What are the thoughts of the forum members on the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the global economy and potentially on the Helsinki Stock Exchange? I’m shamefully unaware of this myself, and it would be nice to hear your own speculations.
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A no-deal is unlikely unless on December 30, 2020, the EU or GB stumbles on some bureaucratic point, so that by accident the deadline of December 31, 2020, passes and we wake up in 2021 to find that no extension deadline has been made (and since Corona-Johnson already said he wouldn’t accept any extension to negotiations). But how would such an improbable stumble affect the global economy, perhaps positively?
If this British law passes, the world will get a truly “reliable” trading partner in them. 
Life to this thread too, the post-Covid-19 era will come too..
Let’s bump this up, it’s becoming more relevant again. Will there be a no-deal? What are the effects for those dependent on British trade? How will the pound react?
There has been quite a bit of media coverage about the practical problems caused by Brexit, not only in online commerce, but also, especially, for SMEs trading between the EU and the UK. The British financial sector has also taken quite a hit, and even large industrial companies are suffering from supply chain problems. Could, for example, @Moops tell us what the mood and views are currently on the effects of Brexit on the ground?
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@jps thanks for asking. I’ll try to shed some light on this from my narrow perspective. I’ve been so isolated for a month that I can’t even offer everyday observations because there simply aren’t any! Perhaps this speaks for itself, assuming I represent the average Joe. I only go out once a day for a walk in my wellington boots on muddy paths. I last used my credit card on January 4th, the day before the full lockdown restrictions. When groceries are ordered online, paid from the family account, and delivered to the doorstep, there’s no need to drive, and with hairdressers, cafes, and beauty salons closed, there’s simply no need for money.
I believe the downsides of Brexit are still largely hidden from the average consumer because society is shut down. If there wasn’t a pandemic, the effects of Brexit would be more noticeable. Now, unpleasant surprises have apparently affected those who ordered products from mainland Europe.
The export industry has, of course, already encountered these practical downsides. The problems are well described in those two articles.
Before Christmas, there was talk of London becoming Singapore-on-Thames, a new container shipping hub for Europe. This announcement hasn’t been heard for a while. Either it wasn’t a rational idea, or it’s been buried under the pandemic fight.
This is a very consumption-driven society. There might be lockdown fatigue, but I see the near future as quite bleak for the consumer sector. One winner will be domestic tourism as soon as travel restrictions are lifted. Amazon, delivery services, etc., will also strengthen further. Shops without an e-commerce platform are unlikely to survive.
One issue that hasn’t been raised is the potential future distress of landlords. During the lockdown, it has been difficult to evict tenants who can’t/won’t pay rent, but loans for investment properties acquired with borrowed money must be paid on time. In addition, tax deductions for rental properties will be removed in the coming tax year (this has been a four-year process). I also think that many foreign youths, especially from London, who lived in flatshares, have left. So it might be challenging to find new tenants for these properties. We might be facing some kind of redistribution of investment properties.
The muscles of Brexit supporters grew from the EU and UK vaccine dispute. The freedom to negotiate agreements independently showed its advantages and is certainly shaping public opinion in a pro-Brexit direction.
Negotiations have now begun to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership group.
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