Bitcoin - Great Opportunities

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Nordnet’s Trader’s Club has another Bitcoin episode.

I wrote on X that one really has to tip their hat to Jukka Lepikko’s efforts regarding Bitcoin. According to his own words, he has spent a lot of time studying it, and it shows. A big change in the level of expertise during this 1-2 year period. He can analyze Bitcoin precisely from an investor’s perspective, which is most important for this target audience.

In Finland, there are still only a handful of popular/followed “TradFi” types who talk about Bitcoin (or cryptos) publicly and understand something about the topic. I am personally happy that Trader’s Club has become a channel that now increasingly shares factual and dispassionate analysis of Bitcoin

Mistä parasta tuottoa? | Traders’ Club 264

[Muikkunen]

Bitcoin’s biggest risk in my opinion, i.e., political risk, has diminished significantly during 2025, as the current US administration contributes to Bitcoin’s adoption as a state and corporate-level monetary system. This otherwise crazy administration seems to realize itself that an alternative is needed for the doomed dollar if they want to maintain their superpower status.

At the same time, however, we have risen approximately 30% from April’s lows and are just about at ATH levels. My view is that it has risen “correctly”. For years I have followed Bitcoin from the sidelines, but in April I started a monthly savings program; the risk-reward ratio in Bitcoin is excellent in my opinion for a +5 year investment horizon.

Viewing recommendation for the latest Traders’ Club episode 264 where Jukka shared his view on Bitcoin, which I also subscribe to.

Where to set Bitcoin’s price ceiling if even a fraction of the money from other assets starts flowing into Bitcoin?

[tebiz]

Quote
Where to set Bitcoin’s price ceiling if even a fraction of the money from other assets starts flowing into Bitcoin?

With the current value of money at about $900T, there is practically no upper limit, because the value of all these asset classes is currently defined in dollars. In the distant future, these will be revalued in Bitcoins. This is, of course, if Bitcoin becomes the world’s new monetary system.

[Antti_Hyppanen]

If Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset, i.e., so-called digital gold, which is slowly happening right now, the first logical step would be to reach the market capitalization of analog gold. This would occur at a ballpark Bitcoin price of a million dollars – depending a bit on how much the market capitalization of gold rises before that.

Of course, this is just a comparison often made by BTC fans, and gold’s market capitalization is just an arbitrary number. However, it is a kind of ballpark metric and somewhat realistic, because gold as an asset (like Bitcoin) is small in the scale of the entire investment world.

In my opinion, Bitcoin’s fundamentals have never been as good in this regard as they are now. This year, almost every week brings announcements of a new company buying Bitcoin for its balance sheet. A major trigger was the United States becoming a Bitcoin-friendly country with Trump’s election victory.

I have followed Bitcoin for 8 years myself. Until recent years, a regulatory threat loomed in the back of many investors’ minds. The EU tried to ban PoW a couple of years ago in a couple of votes, and in the United States, there was a full-scale war against crypto just a year ago, etc. Now it’s a completely different story. Bitcoin has never been such a “safe” investment and as widely accepted as it is now.

Yesterday, the first BTC company also entered the Swedish stock exchange:

We’ve acquired 4.39 BTC — officially becoming Sweden’s first publicly listed Bitcoin Treasury company.

This marks the beginning of a long-term strategy to align our balance sheet with the values of sovereignty, resilience, and digital-first innovation.

https://x.com/H100Group/status/1925506932980228557

Unfortunately, such news is just not coming from Finland.

[Jug]

Jesse Myers had updated that image this year. He estimated the value of all global assets (visible in that image) to be approximately 1000 trillion, which is just over 10% more than what is shown in that unupdated image.

Over the last 30 years, the global money supply (M2) has grown by approximately 5-6% annually, and there’s no end in sight, because indebted nations practically need the help of central banks in the form of money printing, or the house of cards will collapse. The US national debt (orange bars) is growing continuously:

Many other countries likely have the same problem, and an aging population certainly doesn’t make things easier.

Money is constantly being printed, which continuously drives up the prices of assets (especially Bitcoin, due to its limited supply).



The coming weeks, in particular, look good for Bitcoin investors, provided that Bitcoin continues to follow money supply movements with approximately a 3-month delay.

In addition to the growth in money supply, awareness of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is constantly increasing.

And that’s not all. Bitcoin ETFs have been highly sought after, and their growth can also be expected to continue with high probability.

Companies, states, and other large entities have also been interested in accumulating Bitcoins, and there’s no end in sight.

The most well-known company accumulating Bitcoins is Microstrategy, now simply Strategy, which already owns over 576,000 Bitcoins, or approximately 3% of all mined Bitcoins. Strategy buys more Bitcoins almost weekly.

However, Strategy is not the only company accumulating Bitcoins, as especially recently, these “Bitcoin treasury companies” have started appearing on the scene, and competition for the remaining Bitcoins will intensify.

Considering all these figures and trends, it’s hard not to believe in the rise of Bitcoin’s price, at least in the coming years, if not over a longer period.

It’s a shame that many will miss this train. If one reads the mainstream media (or even Kauppalehti), it’s no wonder. Here’s a good article on why many intelligent and successful people don’t believe in / don’t want to believe in Bitcoin: https://www.citadel21.com/why-the-yuppie-elite-dismiss-bitcoin

[Sijoittaja-alokas]

Here is @Jukka_Lepikko’s tweet about Bitcoin and how different parties have been buying it

https://x.com/JukkaLepikko/status/1926560550382628968

[Antti_Hyppanen]

BTC investors’ most followed chart, updated.
Source: https://x.com/BittelJulien/status/1927329101108429131

It will be interesting to see what happens now during the summer months, which have historically been weak for Bitcoin. “Sell in May and go away” and so on.

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) plans to create a $2.5 billion Bitcoin reserve! Another big buyer on the market again. I don’t know how much more “bullish” Bitcoin fundamentals could be, these BTC reserve news items are now coming almost once a week from a different company every time.

Official press release: Trump Media Announces Approximately $2.5 Billion Bitcoin

[Antti_Hyppanen]

Pakistan will become the third state to establish an official Bitcoin reserve. El Salvador was the first, and the United States became the second.

Pakistan to Launch Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Says Crypto Minister - Decrypt

Pakistan also plans to invest 2000 MW of energy into Bitcoin mining and AI data centers.

[Verneri_Pulkkinen]

Jacob King’s proper rant about Bitcoin as an ‘illusion’. I can’t assess accurately, but the conclusions seem a bit dramatic. On the other hand, the criticism that there’s a lot of hype and image creation in Bitcoin and crypto is undoubtedly quite valid. However, that doesn’t negate the fact that so-called fiat currencies systematically and continuously weaken, and there’s genuine demand for such digital currencies as a hedge against this.

Remaining messages:

Summary

[Verneri_Pulkkinen]

Saylor’s Strategy is constantly gaining more imitators. It will be interesting to see how they intend to differentiate themselves from each other, other than who ultimately has the most leverage. This is similar to if companies on the domestic stock market started buying, for example, Harvia heaters into their balance sheets, talking about a “Harvia reserve”. Perhaps the first stocks to get the engine running will gain popularity, but everyone’s uniqueness will disappear if every company has its own “Harvia reserve” on its balance sheet.

Michael Saylor’s bitcoin imitators are multiplying, from Trump to GameStop

[Allupalluvaan]

Where is this Harvia reserve traded, and how many sauna heaters will eventually enter circulation until the very last one is bundled?

[WaveOfJuuta]

While things are what they are, some context is needed in the sense that Jacob King is comparable to Janus Putkonen.

[Sijoittaja-alokas]

Coinmotion’s Sales Director Aki Kola was interviewed by Verneri Pulkkinen. More to come…

Onko Bitcoin pelkästään uskon asia? Haastattelussa Coinmotionin myyntijohtaja...

Topics:

00:00 Introduction
00:41 Aki Kola
01:27 Crypto broker
02:39 Regulation in the industry
03:41 Wide selection of different cryptocurrencies
05:01 Elevator pitch about Bitcoin
09:26 Bitcoin’s transparency
11:42 What Bitcoin’s value is based on
18:09 Development of regulation
21:56 Discussion about crypto often explosive or even fanatical
26:50 When will Coinmotion become a Bitcoin treasury company
28:11 Bitcoin treasury companies globally

[Verneri_Pulkkinen]

Thanks for sharing! I’m happy to receive feedback on these sets (as well as any other material I create) regarding what people like. We’ll try to make a compromise that caters to everyone, both beginners and those who are more familiar with cryptocurrencies.

[Casteliero]

@Verneri_Pulkkinen

Thanks for sharing! I’m happy to receive feedback on these sets (as well as any other material I produce), to see what people like. We’re trying to create a compromise that caters to both beginners and those who are more familiar with crypto.

It’s good that these are being made and that crypto is presented in a somewhat positive light compared to what the mainstream media pushes out about crypto, which is mostly still negative. But for beginners, I think things should be explained even more simply and clearly. If I had listened to that discussion as a beginner, neither the technology nor Bitcoin would have convinced me. It still felt a bit like a missed opportunity, but perhaps these things will open up more in the next episodes.

[DecentTension]

Bitcoin has already reached its logarithmic peak.

Reasons for continuous user loss and logarithmic decline in the future.

1. Bitcoin transactions are irreversible.

2. It is impossible to recover a lost Bitcoin wallet, as Bitcoins are not controlled by any centralized entity.

3. Risks for service providers. For example, the service provider Mt.Gox went bankrupt, revealing fraudulent misuse of deposited Bitcoins. Numerous users who deposited Bitcoins into the service lost their deposits.

4. External risks. An intruder or malware gaining access to a computer can easily steal Bitcoins.

5. Using it as an actual payment method is difficult because one transaction, depending on the congestion of the Bitcoin network, can cost up to tens of euros. Additionally, the transaction can take several hours to complete.

6. Bitcoin’s price is highly volatile, and its value fluctuates greatly.

7. An almost infinitely large Bitcoin scam due to the world’s largest economy, which will end at the latest when the president changes.

8. Bitcoin does not solve any problems but brings many, as happened in El Salvador, meaning every alleged benefit was actually a problem.

[Moogle]

Thanks for the article. I think objective discussion about cryptocurrencies is very welcome!

First, a disclaimer: I am also a shareholder in Coinmotion with a small stake, so I have a slight personal interest. It should also be noted that Coinmotion is certainly not an objective party, but Verneri’s way of bringing up both bullish and bearish questions from deeper than the surface is welcome.

As stated in the article, it is difficult to find a balanced opinion or analysis of Bitcoin. “Analysis” mainly comes from parties who benefit from Bitcoin’s success (sales, brokerage, custody, etc.) or suffer from it (sectors living off money transfers/currencies or parties who have preached Bitcoin’s demise for a decade and whose reputation will suffer if they start objectively updating their analysis). The analysis is, of course, presented as objective and fact-based in all cases; it just so happens that only positive or negative angles have been found. That’s why I find this kind of discussion welcome.

It is entirely possible that Bitcoin will fail. However, it is also difficult to open any (English-language) financial news without being exposed to articles about Bitcoin’s movements, just as with currencies, gold, or stocks.

In Finland, the discussion is mainly based on image advertising of the “cryptos melting” type from financial giants. Perhaps history has something to do with the fact that expertise or know-how has not really grown in these institutions – in some, one couldn’t even work:

Nordea forbids employees from investing in bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies | Yle

I don’t know what the current practice is, but experts must be picked from a somewhat thinner recruitment pool today if the practice is still in effect.

Like it or not, quite many people already have indirect exposure to cryptocurrencies:

Coinbase joining S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial

And more may be coming:

MicroStrategy Could Merit S&P 500 Inclusion If It Adopts New Accounting Rules: Benchmark

Although S&P 500 Indices and ETFs are gladly sold by many parties, it’s questionable whether they are always fully aware of what they contain – in my opinion, there should be credible expertise for even a basic analysis of crypto movements.

Anyway, this turned out a bit unnecessarily bullish even though I strongly believe that this is also a kind of probability lottery. Both extreme scenarios (Bitcoin is the dominant medium of exchange in the future or its value collapses to zero) are, in my opinion, possible; the magnitude of probability just varies depending on whom you ask. Of course, in this, as in all other probability calculations, instead of the extremes, smart money bets that we will land somewhere in between the extremes.

Thanks @Verneri_Pulkkinen for the welcome discussion opener. Have a nice weekend everyone!

[Voimakyykky]

It’s a bit embarrassing to admit, having speculated through several cycles, that I only recently understood Bitcoin’s true potential after listening to this old podcast:

The religious fervor-like lamentation of Bitcoin maximalists about BTC’s specialness has previously gone a bit over my head too. “Digital gold” has also traded in a suspiciously strong correlation with hype-prone tech stocks, and certainly not, for example, with actual gold.

But nevertheless… In the current system, the value of money halves approximately every twenty years. Every “normal” person working for a salary is thus forced to be their own personal Wealth Manager and investment advisor on the side if they want to achieve any kind of financial comfort by saving wealth, which is an utterly absurd situation.

Once one moderately understands the technology, one realizes that Bitcoin technically solves this systemic problem, at least in theory. What happens in the real world is, of course, impossible to predict, but an increasing number of even serious financial industry players have started adopting Bitcoin, and regulatory tectonic plates have shifted significantly in a positive direction recently.

A few percent allocation to Bitcoin (or Shitcoins if you like to gamble) offers, in my opinion, a very asymmetric risk/reward profile. I don’t believe that the entire financial system will run on Bitcoin, or necessarily that Bitcoin itself would be used for daily purchases. But merely the potential to act as a store of value for the Digital Age (like real estate, gold, and other asset classes) provides opportunities for significant upside even from these levels. We’ll see how it goes.

[CitizenJ]

@Voimakyykky

In the current system, the value of money halves every couple of decades. Every “normal” person working for a salary is thus forced to be their own personal Wealth Manager and investment advisor part-time if they want to achieve any kind of financial comfort by saving wealth, which is an utterly absurd situation.

In my opinion, that’s how it should be. Money should be spent or invested. A small amount of inflation is targeted for a reason. It’s not beneficial for the economy, and thus for people, if money were to retain its value by being stuffed under a mattress.

@Voimakyykky

But merely the potential to act as a store of value in the Digital Age (like real estate, gold, and other asset classes) offers opportunities for significant upside even from these levels. We’ll see what happens.

Wouldn’t this specifically predict rather weak development? Interest in Bitcoin would wane significantly if returns remained at gold’s level in the long run. Especially if the correlation with the stock market remains this high.

In fact, I don’t believe interest would be sustained, even if returns started to fall short of stocks. This seems to be a rather risky and volatile asset compared to gold, bonds, or even stocks, so a significant risk premium must be obtained from it.

I personally see Bitcoin more as a digital collectible/speculative asset with growing demand but very limited supply.

A bit like investing in a rare vintage whisky bottle whose demand one believes will grow.

Icon 100 Index | Rare Whisky 101