Movie studios and streaming (Disney, Netflix, Warner Bros, Paramount)

Comcast earnings. Universal Studios revenue is growing, but theme park attendance was a disappointment, streaming is still loss-making, and they are also considering spinning off their cable operations into a separate company.

Report:
https://www.cmcsa.com/static-files/3fac14b3-42f9-44ac-ac77-d9b5fdada211

Presentation:
https://www.cmcsa.com/static-files/29ba4c5d-596d-4dbd-88e0-caf9d7d9c360

image

The streaming service Peacock is still making insane losses.

Media results include $1.5 billion of revenue and Adjusted EBITDA loss of $436 million related to Peacock

On the conference call, Comcast said it is exploring making a new company comprising of cable networks.

Warner Q3. Revenue missed estimates, Studios still posted a weak result, and Networks’ earnings declined as advertising revenue fell again by -13%.

Free cash flow was also very low, and debt wasn’t significantly reduced, but because the result turned positive and Max added 7 million more users (essentially due to Max’s launch in Europe and the Olympics), the market reacted positively.

image

3 Likes

Disney’s earnings report seems to be well-received by the market. +9% in pre-market.

image

4 Likes

It seems that Disney is currently doing well in many different areas. EPS grew nicely and revenue also exceeded forecasts. Disney+ subscriber numbers grew more than expected, which speaks to its popularity in the streaming market.

Disney plans to increase its dividend in the future and also buy back its own shares. The company’s plan is also to continue strong earnings growth in the coming years.

image
image
https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1857090198103904260
image

Warner has settled its dispute with the NBA and will lose the rights to NBA games, but they will continue producing the Inside the NBA program, and in the future, it will be aired on ESPN. In practice, this means that TNT and Max will lose a series that is important to advertisers, and advertising revenue will collapse even further, but on the other hand, they will not have to pay billions annually for game broadcasting rights. The stock price will surely fluctuate as it seeks direction throughout next week.

3 Likes

Comcast has decided to spin off its cable channels into its own company, essentially acknowledging that they have no future and wanting to avoid writing them down as other companies did earlier this year. We will surely see more of this, and once Trump gains control of the FTC and FCC, a real merger frenzy will kick off in the industry next year as everyone looks for new partners.

https://www.cmcsa.com/news-releases/news-release-details/comcast-announces-intention-create-leading-independent-media

Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) today announced its intent to create a new publicly traded company comprised of a strong portfolio of NBCUniversal’s cable television networks, including USA Network, CNBC, MSNBC, Oxygen, E!, SYFY and Golf Channel along with complementary digital assets including Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow and Sports Engine, through a tax-free spin-off. The well-capitalized independent company (“SpinCo”) will have significant scale as a pure-play set of assets anchored by leading news, sports and entertainment content.

3 Likes

Disney Q1 2025

Revenue and earnings exceeded expectations, but domestic theme park results were disappointing and streaming subscriber numbers are declining. The Disney+ service was supposed to become a profitable business in 2024, but it doesn’t look good if streaming advertising revenue is declining.

  • 125 million Disney+ subscribers, a decrease of 0.7 million vs. Q4 fiscal 2024
  • Domestic Parks & Experiences operating income declined 5%
  • Direct-to-Consumer advertising revenue declined 2%
3 Likes

Disney performed better than expected for the beginning of the year, even though the company’s streaming service Disney+ lost subscribers. The service’s subscriber count decreased slightly, but its business apparently remained profitable. The company had, on the other hand, previously warned about potential subscriber count reductions.

Overall, Disney increased its revenue and achieved good results particularly in the entertainment and sports sectors; for example, the success of films like “Moana 2” and Marvel productions helped the results.

Theme parks and travel services also generated profit, even though the growth in visitor numbers has slowed down. ESPN’s sports operations grew, and additionally, Disney plans to launch a new sports streaming service later this year.

https://x.com/ConsensusGurus/status/1887110874122326378

image
image

https://x.com/EconomyApp/status/1887157462446535123

image
image

1 Like

Even though Hollywood is currently returning, movies are still being watched on the big screen in China. In the US, the entire weekend box office revenue was only $53 million, while at the same time in China, one movie is breaking the bank, having already grossed over a billion in 12 days.

It’s the well-known Disn
 no, wait, this is some completely unknown Chinese animation Ne Zha 2.

Among other things, the movie broke the record for revenue made in one country.

The record run also saw “Ne Zha 2” toppling the $936.7 million haul of “Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens” in North America, making it the biggest single-market box office champion of all time.

1 Like

Paramount’s Q4 earnings report missed expectations quite badly. Revenue was slightly below forecasts, but there was a bigger disappointment on the earnings front, as a profitable quarter was expected, and surprisingly, a loss was made, again. Paramount+ is still losing money.

Paramount plays accounting tricks with its numbers so egregiously that the figures are difficult to interpret. For example, full-year GAAP Diluted EPS was -$9.36 and Non-GAAP Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.54

Revenue: $7.98 billion vs analyst estimates of $8.14 billion
Adjusted EPS: -$0.11 vs analyst estimates of $0.13 billion.

image

The essential takeaway from the earnings report, in any case, is that the Skydance Merger would still be happening during H1.

image

5 Likes

Warner Q4 Earnings Report. Revenue nearly in line with estimates, but EPS missed, as a 0.03 profit was expected and the result was -0.2. Quarterly FCF $2.4 billion, but a -27% decrease from a year ago. The decline in advertising revenue is still concerning.

The conference call starts soon, and Zaslav will probably traditionally talk the stock price up, even though the report was quite meh this time.

image

Shareholder letter

As our industry continues to evolve, we believe successful companies need to exhibit two
abilities in tandem. First, the ability to consistently tell great stories. And second, the ability
to distribute these great stories across platforms and windows on a global scale in order to
capture their full value. Launching Max as a global streaming service last year marked a
watershed moment for WBD as it greatly strengthened our content monetization
capabilities.

3 Likes

A tender offer for Paramount Global (PARA) has appeared on Nordnet at $15 per share, but the stock price is still below $12. Can someone explain what kind of deal Skydance is offering and why there isn’t more belief in its completion?

1 Like

Paramount has performed the weakest among the major studios, and this has been reflected in its stock price. The company also has a lot of debt and an utterly terrible board and management.

Skydance has been working closely with Paramount for years, producing and financing the biggest poorly performing projects, so even if the management changes, the business itself won’t. Skydance has access to an almost endless cash reserve, which they can continue to squander and produce garbage with. However, I personally suspect that they want to get rid of the TV side, and CBS will be sold cheaply to Warner.

Paramount was also completely clueless when the streaming war began, and the company’s Paramount+ is still incurring shocking losses.

The merger is conditional on FCC approval, and Trump has appointed a person to lead it who is not very enthusiastic about this deal.

I call it a show, because as soon as father Ellison loads some bribes onto the table behind the scenes, or rather, announces his public support for Trump, the deal will eventually go through.

There are also several lawsuits against the company and its management. Skydance’s offer was not the best financially, but other offers were left on the table.

Oh, and then there’s also this Trump case, where he accuses CBS of favoring Kamala Harris and demands 20 billion in compensation.

3 Likes

Thanks for the excellent summary, so this is definitely not a normal purchase offer. With these words, however, it’s easy to take the $15 offer (even if it wasn’t the best and even if it doesn’t go through) and forget the whole adventure with this stock.

Comcast was the first to release its Q1 report. The market didn’t like it as the company once again lost broadband subscribers.

Universal’s theme parks are still generating steady revenue, but the Hollywood fires temporarily reduced visitor numbers. Streaming subscriber numbers have increased, but this is not reflected in the bottom line. The streaming service Peacock also reported a $215 million loss this quarter.

Earnings release - https://www.cmcsa.com/static-files/7f0f826a-6462-426b-a767-cb3170d7cdf0
Presentation - https://www.cmcsa.com/static-files/ce929fe6-52c8-4117-8c54-9d3c50c86bf8

image

Universal’s operations also have a direct impact on Disney’s results. Next month, the Epic Universe theme park will open in Florida, which will significantly affect visitor numbers at Disney’s theme parks. Disney World’s revenue accounts for 1/3 of the entire company’s results. Disney has reacted to this by lowering its prices for the first time in its history.

–

All film companies are trying to cut costs by moving their productions out of Hollywood, and if the trend continues, soon only the letters on the hill will be left of Hollywood.

image

2 Likes

WBD’s revenue decreased slightly compared to the previous year.

The company recorded a loss, but mainly due to costs related to acquisitions. However, the profitability of its own operations improved slightly, especially thanks to streaming and studio operations.

Cash flow remained positive, but free cash flow remained at a relatively low level.

https://x.com/Earnings_Time/status/1920444456823591203
image
image


Company’s Own Materials

image

1 Like

themoreyouknow200 (19)

9 Likes

More drama and risky situations for Warner.

A couple of weeks ago, S&P downgraded Warner’s credit rating to junk status.
https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/warner-bros-discovery-credit-rating-junk-status-1236404973/

The credit rating downgrade came as a surprise to the management, but they decided to strike back now and announced they might pay back up to 14 billion in loans.

WarnerMedia, have commenced offers to purchase substantially all of their outstanding notes and debentures for an aggregate purchase price of up to $14.6 billion.

https://ir.corporate.discovery.com/news-and-events/financial-news/financial-news-details/2025/Warner-Bros--Discovery-Announces-Commencement-of-Cash-Tender-Offer-and-Consent-Solicitation/default.aspx

And that’s not all, the board has decided to split the company back into Warner and Discovery. :man_facepalming:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/09/warner-bros-discovery-to-split-into-two-public-companies-by-next-year.html

Presentation on the split: https://s201.q4cdn.com/336605034/files/doc_presentations/Warner-Bros-Discovery-Investor-Presentation-06-09-25.pdf

image

5 Likes

Paramount-Skydance acquiring all of Warner Bros. with cash. The deal also involves Paramount’s CEO’s father, Larry Ellison, who became the world’s richest man yesterday due to Oracle’s stock price increase.

Paramount Skydance Prepares Ellison-Backed Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery

Paramount Skydance is preparing a majority cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery that is backed by the Ellison family, according to people familiar with the situation.

The bid will be for the entire company, including its cable networks and movie studio, the people said. Warner said late last year it planned to restructure into two operating divisions, one focused on the legacy cable TV business and the other on streaming and studios.

More information behind a paywall https://www.wsj.com/business/media/paramount-skydance-prepares-ellison-backed-bid-for-warner-bros-discovery-0b921c20?mod=mw_quote_news

9 Likes

Quite a bidding war going on for Warner, I just got interested when the Saudi PIF fund also started raising their bid. Who do you think will win?