7.80 is the closing price after the split to avoid misunderstandings in the market.
Evli raises Duell’s target price to 9.00 euros (previously 0.045 euros), recommendation remains at buy level
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Here are also Tommi’s comments on Duell’s split. 
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Apparently, that change in the number of shares was too much for our systems. Some content is missing from the company page, and we aim to fix it by tomorrow!
On another note. An interesting part of Pierce Group’s Q3 report was a slide that discussed the competitive landscape of retailers. Brands that sell directly to consumers are also listed as retailers. For example, Alpinestars, one of Duell’s best brands, is listed in that category, although the logo is a bit difficult to recognize among the pixels. 
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Used Car Market Picks Up – Interest Rate Cut Encourages Consumers | Kauppalehti
The same also affects Duel’s business, and with enhancements still active in Duel. The company’s 3-year return was -94, even though its size has doubled.
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What is the significance of a company’s turnover or other size metrics if the business generates a loss for the owner?
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||2024|2023|2022|2021|2020|\n|—|—|—|—|—|—|\n|Revenue*|124 652|118 832|123 991|76 756|59 432|\n|Revenue growth, percent|4,9|-4,2|61,5|29,2|6,0|\n|EBITDA|4 564|4 307|7 383|8 322|5 261|\n|EBITDA, %|3,7|3,6|6,0|10,8|8,9|\n|EBITA|3 628|3 401|6 652|7 711|4 800|\n|EBITA, %|2,9|2,9|5,4|10,0|8,1|\n|Operating profit*|842|1 041|4 904|7 282|4 129|\n|Operating profit, %|0,7|0,9|4,0|9,5|6,9|\n\nThis valuation is nuts. I would ask that question to the owners of Kempower or Wolt.\n\nWhich are so-called billion-dollar companies by valuation. This is 37 million.\n\nThat revenue matters if they can get profitability to 2020-2021 levels. Nice leverage compared to before.
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Well, how do you think Duell’s growth management has fared? Revenue has indeed grown, but profitability has collapsed. Does it make sense to pursue growth if, at the same time, less money remains below the line, both absolutely and relatively?
If we compare Duell to a peer in a somewhat similar industry, Relais, which has also grown through acquisitions, the story looks a bit different. Both the top and bottom lines have grown, and profitability has also been maintained despite the challenging market situation.
Relais’s figures below:
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Yeah, let’s talk about Relais, even in its own group. Duell certainly got greedy with acquisitions and at the same time demand collapsed, but they have been punished for it with a 93 percent drop from three years ago.
Now, in my opinion, there are signs of a good turnaround.
Of course, 18 million has also come into the company, and still the valuation is -93%.
The valuation has certainly not fallen by 93%. The share price has indeed fallen, but that’s a completely different matter. If you look at any of Duell’s valuation metrics, the decline is certainly not of that magnitude. Historically, Duell was expensive, but is it now correspondingly cheap? Pyyleva apparently thinks so, but someone else might present a differing opinion.
I myself would look at the EV/EBIT line quite carefully, for example:
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EV/EBIT is a bit of a bad figure to look at now as the turnaround has just happened/is happening.
But thanks for the counter-arguments.
Could you then explain by what valuation metric the valuation has decreased by 93%, as you claimed?
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Stock Price History
| HIGH | LOW | CHANGE PERCENTAGE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | 9,600 | 5,440 | +5.91 % |
| 1 yr | 11,040 | 5,440 | -9.45 % |
| 3 yrs | 149,823 | 5,040 | -93.48 % |
| 5 yrs | 149,823 | 5,040 | - |
| 10 yrs | 149,823 | 5,040 |
I’m just looking at these figures on Kauppalehti and Nordnet’s websites. That’s what they claim there.
Duell Oyj (DUELL) - Stock price today | Stock Exchange | Kauppalehti | Kauppalehti
Two things:
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Kempower’s market value is not a billion, but half of that. Yes, the slowdown in growth has also been reflected in its stock price. But since you started comparing, Kempower has grown ~65x from 2020 → 2024e. Duell about 2x. Do you notice a difference?
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You’re not seriously comparing a successful, years-growing platform economy software company (Wolt) to some buy-and-sell business (Duell), are you? They have nothing in common except the country where they were founded.
It’s also interesting that if the valuation is completely zero and a turnaround is just around the corner, the management team and board must have been buying hand over fist, right? Well, they haven’t; the only purchase this year is a whopping €12k investment. About half of the insiders don’t own the company at all (source).
The stock price is not the same as the company’s valuation. This has, of course, been explained several times in this thread before.
It’s worth remembering that these offerings have not been free money. In connection with them, the number of shares has increased, diluting previous holdings, and they have been made practically under duress. It’s certainly good that the company has improved its financial situation, but the fact that it had to be done soon after the IPO speaks volumes about the company’s financial expertise.
Now you’re confusing people. I didn’t say that. Instead, I wanted to point out that you are now firmly comparing apples and oranges; the companies’ growth history, industry, and profile are completely different.
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The management ownership data is interesting in itself. It should also be noted that the only insider who made a purchase this year is the interim CFO, who is no longer employed by the company.
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It’s not the same thing, no.
Duell’s IPO share price: €5.16/share
Duell’s market value after listing: approx. €131 million
After this, about 30 million euros came into the company through directed issues and the latest offering.
Well, the Qt group is selling its shares, and that sounds like a positive thing in the group, and Harvia’s management.
Yes, Duell’s management should definitely buy now.
So, how one wants to calculate the real market value decrease. The comparable value has dropped by a good 70 percent.
- Kempower’s market value is not a billion, but half of that. Yes, the slowdown in growth has also been reflected in its stock price. But since you started comparing, Kempower has grown 2020 → 2024e ~65x. Duell about 2x. Do you notice a difference? You just said that revenue doesn’t matter when making a loss. Kem was at its peak around 3 billion and has now, for good reason, decreased. I know it’s now about 500 million.
Well, I’m not infatuated, and yes, analysts have also noticed signs of a turnaround. Accumulate and Buy.
I will no longer post signs of consumer demand picking up and interest rates falling, even though they have been stated as essential matters for Duel’s outlook.
Duell’s Q1 (September-November) is already done, and its results will be available in January. The snow situation this year is weaker compared to the previous year in Sweden and northern Finland. Well, it’s probably still quite okay compared to the long-term average, and snowmobiling is only one of Duell’s product categories. Instead, last year’s Q1 was still affected by retailers’ desire to lower their inventory levels, and that effect can be assumed to have subsided. The effect could even be expected to turn positive during the current fiscal year, as the wholesaler’s inventories will be needed even more when their own have been run down.
Results for the new fiscal year are awaited with interest, which can now be approached by focusing on the actual work without the extra financing arrangements that were circulating at the beginning of the last fiscal year. Let’s see what the new management can achieve!
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Last year, snow came in October-November, which to me now seems like a very normal arrival of winter.
The decrease in interest rates, improvement in earnings, and strengthening of the balance sheet have not been reflected in any way. Perhaps tax sales are ongoing right now, who knows?
At some point, dealers will start filling their inventories. Is it now that the economic outlook has brightened slightly for 2025? It remains to be seen.
I don’t know if I’m worried. Loukko.com is probably the country’s largest Lynx/Ski-Doo dealer, and 2024 snowmobiles are being sold with significant discounts. Knowing the margins, they’re taking a hit. On the other hand, all 2025 snowmobiles are available for order; according to the website, there are none in stock. Well, maybe the production line in Rovaniemi will start up when an order comes in??
Polaris, another major brand… The importer’s website displays a large number of 2022-2024 snowmobile models, with prices discounted by over 4,300 euros at best… unused snowmobiles.
Perhaps someone smarter can explain… otherwise, the situation is really grim…