Oh boy.
It hasn’t snowed for a long time almost anywhere (and none is really forecast), which has caused my outlook on Q2 to shift from optimistic to pessimistic. Previously, I expected Duell to exceed last year’s Q2 (€1.1m) and Tommi’s forecasts (€1m) for this year’s Q2 in terms of adjusted EBITA, despite the high inventory levels left over from last season, and to catch up with the guidance. Now, the risks of missing those figures have increased due to the poor development of the snow situation. Overall, risks are rising again as the expected recovery isn’t getting any support from external conditions and is being pushed back yet again. Inventory levels, covenants, etc.
Due to the snow situation and/or other reasons, the recent registration statistics give no cause for celebration.
Only 443 snowmobiles were registered in January, which is a drop of as much as -38% compared to last January. All in all, a dismal figure.
The trend for tractors is steadier. ATVs are mainly registered as tractors.
Motorcycle registrations in January were relatively normal. Although this is the off-season, so it has very little significance for the overall picture.
It’s always possible that the reasonable snow situation in December and January, as well as good development in other countries, will mask the snow problems, allowing for a decent Q2. Otherwise, hopes for improvement will be pinned on Q3.