I don’t think there is data on that yet, as the electric car “boom” is still such a recent phenomenon. There are plenty of 3-year-old cars available, but hardly any 6-year-olds. For example, on Nettiauto, electric cars from model year 2019: 235 units, and from model year 2022: 1818 units. So the supply of six-year-olds will multiply over the next three years; that’s when we’ll start getting better data on price trends.
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Yep, we’ll see. I don’t think an investor can really make money there, even if they guess the depreciation correctly.
Personally, I bet that these so-called 1st gen electric cars will drop in value quickly—basically the ones with shortcomings, i.e., lacking battery thermal management and other haptic nonsense. Additionally, I’m purely speculating that electric car buyers are on average younger, which means they are also aware of the flaws in 1st gen products and know how to research the technology—meaning they avoid them unless they can get them cheap. On the other hand, I don’t expect the price of something like a Tesla Model Y Juniper or a new iX3 or CLA to drop in any extraordinary way, as we’re apparently already at a level that is good.
An investor is mainly interested in whether one can cash in on this, but I can’t think of how.
Furthermore, electric cars face negative risks in technological development regarding price drops, which I suspect are bigger risks than the political climate risk aimed at internal combustion engines. By this, I mean that some functional new battery technology (solid state), once scaled, will drop the value of old cars even faster IF future electric cars using it are sold, say even in 6 years, at the same starting prices as today’s models.
But it’s fun to follow the development. Hopefully prices drop; it’s to the consumer’s advantage. The less money goes into motoring, the more is left for consumption and investing.
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Example of real-world depreciation:
Polestar 2, model year 2023, with top-tier equipment and the largest battery. Depreciation for the first 17 months was approx. €1,300/month. At this point, I bought the car, and for the next 17 months, the depreciation during my ownership was approx. €680/month (it was clearly worth buying slightly used). The timeframe is a bit odd, but it happened to be the point where I have owned the car for as long as it was old when I bought it. I have been diligently following the depreciation on Nettiauto, and in my estimate, I use the value of the cheapest equivalent on Nettiauto minus a realistic negotiation margin—the amount it could actually be sold for to a private buyer.
In practice, the car’s depreciation and expenses correspond to the costs of a similar internal combustion engine car. Electricity is cheap to drive on (25,000 km/year), but at this mileage, the depreciation offsets the low running costs.
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It’s a hell of a surprise to everyone that not everyone thinks about what’s cheapest to drive 
and practices the maximization of Finnish misery with a “million-euro” portfolio; sorry, you stingy cheapskates.
Drive whatever you’ve calculated to be the cheapest, but don’t clog up even this forum hundreds of times with the same messages… thanks.
Driving a diesel, for now…
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Good to know. Someone always remembers to remind us every now and then.
Still, the topic of the thread relates to how a car is a brake on building wealth. It’s not just about wealth accumulation; in this “promised land” of heavy taxation and high costs, a car is the largest expense for many people after housing.
For the average Joe, there is always an opportunity cost. Whether you want to put your money into driving or something else important is a valid topic for discussion.
It looks like there are already nearly four thousand posts here. Inevitably, we end up going through the same things many times 
Put a new battery in the better half’s car, and it looks like a bushing has failed in the back. It’ll only cost a few hundred, so it doesn’t really move the needle much.
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I took an Audi Q4 e-tron for a test drive since my sister had bought one, and its price had at least halved in two years. Purchased now in late summer, it’s a 2023 model and the price was around 32k; as I understand it, this car cost about double when new. It was even a rear-wheel drive model—I don’t think there are many rear-wheel drive Audis. Her previous model was a Diesel Volvo V60.
Having driven both, one can only conclude that the world has changed quite a bit. The Volvo feels like driving a tractor, but then again, the Audi is like a computer game. I really had to remind myself that it is actually a car. It felt completely numb, which annoyed me the most—both the steering and in general. It’s very quiet, of course, and quite decent with good seats, for example, but strangely invisible. It blends completely into the crowd; I even managed to walk right past it, even though I was expecting to see the car.
But if we’re talking about cars being an obstacle to building wealth, I think it’s senseless to buy an electric car new. If you have the patience to wait 2 years, you can get the car for -50% and put that money into investments instead.
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As far as I understand, the 2023 model doesn’t have battery preheating for fast charging.
A 2023 model year car can be 3 years old, not 2 years as you said. Edit: I noticed you wrote that the purchase was in late summer.
The basic warranty on the car has expired.
The price for a new one now starts from 53,000 euros, and you can get all-wheel drive for the same price. With winter tires included and some haggling, the price could be 54,000€. This 32k is not -50%.
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In 2023, the starting price was 56k€. Similarly, the price could be, say, 70k€ if we start speculating on what it could have cost. Let’s tick all the optional extras and winter tires at list prices, and cover the whole car in leather.
The original message’s remark of “about double” isn’t terribly far off. For a price of 32k€, at least on autotalli.com, you don’t get the most bare-bones model; instead, they have at least some extras.
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The original post says “at least halved”, meaning at least -50%, which is different from “about half”. Edit: Later in the post, “about half” is mentioned.
That truly hasn’t made any sense before. The depreciation has been steeper than ever before with a new internal combustion engine (ICE) car. An equally irrational choice is plug-in hybrids, where you constantly have to fear a situation where no car dealership will accept them as a trade-in and a replacement battery costs €20,000.
The discussion on depreciation is an important topic. Most people here are also middle-income, and they don’t have such a pile of cash available that it would be sensible to waste it on a car’s heavy depreciation.
The most sensible choice for many would be some low-mileage old Toyota, e.g., a Prius that will run until the end of the world. Practically nothing ever breaks, it has low fuel consumption, there’s plenty of space, and you can still easily sell the car at 20 years old with high mileage for around €4,000.
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That depends entirely on the brand; a new original battery pack for a Kia Hybrid, including all accessories (e.g., includes the 12V battery as well), is €5,000, and just the cells are €3,000. A tested used one in good condition is €500–€800 depending on condition, and the battery pack replacement work including programming takes 1.5 hours. The battery pack is located under the back seat as a compact unit designed to be easily replaceable; it is also protected from impacts and moisture. However, according to reports, not a single one has had to be replaced because they last very well, 200,000 km and more. Toyota is obviously the same story, proven to last 250,000 km+.
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Traditionally, percentage-based depreciation has slowed down within a few years as a car ages, but we don’t yet know for sure if this will also be the case for electric vehicles?
Even though your sample was from a short period, it is reasonably safe to assume more generally that even if the previously noted slowdown in depreciation no longer applied for some reason, the buyer of a used car saves money even with linear depreciation, because the same percentage of depreciation and financing costs are applied to the cheaper purchase price of the used vehicle.
ICE car prices have also halved in a couple of years, at least as far back as the last decade. Over the last 15 years, I’ve bought several two-year-old diesels for about half the price of a new one. With Finnish plates, at half the Finnish price. For tax-free EVs, the Central European price level is more clearly reflected for the Finnish buyer.
The Prius you mentioned, by the way, is one of those cars that distort the depreciation trends that economists imagine follow some specific formula. Once the novelty fades, the price development of many popular and functional cars stalls almost completely for years in situations where there is still plenty of utility value left. There is no silver bullet for this either; the true price development of each car model only becomes clear by tracking the VIN type codes.
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This wisdom applies regardless of the powertrain. Before my current cheap interim car, I bought the one before it as a two-year-old certified pre-owned (factory warranty trade-in). The car was 30 months old with a documented mileage of 77,000 km. The price of a new similar model would have been over €75,000. I was also considering an offer for ordering a new one with my “minimum specifications” for €67,000, to which the Wife said, “go ahead and order it then if you need one like that, but if you’re buying such an expensive car, add a couple of thousand more to get a good color.” However, I didn’t order the new one and bought that used one for €36,500 instead. The rest of the money reserved for the car was put into savings, knowing that car acquisition wouldn’t need financing for the next few years.
I don’t know where that 220 CDI, which exceeded its budgeted 8-year lifespan by a couple of years, is wandering now, but its saved other half turned into a six-figure sum this winter with the realized portfolio returns. Soon might be a good time to buy a year-before-last model warranty trade-in at half the price of a new one?
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There are still many technological leaps ahead in electric mobility and driving in general, which will make outdated solutions look like museum pieces and cause their prices to hit rock bottom
Risk management through leasing, or an old internal combustion engine, doesn’t feel like a bad option right now.
Perhaps the car as an “investment” is changing from being known as poor to being extremely risky and even a bit worse than before.
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Fun speculation. I suspect this new technology is still quite far off, even if the rumors are true. New fancy tech always costs a lot at first, which provides an exit opportunity for those who want to get rid of their old EVs in time. I always like to go against the clear trend, so maybe now could be a good time to buy lithium ”trash”…
Edit: I’ll be worried when new technology causes the prices of new cars to drop. For example, what happened to flat-screen TVs when they started becoming common. The first TVs cost several thousand, and a few years later, you could get a better one for under a thousand.
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That may well be the case.
Though maybe “real” electric driving has only been around for about 10 years, and look how much it has already “developed” in that time?
These early-stage vehicles really feel like a joke nowadays, yet it was a 40k+ car when new.
I can’t say for sure about those “pure/real” EV manufacturers/brands, but my understanding is that many things have already improved significantly there too—including heating, batteries, charging, and range?
But no matter what you drive, you always end up being the one footing the bill. 
What do people think about diesel cars in the future? Will there still be a use for them, or will we be forced to buy a hybrid/all-electric car?
I’m considering a diesel car as a workhorse for a daily commute of about 100 km on the motorway (coming to maybe 30,000 km per year). Diesel would be the right option because of the high mileage, and I’m not sure if an electric car is a good solution within these budgets. Additionally, I’m very concerned about the depreciation of electric cars + repair costs when something happens (I mean replacing battery modules etc.).
I’m asking this because the outlook suggests that diesel will become significantly more expensive in the coming years, which naturally affects the benefits of a diesel car.
And if anyone asks, I’m currently considering a Volvo V60 Cross Country or a standard V60, though the brand or model isn’t locked in yet.
“The end result is unpleasant for those who drive a lot. While diesel is currently available for under 1.60 euros, by 2028 the price would be clearly over two euros according to Murto’s estimate. According to him, the share of policy, excluding taxes, in the final price of diesel is 60 cents per liter.”
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I have been considering the same thing as my next car change approaches. I already compared petrol and diesel options a bit via autokalkulaattori.fi. In my comparison, I had similar cars in petrol and diesel versions; the difference in the asking price was about €4k in favor of the diesel. With only 15,000 km of annual mileage, and even if fuel prices were the same, the diesel didn’t close the price gap at all with the tax over the years—on the contrary (car taxes via Trafi €180 vs €600). I used the manufacturer-stated consumptions of 5.2 and 6.9; in reality, both are probably a bit underestimated, but the difference should remain roughly the same. Personally, I clock at least 20,000 km a year, so the difference will grow even more. I doubt the pump price for petrol will start falling either, even if it rises slower than diesel. My budget won’t stretch to a decent electric car.
Edit.
Having owned one used PHEV (plugari), I won’t buy another one. Selling a 5-year-old car with 170,000 km on it was difficult, and the depreciation was massive even though the battery tests were OK. Additionally, engine problems started gradually emerging during hybrid use. If one were to buy a new one, it might be a quite sensible option…
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