overstate how significant this will be in weakening the US’s position. With inflation, tariffs and rising electricity use, it really couldn’t come at a worse time. It’s a really damaging bill.”

Europe should now get its act together and take the driver’s seat in this matter too, while the Yanks are voluntarily sawing off their own branch.

Finally, a couple of positive signals from Europe regarding the hydrogen sector: SFC Energy’s and Powercell’s quarterly reports were quite encouraging. SFC is progressing towards a record year, even though Q1 fell short of the comparison period due to a large India delivery in 2024.

https://www.sfc.com/media/SFC_Investor-Presentation-1.pdf

Powercell, in turn, is approaching the break-even point driven by several sectors:

The collaboration with Hitachi is a very interesting addition. Things are going well with Bosch, and I understood between the lines that there might also be cooperation on the electrolysis side. The good development in the marine sector was a surprise even to me, as I haven’t followed it for a while.

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Point taken, but the last couple of years have been a bit of a difficult timeframe, because during that time the bureaucratic work required to implement previously announced support and investments has been done. So it feels like nothing has happened, even though things have actually progressed. Now, those supports and investments have started to be implemented quite generously. For example, Spain is implementing 1.2 billion in hydrogen investments in addition to the billion allocated by the EU:

I agree that things should have progressed faster. Hydrogen needs to have much looser emission requirements than currently for investments to be meaningful. This is a weakness of the EU, that hydrogen has been in a different position in this regard compared to others. The result is that billions are put into renewables and then angrily turned off the grid. Damn, this gives me a headache:
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https://x.com/jenshigh/status/1925207891713089751?t=CxT33GvWNAs-XH0gpQtXzw&s=19

But electrolyzer projects are indeed starting to be completed more frequently and new FIDs are emerging. And as I have written before, project sizes are definitely growing. The ones being completed now are often in the range of 5-20MW. Now, in the FID pipeline, there are 100MW-500MW projects, and even the GW class is not impossible. So let’s hope for the best.

It must also be said that the narrative has changed. Now it’s not just about emissions, but energy independence and also defense policy play the main role. These are the words with which these investments can be justified.

I’ll take a screenshot of the hydrogen summit’s takeaways. Rheinmetall, for example, has spoken out. I assume that e-fuels, for instance, are now gaining momentum.
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@Von_Wangell

Yes, the Americans cannot be left out of this train. Hydrogen brings more tools to the bank to reduce energy dependence on others. And that is one of Trump’s key theses too. Cutting emissions is a big bonus. Let’s see what the administration achieves, presumably confused chaos.

In addition, H2+fuel cells, with new technology, create such capabilities that the Americans cannot do without, nor can it be replaced by other technology. Now a Chinese hydrogen drone flew for 30 hours straight. In a militaristic sense, a hellishly alarming thing for the US Navy:

I lost a good LinkedIn post about H2 VTOLs. I’ll put it here once I find it. Absolutely important technology already in the near future.

Edit:
Found it:

Screenshot_20250523_230029_LinkedIn

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There’s plenty of room on the train. The Americans have so much oil of their own that they can easily wait a few years and only start investing in hydrogen once the technology is established and has become cheaper.

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