Yes, something has been pumped, and because of that, Q4 might not have as good cash flow as in previous years, but if you scroll through 5 years of Q4 reports, Q4 has always been by far the strongest quarter in terms of cash flow. So, relatively, it might not be as strong as in recent years, but I would be surprised if net debt isn’t also pushed down in the last quarter. And the strong operating profit margin already in Q3 doesn’t hurt in this regard for Q4.
While pondering this, I have now concluded that when negotiating during Q1, the assumption was that Q1 and Q2 would already perform better in terms of operating profit/revenue, and the trend would improve towards the end of the year. Then the market didn’t ease at all, and the expected improvements for 2026 now look challenging from the current level. Could they have expected a return to closer to the €15 million operating profit level in 2026? In any case, I’ve arrived at pretty much the same conclusion as you.
Tässä on Petrin kommentit henkilöstöpalvelualan laskumenosta lokakuussa.
*According to the staffing industry’s revenue survey, the revenue of the 20 largest companies in the sector was approximately EUR 120 million in October, which represents an 8% decrease year-on-year. The development of the overall market is essentially linked to temporary staffing
This has been in several threads today, but let’s save it in Eezy’s thread too, as we are sniffing out a turnaround in the economic situation. In October, the pick-up continued in both construction and industry. Retail sales figures were also good in October.
Unfortunately, this good buzz was not yet reflected in Hela’s October figures (Petri’s comments on this above in @Sijoittaja-alokas’s message) even though they already had growth expectations for this Q4.
Well, the goals are good, but when revenue and the stock price have been declining for a long time, and a couple of strategy rounds have had similar goals – it certainly requires effort to believe in these… And at the same time, to believe in the turnaround of the Finnish economy.
More details behind the link.
Eezy’s long-term goals 2028:
Over 330 million € chain revenue
Over 200 million € group revenue
Over 5% operating profit from group revenue
Eezy’s goal is to continue distributing 30–50 percent of the financial year’s profit as dividends.
The growth target is quite ambitious, but in terms of profitability, it’s rather moderate. In my opinion, profitability should be better in relation to revenue simply because we have shifted more towards a franchising model. Less top line, but more bottom line? Compared to the chain’s revenue, that same 5% would only be just over 3% operating profit.
In euro terms, November revenue in staffing services has already turned positive (working-day adjusted), while in volume terms, it remains just slightly negative. Is a solid bottom being found for the industry?
Hela’s November monthly review. Still a sharp drop (approx. 10%) compared to last November, but some kind of working day adjustment would probably be appropriate. On the other hand, the economic outlook strengthened again to a very good level, which should bode well for the future.
Of course, Wulff Works, which is missing from Hela’s statistics, already generated €10 million in revenue last quarter, so €2–3 million of that monthly drop could well be revenue taken by Wulff alone. From Eezy’s perspective, it is to be hoped that it has been taken more evenly from others besides just Eezy.
Here are Petri’s comments on the (miserable) state of the staffing industry.
According to the staffing industry revenue survey, the revenue of the 20 largest companies in the industry was approximately EUR 115 million in November, which corresponds to a decline of nearly 11% year-on-year. The development of the overall market is essentially linked to staffing services, which accounted for approximately 82% of the largest players’ revenue in November. Consequently, the revenue of staffing services was approximately EUR 94 million, representing a decline of just under 10% from the comparison period.
According to the latest Ilmarinen Business Cycle Index, the decline in the number of employees in the staffing industry was only 1 percent in December. In November, it was still -3%.
Revenue from employment services grew by 4.7% from last December, and by 1.6% when measured by volume. In the final quarter, the market as a whole grew by a couple of percent, and it was the first quarter of growth since Q1 2023.
I am certainly looking forward to Eezy’s Q4 report with great interest. There are many reasons to expect a positive report:
Profitability already strengthened in Q3, and the profit improvement program supports profitability in Q4 as well. Westermarck seems to be quite strict about cost discipline.
The economic cycle improved in Q4, and this improvement should be strongly reflected in staffing companies. The impact of Wulff Works, on the other hand, may show as negative development.
Nothing has been heard about the financing negotiations, although there has also been no announcement that a share issue is being planned.
On the negative side:
Westermarck has not bought shares, nor has the rest of the management. When joining Bittium, Westermarck bought shares fairly soon and has held them quite profitably throughout the entire rise. On the other hand, the ongoing financing negotiations and the late autumn strategy update are likely the kind of matters being handled during which trading is not possible.
If development turns positive this year in terms of revenue and earnings, Eezy offers strong earnings leverage upwards due to its debt. Of course, on the risk side, the leverage works just as well downwards (share issue). In my own forecasts, I already expect an EBITDA of €13m this year versus Petri’s €11.7m. With an EBITDA of €13m, free cash flow (after investments, interest, rents, and taxes) could be €3-4m, which would be quite strong for a company valued at €20m.
Eezy’s Q4 results will be released in a week on Wednesday, February 11th.
The economic situation remains icy in January according to Hela’s fresh report. However, according to them as well, the decline in December was smaller than in other months.
Here are Petri’s preview comments as Eezy reports its results on Wednesday
We predict that the company’s profitability has improved from the weak level of the comparison period, despite our estimate that the decline in demand has continued to hit the company’s revenue significantly. We do not expect the company to pay a dividend for last year, and in connection with the report, the focus will be on the company’s financial position and the status of financing negotiations.
Here are also Petri’s comments on December in the staffing services industry.
According to the staffing industry revenue survey, the revenue of the 20 largest companies in the sector was approximately EUR 118 million in December, which corresponds to a decline of about 5% from a year ago. The development of the overall market is essentially linked to staffing services, which accounted for about 82% of the revenue of the largest players in December. Consequently, the revenue from staffing services was approximately EUR 97 million, representing a moderate 2% decrease from the comparison period.
Here are Petri’s quick comments on the Q4 results.
Eezy published its Q4 results this morning, which fell short of our forecasts despite a clear improvement in profitability. As expected, the company will not pay a dividend for last year, nor did it provide guidance for the current year. The company’s indebtedness remains very high, but contrary to previous comments, Eezy now estimates that it will meet its financial covenants during the current year.
Revenue development was weak as Eezy lagged behind Helan’s statistics, but profitability remained at a good level after Q3 and cash flow was strong. The best part of the report was that any mention of challenging covenant levels was conspicuously absent, and thus the worst-case scenario (a share issue) is likely more improbable than before. Now we just need to get the top line growing along with the market this year, and the bottom line will start to improve with leverage.
Looking forward to hearing Westermarck’s comments this afternoon, especially regarding sales.
Petri spoke with Eezy’s CEO Johan Westermarck regarding Q4.
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:14 Q4 highlights
01:44 Successes and challenges of 2025
03:33 Efficiency benefits of the new ERP system
04:49 Revenue decline
06:23 Professional services
07:49 Financial position
09:19 Market outlook
11:24 Updated strategy
12:45 Growth target
14:11 Profitability target
16:19 Structural profitability of the industry
Here is the company report on Eezy written by Petri
Eezy’s performance at the end of 2025 was operationally slightly weaker than we anticipated, although its profitability strengthened clearly as cost levels decreased. Due to the weak earnings level and high indebtedness, a market-driven turnaround in demand is paramount. In this regard, the recent economic news flow has been encouraging, although no concrete signs of a turnaround have yet emerged from the market. With the earnings growth we forecast, the stock has significant upside potential for the coming years. This potential now outweighs the risks in our assessment, so we are upgrading our recommendation to Accumulate (prev. Reduce) and our target price to EUR 0.88 (prev. EUR 0.80) following a decrease in the required rate of return. The CEO’s Q4 interview can be viewed at this link.
