Being at the mercy of the bank is the worst possible situation. Last time, according to Ämmälä, relations with the financiers were supposedly excellent, yet we still ended up with a 20 million rights issue (merkkarianti). It completely destroyed shareholder value, and now the share price is clearly anticipating the same.
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According to the article, lubricants have remained readily available in Finland. Still, I wouldn’t find it surprising at all if retailers have now taken slightly more oil products into their own inventories just in case.
Conditions for hobbies remained very good in Finland throughout Q3. According to the recent Confederation of Finnish Industries (EK) confidence indicator, retail sales have been strong and inventories are clearly below the historical average. Of course, the figures for the entire retail sector are a bit of a “shotgun approach” (hehtaaripyssy) compared to Duell’s specific figures.
In France, economic figures and consumer sentiment have been gloomy, so there certainly won’t be any help from that market for an already challenging situation. In the UK, retail sales figures were also sluggish. I still expect strong development from Duell in the Nordics for Q3, but elsewhere it will surely be weaker, and visibility there is poor for me.
I believe that net working capital will develop favorably, and consequently, indebtedness will decrease quite significantly during the remainder of the financial year. However, the earnings level is still so weak that unfortunately much likely remains in the hands of the bank.
How do industry players like @S_Nyyssonen see the current business environment and what does your inventory level monitoring look like?
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March figures for motorcycle-related trade have also come out of Sweden, and it appears to be the highest monthly figure ever. I wonder what the driver is now:
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In terms of seasonal conditions for recreational riding, Q3 could hardly have been better for Duell, at least in the Nordics.
I have received cautious signals that business has been picking up for many operators in the industry.
From what I’ve been tracking regarding stock levels, goods have been selling well; some products have even sold out or inventory levels are showing zero, with additional deliveries appearing to arrive in June. (This applies more to ATV-related products).
On the equipment and gear side, it’s harder to get an overall picture due to the massive selection, but I have my own tracking points for a few specific products and those are moving at a steady pace as well.
Based on what I’ve heard from the field, they are taking real measures to move goods out of the warehouse and free up capital. (Which makes sense, as they still have almost 4 times more wealth tied up there than the market capitalization at current prices after debt).
Regarding oil products, there was also an announcement that price increases will take effect starting June 1st. As a result, I bought a pallet of snowmobile oil for my own stock for next winter, and I don’t believe prices for these will be coming down anytime soon.
I’ve also noticed that Duell has introduced entirely new brands to their selection over the past month or so. (These would hardly be added if the company were facing a cash shortage or a liquidity crisis).
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I recently drove a longer distance in Finland, and I encountered more motorcycles than I can ever remember, and they weren’t groups going to rallies or such. Similarly, there were truck convoys just like in Central Europe; for the first time in Finland, I saw strings of 5-7 trucks. There were also many foreign trucks—industry in Finland is already running at high revs, hopefully this will finally start to show in the orders of domestic market companies.
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In Finland as well, the retail segments connected to Duell performed well in April compared to the last couple of years. Good figures were already received earlier from March.
Last year’s May was particularly dismal (motorcycles), so with the current weather conditions, we will likely see +20% stronger performance, and 6-8% growth for the entire quarter.
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Retail data from Sweden arrived this morning as well, showing bicycle-related trade at last year’s April levels. Overall, March-April is now slightly ahead of last year and the best since 2022.
Norway shows strong figures in categories linked to Duell. Especially that rightmost column, which includes all motorcycle-related trade.
If Duell does not achieve growing figures in the Nordics during Q3 in this market, then something is likely seriously wrong operationally.
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Iivo added more again:
Säästöpankki managed to sell the rest:
There are now several of these likely Duell customers on the lists:
An interesting addition is also consultant Karppinen, who apparently has some expertise with turnaround companies:
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Motorcycle registrations in May were slightly higher (5.7%) than a year ago. During Duell’s Q3, registrations increased every month compared to the same period last year. Of course, the levels are clearly more modest than in the years prior to that:
Mopeds exceeded last year’s May figures even more significantly (26%). There, too, every month was stronger than last year, and by a fair margin:
The same story goes for tractors (ATVs are most commonly registered as tractors):
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The updated comprehensive report on Duell is attached. I revised the Q3’26 forecasts upwards due to better-than-expected market development in the Nordics, regarding which data points have also been shared here in the thread. The forecasts are now slightly above the guidance, but likely in line with the company’s “approximately” phrasing. Despite the forecast changes, the balance sheet position remains tight towards the end of the financial year. In the current year’s forecast, adj. EBITA is largely consumed by financial expenses, and debt repayment relies on a decrease in inventory levels (y/y), which did not yet kick off in H1. Thus, the improvement in earnings and cash flow for the 2027 financial year (starting Sept 1, 2026) would be central for the stock, but I would keep expectations moderate regarding the turnaround in France. Ramping up brands in a new market is unlikely to be achieved in a heartbeat.
As is typical for turnaround companies, a successful earnings recovery would still provide excellent returns despite the recent share price rise, and price movements are likely to remain volatile. Catching the absolute bottom seems like a pipe dream for me 
, and taking a view on the stock was challenging. The short-term price trend is strongly against the recommendation, but we are doing fundamental analysis here.
The most significant additions to the comprehensive report are a more extensive overview of the competitive landscape and a more detailed breakdown of the valuation history in the valuation section. One more highlight: in the market section, I plotted Duell’s organic growth and the consumer confidence indicators of key markets from recent years on the same graph. The correlation looks surprisingly neat. Enjoy the read 
ps. feedback is encouraged and can be sent, for example, via forum private message.
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I took a quick look and need to dive deeper later. However, it seems like a high-quality set of materials with a lot of new information compared to before. The competitor analysis, in particular, was interesting 
It looks like more working capital (käyttöpääoma) will be released toward the end of the fiscal year this time, partly because the French business is significantly smaller than before. The flip side of the lost brands is that there is also less need to maintain inventory.
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Heh, so what about that share issue, is it coming yet? 
“Tight balance sheet position” still remains in the vocabulary… I’m waiting with great interest to see what fairy tales you’ll come up with after the Q3 report.
It’s also amusing to claim you’re doing fundamental analysis (funda-analyysi) while simultaneously swinging the target price along with the market from €2.30 → €1.30 → €2.00 within a couple of months. 
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““Tight balance sheet position” still remains in the vocabulary… I’m waiting with great interest to see what fairy tales you come up with after the Q3 report.”
@S_Nyyssonen, did you have any actual substance to offer as a counter-argument to the Inderes analysis?
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Critique towards an analysis can probably be presented a bit more constructively, or do you disagree? This is, of course, just my own opinion and you are certainly allowed to disagree. As a daily user of this forum, I for one cannot accept this kind of language, where one seeks to imply their own excellence between the lines while simultaneously speaking condescendingly toward others.
Clearly, you have a strong personal view that differs from the mainstream regarding Duell. I would hope that you could write here with a bit more respect for others. It is nice to read different perspectives with their supporting arguments, but if you wish to continue in this manner, then perhaps it is better for you to write your messages in your own private diary instead.
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In principle, it is of course a bit annoying to read an analysis that is based solely on a one-year target price. I assume most shareholders expect the earnings to normalize back to a 5% operating margin, at which point P/B=1 becomes a relevant option, meaning approximately 9 euros. That was also Inderes’ target price a year ago… The threat of a share issue was also mentioned by Sauli Vilén; it feels a bit like Finnish investors are quite cautious compared to, for example, the Swedes 
Just over 20 years ago, stocks weren’t this cheap at P/B=0.2. When forest industry companies, construction companies, or Outokumpu made a 10% operating loss, the P/B went to a level of 0.5 at most, not below that.
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I am not targeting this at any specific user, but there has certainly been some quite blatant pumping and dumping (vedätys) in this thread in both directions.
I wish Duell and all other companies nothing but the best, of course.
Calculating the correct valuation for Duell is certainly challenging, but fortunately, we will get more facts on the table in the next interim report.
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Tommi’s target price adjustments are completely logical considering what has happened. Precisely because of that tight balance sheet position, the situation swings violently in one direction or another. Isn’t that the most notable characteristic of financial leverage? My own view has swung in the same way as Tommi’s.
Before Q3, the assumption for Duell and others was rather that the market would remain subdued. Now, statistics in the Nordics show quite the opposite, so we can assume sales are still performing well. When the balance sheet position has been tight regarding covenants, good revenue already has a very positive impact as inventory converts into debt repayment, even if profitability remains sluggish.
Duell is currently a fairly binary investment in terms of whether additional financing is needed or not, and recently, the development has been such that the probability of needing extra funding is decreasing, which in turn increases the company’s value. Furthermore, a target price is just an analyst’s best guess for the share price a year from now, and its starting point is always what the markets are willing to pay at the moment (valuation multiples). In any case, it’s better to focus on the content of the analysis rather than the target prices.
I have also written here about Duell in one direction or another, but I’ve always justified my views in some way. Of course, I have been wrong many times.
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Inderes’ target price range is therefore €3 without the rights issue and €1.5 with the rights issue. If Inderes were as patient here as they are with Aiforia, then that €3 is still quite low and of course, it’s just my own opinion that since Eezy has €42m in debt at the end of the year (forecast) and Duell only has €18m, I only dare to invest in the latter… I wonder if Duell should get back the same analyst that Eezy has now. They don’t go negative so easily with Kinnunen
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I have written my views here several times already: the fact that an analyst cannot take balance sheet values or even seasonality into account in their analysis, but instead rambles about share issues and a tight balance sheet position, is unprofessionalism at its worst—for which Inderes is even being paid.
Just a couple of months ago, you could buy Duell’s 30 million euro debt-free inventory from the market for 6 million euros; this has now risen to → 10.5 million euros, which is still next to nothing, especially if Duell returns to growth.
If you listened to the analyst, you lost your money and sold your shares in a panic while the price was at rock bottom; now they are trying to fix it by raising the target price by +55% after the share price has already climbed.
Regarding the language used, I could certainly write more constructively, so apologies for that.
EDIT: I understand the use of the term “tight balance sheet position” in cases where a company is making significant losses and has far too much debt relative to its carrying capacity and valuation, causing the debt amount to grow as a result.
None of this applies to Duell, which operates with an equity ratio of over 50%. Its capital is many times its market capitalization, and in general, there is significantly more wealth than debt, so one would think even an analyst would understand how to assign some value to this.
Of course, what do I know? I’m just shouting from the sidelines with a +40% return on Duell so far.
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I’m somewhat on the same lines regarding that target price adjustment—the analyst unnecessarily started chasing the rather drastic share price movement seen this spring.
In my opinion, such a steep drop occurred because a couple of large shareholders got fed up and dumped their shares onto the bid side (laitaan). Duell’s monthly trading volume over the last year has been around 250,000 shares, and during that crash, about 650,000 shares were dumped in three days, with the highest daily volume reaching 350,000 shares. Few stocks can withstand that kind of volume shift, especially when the relative amount of shares hitting the market exceeded 10% of all outstanding shares…
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