Having followed the scene for a while, I’ll share my own view of the industry and why I don’t have any esports companies in my portfolio.
The biggest segments in the industry are:
- Game studios
- Tournament organizers
- Teams
- Streaming services
Among these segments, I would definitely not invest in teams at the moment. Why? Because their position in the industry is really poor. It also depends heavily on which game is being played, but for example in Dota (which I follow), players have extremely high power. Teams’ success is very strongly tied to tournament performance, of course (visibility + tournament wins). This success is very difficult to guarantee. Organizations do not get multi-year contracts for players—unlike in traditional sports—and players change teams very easily. In esports, a team is almost always built by the players, and if the players don’t gel, the team changes, and the organization very rarely has any say in this. For this reason, esports fans most often root for the players, not the organizations, which is a big difference from traditional sports.
I wouldn’t invest in tournament organizers either, because esports consumers are (at least currently) the worst demographic ever. They consume little, partly due to their age, so it’s difficult to market to them. The free nature of tournament streams is an intrinsic value to them, and they would never be willing to pay to watch esports. But couldn’t a tournament organizer put its streams up for bid among different platforms and get a hefty contract? NOPE! ESL tested this with Facebook: fans were outraged and viewership dropped dramatically. The contract was lucrative for ESL, but they had to terminate it after a year because it was a PR farce. Esports is only watched for free and only on Twitch, maybe also YouTube. Of course, tournament ticket sales and merchandise sales bring in some money, but in my opinion, the megatrends don’t really support this either. Fans are introverts who prefer to watch esports on their own computer, with a couple of friends on Discord. I myself think this is the best way to consume esports.
Streaming platforms could be a more interesting investment target, but as already stated, Twitch dominates this field. In my opinion, Twitch has a really big moat that is almost impossible to break. This moat is called Twitch culture. The vast number of streamers, their own memes, and Twitch chat are difficult to replicate. Twitch is the home of gamers. Mixer has tried to buy big streamers with money, but viewers don’t seem to be migrating. 99% of content is still on Twitch. Of course, you can invest in Twitch through Amazon, but everyone surely understands that even if Twitch multiplied its value tenfold, it would have a negligibly small effect on Amazon’s stock price.
Game studios are, in my opinion, the most interesting investment target among these segments. While players’ consumption habits may otherwise be weak, they are certainly willing to pour money into long-term esports games. Every year, Dota’s The International tournament raises an absurdly large prize pool from skin sales. Last year, the figure was $34 million, and that amount is collected from a couple of months’ worth of skin sales, of which 25% goes to the prize pool. Valve thus sold 136 million worth of virtual pixels in Dota alone during that time. Oh, and TI’s prize pool has increased every year for 10 years. Selling skins is a really lucrative business, and loot boxes are essentially gambling, which is known to be a good business. This gambling can even be sold to minors, which sounds crazy, and this issue will likely be regulated away.
However, there are very few successful esports games on the market. The reason for this is that these games are very difficult to make because the game must find a balance between competitive play and casual play.
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If a game is made only with casual players in mind = No esports scene will emerge because competitive play is not interesting for viewers or pro players.
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If a game is made only with competitive players in mind = No esports scene will emerge because the game’s player base will not grow large enough due to a difficult learning curve.
In addition, the game requires constant updates and changes to remain interesting. There are only a few games that have successfully found their place in esports, and the barrier to entry is huge. Currently, Valorant is a game that is crossing this threshold and will likely join the select few esports games. Behind Valorant is Tencent, with a turnover of 300 billion, which has carried out an absurdly large marketing campaign on Twitch. So, becoming an esports game is not easy.
Currently, the biggest game studios in esports are:
- Riot
- Valve
- Blizzard
- Epic Games
Outside of these companies, there isn’t a single successful esports game. The selection is thus weak from an investment perspective, especially considering that Valve is not listed on the stock exchange. In addition, the giant company Tencent owns Riot and half of Epic Games from this list (the other half is privately owned). So, the investor is left with Blizzard and Tencent as options.
Regarding Blizzard, I must say that the company was a trendsetter in the entire industry in the early 2000s and very popular among players. After the Activision merger, things have been downhill since 2013, at least in terms of PR. Blizzard somehow manages to anger its own core audience time and time again with the silliest things. Games are released sluggishly, and they can’t balance esports games, so, for example, Overwatch’s metagame became really boring. Blizzard did, however, somehow manage to sell 20 team slots in the Overwatch League for $50 million each. These investors in team slots were some elderly owners of NFL teams, to whom Blizzard’s salesmen probably chanted esports buzzwords and the old folks experienced FOMO. These investors will never get their money back. The Overwatch League is dying more every year, and it may be that Valorant is the final nail in the coffin. But at least Blizzard raked in the cash.
So, the last investment option is Tencent. However, Tencent has the same problem as Twitch and Amazon. Tencent is one of China’s most valuable companies by market capitalization. The company is not solely dependent on Epic and Riot. If it were, I might invest. Epic Games, in particular, seems interesting. The company has made many successful game moves, such as the acquisition of Rocket League and the marketing of Fortnite. Epic also owns Unreal Engine, which, for example, the new hit game Valorant was made with. However, with Tencent comes an absurd number of companies that I would not want to own, so what can you do?
That turned out to be a long rant
But the biggest problem with investing in esports is that there is very little selection on the stock exchange, and the few successful esports companies are just a small part of some giant corporation.