Atria - Good food, better mood

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Here are Paul’s comprehensive comments on Atria’s CMD. :slight_smile:

Atria held a Capital Markets Day on Friday, November 21st, where the company unveiled a new strategy and new financial targets. In our opinion, the new strategy is comprehensive and ambitious, although it is naturally largely based on already known growth investments in convenience food and poultry. Our current forecasts for the company’s earnings development are quite moderate (2026-30e EBIT growth of 3% p.a. vs. the company’s organic target of 7% p.a. relative to our 2025 forecast), compared to which we primarily see room for improvement in the strategy. We see the strategy as relatively low-risk, as the company has, for example, a rather narrow focus regarding acquisitions and stated that the organization will not be expanded to new markets but will concentrate on developing operations in existing countries. Our forecasts, which are more moderate than the targets, take into account the rather tight competitive environment in the industry, and especially the historically soft competitiveness of the Swedish and Danish businesses. The Capital Markets Day presentation and materials can be viewed here and a more concise summary of the new strategy can be watched in the CEO’s video interview.

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@henrielo:nkin capital markets analysis would be here. :slight_smile:

Key new messages on Friday, November 21, 2025, were that the food company Atria will stick to its current domestic markets in Finland, Sweden, Denmark, and Estonia in the coming years, meaning the company is not opening new domestic markets. Similarly, the company will mainly remain in its current product areas – however, it will also explore the production of alternative protein.

”We still have a lot to gain in the product categories and markets where we currently operate,” CEO Kai Gyllström summarized the management team’s conclusion during the strategy process.

Subheadings:

  1. New units support strategy implementation
  2. Four big moves
  3. Financial targets tougher than before
  4. Acquisitions target profitable smaller entities
  5. Responsibility work is a key part of the strategy

NOTE.

The author owns shares in the company.

IR-ikkuna (IR Window) is SalkunRakentaja’s and Sijoittaja.fi’s corporate partners’ channel for background and analytical articles, as well as other interesting investor information. The article is part of a commercial collaboration with the company. The article does not contain investment recommendations.

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@Karo_Hamalainen interviewed Atria’s CEO Kai Gyllström about the company’s goings-on.

Atria’s financial performance has been in a tailwind in recent years, and the stock price has followed the earnings development.

The business environment, however, does not look particularly rosy, as in Atria’s traditional core, pork and beef, demand curves are sloping downwards.

The game in a mature and even declining market is an efficiency game. In large volumes, every saved cent or tenth of a percentage point is a gain. The margin is tight, as on the other hand, concentrated retail and Finnish consumers who are careful with their money do not offer easy profits. Atria is fighting back, among other things, by streamlining its processes and combing through the pricing of every product according to the net revenue management operating model.

Atria seeks growth from poultry and ready meals, in both of which demand provides a tailwind. Especially in Sweden, Atria’s second most important operating country, they are experiencing strong growth.

A 165 million poultry plant was opened in Nurmo last year, and an investment program for ready meal production, worth approximately 110 million euros, is currently underway. In addition to factory investments, Atria is investing relatively more in product development and marketing in these areas, and potential acquisitions will also target poultry or ready meals.

Itikka-osuuskunta and Lihakunta together own clearly over half of Atria’s shares and nearly 90 percent of the votes. The cooperatives’ self-defined most important task is to ‘manage the interests of their members and ensure their perspective is present in the Atria corporate family’. So, presumably, to guarantee demand and a good price for producers’ meat.

From the perspective of Atria’s minority investor, not a single cent more than necessary should be paid for raw materials, nor should a single gram of meat be bought beyond what is needed. How do these interests align?

“We operate like any listed company,” Kai Gyllström replies. “We are measured by operating profit, earnings per share, growth, and employee well-being. The metrics are related to profitable growth.”

In cooperation with: Atria

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China eases anti-dumping tariffs on pork imported from the EU after concluding a year-long investigation.

The new tariffs are clearly lower than before and will come into effect immediately for several European exporters. This follows the previously mentioned trade dispute between the EU and China.

China is the EU’s largest buyer of pork, so the decision should ease things for Atria… :thinking:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/china-lowers-anti-dumping-tariffs-on-european-pork-exporters-.html

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HKFoods sijoituskohteena
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Here are Pauli’s comments on Atria’s modernization investment in Sweden. :slight_smile:

We view the modernization of meat product production primarily as a lifecycle investment, but it also supports growth opportunities through a broader product range. The scale of the investment is large on the scale of Atria Sweden, but nonetheless clearly smaller compared to Atria Finland’s major projects. The Swedish business has improved its profitability in recent years, partly supported by significant production investments. The profitability impact of the latest investment was not detailed more specifically in the press release.

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@henrielo interviewed Atria’s CEO Kai Gyllström :slight_smile:

00:40 Who is Kai Gyllström?
01:30 Passionate home cook
03:30 Extensive international work experience
05:30 Juha Gröhn and Seppo Paatelainen laid the groundwork
06:00 Nurmo’s unique integrated factory
07:40 ”Skilled management teams in the group and country organizations”
09:00 Professors train Atria’s management
11:10 Significant operations and production in four countries
12:20 ”Local production is an asset”
14:10 Sköllersta and Sölversborg are the largest units in Sweden
15:20 Meat exports to Europe and the Far East
17:30 The Finnish government aims to double food exports
18:50 Atria wants to grow cross-border exports
21:30 The importance of domestic origin varies by product group
22:40 ”Animal welfare is at a high level in Finland”
24:30 Large energy investments are essential in reducing carbon emissions
26:00 What does net revenue management mean?
28:10 ”If there’s a strategy, it must also be resourced”
31:10 Atria has an extensive international brand portfolio
32:00 Background of the success in Estonia: Maks & Moorits
35:30 Development of key figures 2020-2024 and new targets
37:20 Investments focus on poultry and ready-to-eat meals
38:20 M&A strategy: smaller acquisitions are more interesting than one big one
39:00 Becoming market leader overnight in Swedish fresh ready-to-eat meals
40:40 Background of the strategy: growth in demand for ready-to-eat meals and poultry continues
42:30 The strategy’s four big moves
43:20 ”The name of our strategy is Together”
45:00 Two new functions: Industrial operations and Product export
46:40 Health trends and alternative proteins are under the microscope
50:25 ”If an Atria product isn’t in the store, I might go to another store”
51:10 Atria’s five-year stock return beats the S&P 500 index
52:50 Market cap to revenue ratio is one-third of Kesko’s

—

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Here is Pauli’s pre-earnings report on Atria, which will publish its financial statement bulletin on Thursday, February 12th. :slight_smile:

Atria will report its 2025 financial statement bulletin on Thursday, February 12th, at approximately 8:00 am. We expect Q4 to have proceeded in fairly stable fashion. We consider it possible that the company will enter 2026 with cautious guidance, as we do not see significant short-term earnings growth drivers, considering, among other things, the relatively weak domestic consumer confidence. The company is working on significant strategic investments for 2026-27, the benefits of which we believe will be weighted towards later years. We lower our recommendation to Reduce (prev. Accumulate) and raise the target price to EUR 16.0 (prev. EUR 15.5).