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Key downside risks: Geopolitical risks related to China and the US, FX risks, increased competition, price pressure, M&A risks, the global security outlook, the global economic outlook, advances in imaging technology, quality risks and the availability of components.
Key upside risks: A fast recovery in aviation security investments, addressable market expansion and new growth opportunities, market share gains, margin recovery, China economic stimulus measures and a public takeover.
Estimate and valuation changes Looking at recent developments and considering company-specific measures taken, we estimate a 50% y/y EBIT recovery in 2026 after the 2025 slump, with further but less pronounced improvements in 2027 (10% y/y). Our base case, driven by 3% market growth, TFT panel expansion and Security investments, points to respective 2025-31 sales and EBIT CAGRs of 4.7% and 14.2% (an average margin of 11.9%), while price pressure in China is likely to limit further upside. Based on our upside/downside scenario analyses, we find slightly positive risk/reward, but we reiterate Hold with an unchanged DCF- and multiples-based fair value of EUR 11.7. To find significant upside, one would need to model ~7% medium-term annual growth, or a ~15% discount to peers, which we find difficult to justify.