God forbid, 10 million from this too and 14 million from Tran Am. Now the entire company’s market cap is 21 million.
Much, much more has been bought.
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Here are Petri’s comments on Duell’s efficiency measures for its Nordic logistics. 
The arrangement is part of the company’s efficiency program, and its goal is to achieve annual savings of approximately EUR 0.5 million. The savings support our forecasts for the company’s earnings improvement but do not cause immediate pressure for changes to our forecasts.
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A weak August in terms of revenue for Duell’s segment in Finland. In terms of volume, Duell’s entire Q4 ultimately ended up at practically the same levels compared to last year. June’s good figures were probably due to a dismal May, which shifted sales to June. In this morning’s data, June and July figures were also revised downwards.
There is no precise information on European figures, but as I understand it, the consumer is quite gloomy at the moment, especially in France, and consumption has not been particularly robust elsewhere compared to last year. The market environment has therefore probably still been somewhat poor for Duell. Although in Finland, that Q3 was even gloomier.
Well, consumer confidence in the larger markets of Finland and Sweden has at least been strengthening recently, so we won’t completely succumb to gloom even with this message.
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Sebiltä tuoretta raporttia Q4:n alla:
Eyes on inventory reduction
Cool weather at the start of the summer pressured Duell’s market environment, but the weather improved towards the end of Q4. After its profit warning in June, Duell’s balance sheet risk increased. We believe the company tried to strike a balance between cash flow generation and profitability in Q4, a period of seasonal inventory reduction. We think success in inventory management is important for avoiding balance sheet risk.
Viilasivat käyvän arvon haarukkaa alaspäin:
Fair value for the equity at EUR 4.0-4.6 per share (previously EUR 4.1-4.9) We set our fair equity value range at EUR 4.0-4.6 per share based on DCF and peer group valuation. Duell is operating below its historical profitability levels, and short-term risks are elevated given the weak trend and stretched leverage.
Odottavat Q4:lla vain 0,4milj€ EBITAa. Itse toivoisin Duellin ylittävän analyytikoiden odotukset sen perusteella, että tuo surkea kevät antoi vähän liiankin synkeät suuntaviivat kesän myynnille ja kelien parantuessa trendikin olisi ollut parempi. Lisäksi surkealle Q2:lla lainattiin jo inasen bisnestä Q3:lta eli Q3 oli kaikin puolin surkea ja Q4 ei olisi aivan niin surkea verrattuna viime vuoteen (oik. EBITA 1,5milj€). No, pari viikkoa ja sitten kuullaan tuloksesta ja tärkeästä tasetilanteesta.
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Based on SEB’s recent report and Statistics Finland’s statistics, I was once again inspired to crunch some numbers. I just don’t quite understand the analysts’ forecasts.
According to Statistics Finland, Duell’s Q3 sales, service, and repair (revenue) of motorcycles and their parts and accessories in Finland dropped by 3.3%, and Duell’s Nordics dropped by about 4%. Now, in Q4, the same statistic is even slightly positive, yet Duell’s Nordic revenue is expected to have decreased by about 7% in Inderes’ forecasts (SEB even 11%). As I understand it, the market in Sweden would have been even slightly better. Of course, Duell has other product categories.
Although profitability is now being defended due to covenants, I do expect numbers exceeding analysts’ forecasts for revenue. There might also be opportunities for better profitability if better weather conditions have directed consumers to more profitable channels for Duell after May (smaller repair shops/stores instead of online retail).
Inderes expects revenue to decrease by 4.5% in Q4 (SEB even more), and since the krona has strengthened, the decrease would have been even larger at neutral exchange rates. The guidance, however, allows for even a small increase in revenue for Q4.
The rest of Europe is more of a question mark for me, and France, in particular, has likely been sluggish.
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“Fear leads to the dark side,” said a certain Master Yoda in a galaxy far, far away. My own strong belief is that during poor weather, when motorcycles are in storage, cost-effective online shopping is easily overrepresented — which surely reflected in the +20% growth figures of two large European e-commerce companies. The timing of sales in the value chain is, of course, difficult to predict from the outside (when have the pre-orders from March/April been consumed, and have retailers had the courage to fill their inventories towards the end of summer). Q3 saw the weakest gross margin in Duell’s entire stock market history, yet analysts are predicting an even weaker margin for Q4. Of course, seasonality provides historical grounds for this (end-of-season sales), but I can very well see potential grounds for improved/stable gross margin development.
Edit. There has been very little trading in the stock; the market is in a waiting stance towards the results in 2 weeks.
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The valuation is abysmal. Idereski gave up after recommending buying from over a hundred and to keep buying all the way down. A profitable company, it’s strange that there
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Shouldn’t a breach of covenants be reported immediately if it has occurred? The result and situation are now known.
No need to report. The company already knows the result and situation.
If such a modest €0.4 million adjusted EBITA as predicted by SEB were to come in Q4, then the full year would only amount to €4.3 million. In that case, the guidance “adjusted EBITA is expected to remain below last year’s level” is certainly a mild expression, considering the comparable period’s EBITA was €6.2 million. I don’t know Duell’s practices for verbal guidance, but surely some companies in such a situation would clarify with words like “clearly,” “significantly,” or release preliminary figures in advance. As Duell did in 2023.
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The stock has come down over 40%, so the decline in earnings has already been somewhat factored in.
I’m surprised that it doesn’t predict any turnaround in the market and earnings.
It has already more than halved since the reverse split; there’s always room to come down even if it’s making earnings.
Diligent evening worker Tommi Saarinen has given his preliminary comments as Duell publishes its Q4 report on Thursday.
Duell will publish its Q4 report on Thursday, October 16, in line with an atypical financial year periodization. We expect revenue to have decreased slightly from the comparison period’s level and profitability to have continued its subdued development due to an unfavorable sales mix. The balance sheet position remains tight, but we do not expect a potential breach of covenant terms to cause groundbreaking negative consequences. On the reporting date, interest will focus not only on the balance sheet position but also on the guidance for the current financial year and comments regarding long-term financial targets, as the company removed previous targets after the profit level fell short of expectations in the past financial year. We revised our revenue forecast slightly upwards in connection with the preview, but this had no impact on the operating profit forecasts.
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Sluggish September for motorcycle registrations:
In contrast, really strong growth for snowmobiles:
August was already very strong:
Do these autumn snowmobile registrations reflect Lapland’s strong tourism growth figures and safari houses acquiring new snowmobiles for tourist use? Or are there some changes regarding registrations that explain the really strong growth?
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It’s quite certainly new safari snowmobiles, so one shouldn’t draw many conclusions from that, nor about new equipment regarding Duell, as they mainly sell spare parts for old equipment.
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Well, not directly, of course, but it is very significant for Duell how many motorcycles, snowmobiles, etc., Finns acquire, for which these very spare parts/accessories are purchased. Duell itself also quite closely monitors first registrations in different countries. Of course, accessories are often also bought when a new vehicle is acquired.
First reactions to the financial statement release live tomorrow. Welcome to join! 
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Duell’s Q3 out, ah, it seems it was a financial statement release, I don’t follow the company myself: Duell Oyj tilikauden 2025 liiketoimintakatsaus syyskuu 2024–elokuu 2025 | Kauppalehti
The full-year and comparative year figures presented below are derived from the published financial statements. The fiscal year figures and quarterly figures are audited. The comparative period figures are based on audited financial statements.
June 2025–August 2025 “Q4 2025” (comparative figures in parentheses 6/2024–8/2024):
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Revenue decreased by -2.3% and was 30.9 million euros (31.6 million euros). Calculated at comparable exchange rates, revenue decreased by -1.1%.
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Adjusted EBITA was 1.0 million euros (1.4) and adjusted EBITA margin was 3.4% (4.3%).
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Net working capital was 50.0 million euros (48.3 million euros).
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Cash flow from operations was 2.9 million euros (7.4 million euros).
September 2024–August 2025 “2025” (comparative figures in parentheses 9/2023–8/2024):
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Revenue increased by 1.6% and was 126.6 million euros (124.7 million euros), fully organic growth. Calculated at comparable exchange rates, revenue increased by 0.8%.
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Adjusted EBITA was 4.9 million euros (6.2) and adjusted EBITA margin was 3.9% (5.0%).
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Net working capital was 50.0 million euros (48.3 million euros).
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Cash flow from operations was 1.6 million euros (-0.9 million euros).
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Earnings per share were -0.20 euros (-0.00 euros) (according to the number of shares at the end of the review period).
Guidance 2026
Consumer confidence remains weak and market uncertainty continues.
Duell expects the market environment to remain weak for the next 12 months.
Therefore, our guidance for the fiscal year 2026 is as follows:
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Duell expects organic revenue to remain at the same level as the previous year.
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Duell expects adjusted EBITA to remain at the same level as the previous year.
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At a quick glance:
-The worst fear, the need for additional capitalization, was avoided. Covenants were broken, but a waiver was obtained. Additionally, covenant terms were changed in October to better suit Duell.
-Profitability better than expected. Gross margin recovered.
-Debt higher than analysts’ expectations, explained by a larger amount of inventory accumulated due to difficult weather conditions in Q2 and Q3, and a couple of million higher trade receivables. In Q3, these trade payables and trade receivables were so favorable that indebtedness seemed “too good”. Additionally, measures were implemented in France: “** Items affecting comparability, EBITDA: France warehouse relocation costs 600,000 euros, re-
organization costs 405,000 euros.”
-Guidance subdued
-The Nordics performed much better than analysts’ expectations, and the weakness this time was in Europe (France apparently the main culprit).
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I can’t join the webcast myself, but it would be interesting to hear:
- Does Duell expect LfL profitability to weaken and why, if profitability measures are, however, even more strongly on the agenda (e.g., inventory optimization)?
- What costs affecting comparability did Q4 include (600k)?
- On what data (external/internal) is the guidance based?
- In what way were the loan terms made more favorable?
- Have the problems in France been resolved, and if not, are there clear steps towards the next
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In addition, a question for the executives: how long do we still have to wait for the promised share purchases?
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Finally, I would like to thank all members of our organization for their efforts during the fiscal year. The year was challenging, but by focusing on the identified areas for development, I am confident that we will further strengthen Duell and improve its performance in the current fiscal year.
However, I saw this in the CEO’s comments. Room was left for a positive profit warning this time.
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