The articles in Arvopaperi are no longer visible, but I have broken down the most essential points for this forum myself. The same points that were in the AP (Arvopaperi) article can be found in the financial statements, so for those who have read them closely, there is practically nothing particularly new, other than management’s perspective on things, which supports this narrative of it being a turnaround company.
The first key message is that old customers are reordering. This same point is also in the financial statements, but there it is presented more indirectly through the order backlog and the continuity of customer relationships. In the gas turbine business, this is a very significant signal because suppliers are not changed lightly. Once a filter has been approved for use, the commitment is practically long-term. Repeat orders mean the product works and the customer trusts it. The slick-haired types are obsessing over how many new customers are coming in, but in this business, a new order from an old customer is what indicates the product is performing as expected.
The second key point is that demand is not the problem; rather, delivery capacity has been the bottleneck. In the AP article, this is stated directly, whereas in the financial statements, it appears as growth in the order backlog and delivery delays. This suggests that the market is pulling, but the company hasn’t yet been fully able to meet the demand. The role of automation investments is precisely to solve this problem.
The third important message relates to financing. The company reports that it has received waivers from its creditors and believes it will continue to receive them in the future. This same issue is presented more formally in the financial statements as notes related to continuity and the company’s belief that these concessions will be obtained moving forward. In practice, this means that the financiers trust the company’s future cash flow and have been able to justify why the loan covenants have not been met.
Waivers are not granted unless there is a realistic possibility of the situation improving; otherwise, creditors seek to salvage what can be salvaged—meaning they call in the receivables and drive the company into bankruptcy because they want to stop burning money before it runs out. In this case, the creditors do not see it that way.
The fourth point is that the weakness in revenue is not due to a lack of demand but rather timing. The AP article highlights delivery delays caused by customers. The same explanation is found in the financial statements, which state that significant deliveries were not recorded as revenue within the planned schedule. This is typical in the project business, where the timing of individual deliveries can swing the figures significantly when they don’t hit the expected quarter.
The fifth observation relates to communication and timing. The same facts already exist in the financial statements, but the AP article presents them as a clear overall picture. The fact that management wants to bring this forward right now suggests that, in their view, the operational foundation is in order and the next phase is the realization of growth in the numbers.
Overall, the message is quite consistent with the financial statements. Nothing strictly new emerged, but things were said more directly. In the gas turbine filter business, this means that once customer relationships are established and products are approved for use, the business gradually becomes recurring. In this case, the primary risk is not a lack of demand, but the ability to deliver products efficiently and profitably so that they are on the customer’s site when maintenance begins.
As a final note, it can be observed that although an order of about half a million was received from the fabric side last summer and this has been mentioned in previous reviews, it has not yet been reflected in revenue during 2025. This reflects the company’s current situation well: there is demand and there are orders, but revenue recognition occurs with a delay.
During the earn-out period (2023–2025), revenue has clearly been affected by the timing of deliveries, delays, and the nature of the projects. Consequently, part of the order backlog will likely not be realized until 2026. In practice, this means that if delivery capacity is sorted out, the company has the prerequisites to move into the so-called harvest phase, and the news flow could turn significantly more positive, even if individual challenges still arise.