In my opinion, a very clear and concise strategy to achieve an average 10% revenue growth. Here, in my opinion, is a clear and illustrative picture by application area / geographically of where growth is sought:
The significance of the Haebo acquisition in the TFT market also seemed to be quite central, and to my understanding, there has been very good development there this year.
Edit: In my opinion, this illustrates quite well DT’s stock price appreciation potential, if we consider that these targets could be reached:
Revenue in 2030: 170 million, EBITA 25.5 million. EV/EBITA 20 –> enterprise value 510 million euros. This means that the current enterprise value should increase by 283 percent, or an average of 30.8% p.a. The drivers of the increase are naturally earnings growth + multiple expansion. It requires execution, but in my opinion, it is realistic to achieve.
Comments from yesterday’s CMD.
I also listened in with half an ear, thumbs up to the analysts for the questions that aimed to put more meat on the bones regarding the means to achieve the goals.
I was a bit bothered when Juha asked about next year’s revenue growth target, and Martola said it was “Challenging, but possible.” Inderes and I, on the other hand, have thought that +10% growth for next year would be almost a piece of cake after a sluggish year. The profitability target, however, I believed would still be challenging next year, which the management also confirmed.
I personally believe that DT now wants to surprise the market positively and therefore does not want to give too optimistic a view to the market. The quote below from Juha’s comments describes quite well the external disruptive factors that DT has experienced in recent years:
“The period was full of external shocks such as the coronavirus pandemic, supply chain disruptions, China’s health sector reform, and US customs policy. In addition, problematic for DT was the dismal development of China’s security market; the market has still not recovered to pre-corona levels. This was a very significant market segment for DT. Despite everything, DT’s development during the period was weak, but on the positive side, the company entered the TFT market through the Haobo acquisition, from which fruits can be reaped during this strategy period. Negative factors for the current year also include the fact that the Indian government froze significant security investments.”
As CEO Martola said in the Q3 interview, this year everything has been somewhat out of alignment. While I don’t like the fact that the company is susceptible to various market changes, I also optimistically think that when the market recovers (which it is already doing, reflected in the guidance), DT’s business will receive significant tailwinds from the market. In addition, in a difficult market, TFT business (Haobo) has been ramped up, which is now “ready” as growth acceleration begins. It was also noticeable from the presentation that DT does have demand, as there was talk of increasing inventory levels and how the double-digit growth of Q1 is aimed to continue in other quarters as well. As I understand it, the company usually provides guidance a couple of quarters ahead or at least comments on market outlook verbally.
Well, that’s precisely why those words were quite a disappointment, as this year has presented many different challenges, and yet achieving +10% for next year is, in Martola’s opinion, challenging.
I understand your point. Of course, one would gladly hear, for example, that “we will definitely grow by 10% or more next year, that’s clear.” As I stated above, I believe that management prefers to surprise positively, because recent years have gone poorly. Martola said that it is challenging, but possible. In any case, Martola’s open and clear communication is more than welcome after recent disappointments. But let’s keep following Most importantly, management has now given a very clear path for where and from which areas growth will be sought. Now it’s practically ready, just waiting to be executed, so one can perform
How does this comment align with Martola’s previous speeches about the future?
Has he historically painted too rosy or too bleak a picture of revenue/profit? Naturally, one must exclude surprising macro events for which the company could not have had foresight when the comment was made.
I have only recently become acquainted with the company, and I like Martola’s engineering-like delivery. It doesn’t feel like the stock price is being tried to be pumped to the sky by promising too much; instead, things are proceeding according to realities. However, the company’s goals, for example, regarding revenue growth versus the market, indicate that there is plenty of ambition.
Regarding Qt, I divested at one point when I lost faith in Varelius’s speeches. Perhaps that’s also why Martola’s delivery pleases my ear at the moment.
Could @Juha_Kinnunen elaborate a bit on his thoughts, for example, how confident you are that DT will grow by double-digit percentages in 2026 and achieve an EBITA level of approximately 12%? Or what would have to go wrong for these not to be achieved? The valuation risk at these levels is quite small, however. As I understand it, we are currently in a situation where the bar for positive surprises has been set relatively low for the company and the stock. However, we are going with a Buy recommendation, so I assume you are quite confident about DT’s next year
Excerpts from Smith’s FY1Q2026 “trading update”.
Smiths Detection’s latest 3Q2025 was +10.6%
Smiths continues to progress both the parallel sale and demerger processes for Smiths Detection as we execute our plan to focus Smiths as a high-performance industrial engineering company.
• Smiths Detection delivered double digit organic revenue growth, continuing the positive
momentum from FY2025. Demand for our leading detection products translates into a strong order book, and continued high levels of installation activity of our next generation detection technology.
The recent 18.11.2025 CMD presentation is available for download from the link below
With the growth history below, the stock market probably expects growth evidence,
on the other hand, the share price has already factored things in,
and there is no net debt – and cash flow further contributes to the
It’s a good sign that even the management is buying! Of course, the amounts aren’t anything huge, but then again, you can’t really buy massive sums of such a low-volume stock from the market.
Yep, Hannu, however, owns 2.95% of the company and was already the largest individual owner, after which the threshold for new purchases is likely high.
He has a lot of skin in the game. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will show in the end result, but it’s a small positive signal for me at least.
· Highly attractive valuation: the enterprise value of £2.0bn represents a multiple of 16.3x headline operating profit of £122m and 12.5x headline EBITDA of £160m for the financial year ending 31 July 2025.
About Smiths Detection
Smiths Detection is a global leader in threat detection and security screening technologies for aviation, ports and borders, urban security, and defence segments. Its mission is to help make the world a safer place through advanced detection solutions that safeguard people, infrastructure, and society. In the financial year ended 31 July 2025, Smiths Detection generated revenue of £963 million and headline operating profit of £122 million. As at 31 July 2025, Smiths Detection had total assets of £1,650 million.
So, that’s done, probably a good thing for the overall picture. The valuation seems relatively moderate: with the realized result, EV/EBIT 16.3x and EV/EBITDA 12.5x. Not any astounding multiples, but it’s hard to say more precisely without a stronger view on the company’s earnings growth outlook. But let’s just say that in a competitive situation, one might have expected higher multiples - and I guess bids were requested from all relevant parties.
For DT, it’s probably good that the matter is progressing and everyday life is approaching. CVC is hardly an ideal buyer compared to an industrial buyer, but it probably doesn’t have much significance. At least they didn’t mention any major plans in the industry, but who knows.
I can only find two mentions of Smiths in this thread using the search function. Is Smiths an OEM customer of Deete?
If so, one could assume Smiths will invest even more in growth with the new owner, thus benefiting Deete as well.
What kind of pricing power does Deete have with such a customer? Smiths is probably also trying to improve its margins by negotiating better terms for itself (when the contract expires),
Our search function seems to be working poorly; I believe it has been mentioned much more often historically. But the assumption has been that Smiths is a significant customer of DT. There’s no factual basis for this, as it’s not a public reference. However, on CMD’s slides, DT stated that 3/4 of the major players in Security CT are the company’s customers, so the probabilities likely support this assumption.
In principle, yes, but since the plan is unknown, it’s impossible to estimate the outcome.
Yes, I believe the pricing power is reasonably good, although there’s always a certain amount of pressure, and price is also a function of volumes. However, DT, in my understanding, faces significantly greater pressure with Medical giants, where volumes are an order of magnitude larger, and there’s more competition. I wouldn’t expect better terms; margins will more likely come from renewable products and, on the other hand, from improving our own cost-effectiveness. This is a business subject to price erosion, but the margin level has been maintained quite well.
Most importantly, management has now given a very clear path for where and from which areas growth will be sought. Now it’s practically ready, just waiting to be executed, so one can perform 
