The most essential thing was missing from that news, namely that a third high NA EUV device was already shipped for installation in the fourth quarter.
CEO statement and outlook
"Our fourth-quarter was a record in terms of revenue, with total net sales coming in at €9.3 billion, and a gross margin of 51.7%, both above our guidance. This was primarily driven by additional upgrades. We also recognized revenue on two High NA EUV systems. We shipped a third High NA EUV system to a customer in the fourth quarter.”
The same information has been on Mitsui’s website since last May, meaning the factory is likely to be ready in December and will have an annual capacity of 5000 (however, reaching this will take time, as it’s a completely new venture for them and refining the process takes time).
While examining shareholder lists, I noticed Vesa Puttonen’s Enabla Oy had appeared on Canatu’s ownership list during January. I don’t personally understand much about this business, but the appearance of more experienced investors on the lists certainly doesn’t diminish my own interest in the company. I have always valued Vesa’s thoughts on investing, so based on this alone, I should try to delve into Canatu a bit more closely.
Here’s the most important part of the announcement so you don’t have to click. “A total of 343,519 new A-series shares of Canatu Oyj (”the Company ”) have been subscribed for with investor warrants during the first subscription window for investor warrants between October 17, 2024, and December 31, 2024.”
The investor warrant’s quotation today (Feb 10) was 3.30 euros. If it is sold, the gross profit would be 2.51 euros. This implies a 20% acquisition cost assumption and 30% tax.
If I acquire a new share with this warrant at a price of 11.50 euros, the selling price of the share should be 15.1 euros to achieve the same return. Is the expected increase in value really this much?
Or what’s wrong with my logic?
Veli
There is always time value in the price of a warrant. In Canatu’s case, until autumn 2029. That’s why its price doesn’t go hand in hand with the stock. You can either try to buy 1000 shares at 12.50 or 1000 warrants at 3.30, and in the latter scenario, you’ll have 9200 euros left for other investments. That 9200 will likely yield much more than the 3300 you paid for warrants by 2029.
It is possible to subscribe for Class A shares with investor warrants during the subscription windows. There are four subscription windows per year: January 1 – March 31, April 1 – June 30, July 1 – September 30, and October 1 – December 31.
These Simply Wall Street lists and articles are typically AI-based, and fair values are automatically generated with some standard template. However, their starting point seems to be analysts’ consensus expectations. I still wouldn’t give any weight to that figure alone unless I could see the underlying assumptions of the calculation. Of course, even in the extensive report I compiled, there’s an optimistic scenario where Canatu’s value could be well over 20e per share
Canatu CEO Kokkonen has also been at the event mentioned in the news this weekend/early this week. (SPIE Advanced Litography West Conference, San Jose, 23.-25.2.2025)
Unfortunately, I won’t be able to attend this event this time, but it should be noted that this is one of the most significant conferences for lithography. It’s great to see Canatu noted at such an event, which is attended by the most important lithography equipment manufacturers in the semiconductor industry. Usually, after the conference, some information snippets can be found by Googling, so I’ll stay tuned to see if anything of interest to us emerges after the event.
When Canatu produces carbon nanotubes using the FC-CVD method, which can yield, for example, long nanotubes, how does this differ from others who also use the FC-CVD method and regulate gas flow, pressure, floating catalyst size, and temperature?
At least with Canatu’s patented manufacturing style, the structure of carbon nanotubes can be modified in the desired direction during the process, allowing desired properties to be created in them. This way, highly advanced and high-quality carbon nanotubes can be created for very high-end end-applications. Canatu’s competitors, on the other hand, produce carbon nanotubes using a wet dispersion method, which clearly differs from Canatu’s manufacturing style. This has been discussed, for example, in the listing prospectus and our comprehensive report.
From memory, I recall Canatu’s CTO saying at the Capital Markets Day that the company’s first good 10 years were spent on truly understanding what happens in the reactor when carbon nanotubes are made using the dry deposition method. Understanding this ultimately opened up opportunities to start controlling the properties of carbon nanotubes and gradually, through this, unlock current commercial opportunities.
Could you also clarify which other companies you are referring to with this? If you have spotted any potential competitors, it would also be nice to hear about them.
For the past ten years, it has often been said, “Floating catalyst chemical vapor deposition (FCCVD) is commonly considered as one of the most attractive processes for the production of carbon nanotubes (CNTs)”.
It is of great interest to many because it has important, even revolutionary, potential.
