Kiitos isosti, nyt ymmärsin tosiaan ton päällisin puolin. Tossa tuli tosiaan nyt tiedote että järjestelyt saatu päätökseen. Tämä olikin vähän isompi juttu mitä ekaks ajattelin.
Kaikki yritysostot eivät onnistu. Assa teki 2.2b sekin alaskirjauken jostain Citizen ID:stä
Assa Abloy on vuosikausia kasvattanut omistaja-arvoaan lukuisten pienehköjen yrityskauppojen kautta. Paikallisiin “monopoleihin” perustuva lukitusbisnes on kasvanut kannattavasti. Tämä on ollut suurin yksittäinen sijoitukseni ja olen ollut tyytyväinen omistaja. Hyvä johto on myös nauttinut luottamustani.
Nyt yrityskauppojen koko (ja riski) on kasvanut. Lisäksi fokus on mielestäni vähemmän tarkka kuin aiemmin. Epäilen että lukuisten hankittujen bisnesten hallinta saattaa käydä vaikeaksi aiheuttaen yllätyksiä omistajille. En ole enää yhtä luottavainen firman menestykseen kuin aiempien 20 vuoden aikana. Olenkin vähentänyt omistustani kahden viime vuoden aikana. Nähtäväksi jää mitä tuleman pitää.
Ovat tosiaan onnistuneet kasvamaan vuosikymmeniä tällä strategialla. Olen samaa mieltä että nyt kokoluokka on normaalia isompi ja enemmän kompleksinen. Luotan silti että hyvä tekeminen jatkuu, erittäin hyvä johto ja fiksut omistajat. Latour ja Melker Schörling on omistajina sellaisia joihin voi luottaa. Olen hyvin pitkäaikainen omistaja ja lisäsin pienen siivun viimeisen vuoden aikana.
Kvartalsrapport Q2
Tiedä mitä konsensus odotti mutta hyvin näyttää puksuttelevan…
@Yu_Gong saisko Assasta yhtiösivun?
inderes 1.0 puolella on nyt uusi sivu: Assa Abloy | Inderes: Osakeanalyysit, mallisalkku, osakevertailu & aamukatsaus
inderes 2.0 betassa on jo olemassa oleva sivu 
ASSA ABLOY - Inderes
Tiedoksi myös @Miikka_Laitila
Second acquisition in a row from South America
Third Quarter
• Sales increased by 16% to MSEK 36,881 (31,820), of which 1% (14) was organic growth and 11% (3) net acquired growth. Exchange rate effects affected sales by 4% (16).
• Good organic sales growth was achieved by Global Technologies and Americas, stable organic sales for Entrance Systems, while organic sales decreased for Asia Pacific and EMEIA.
• Ten acquisitions were signed during the quarter with a total annual turnover of approximately MSEK 2,000.
• The EBITA margin was 16.7% (16.2).
• Operating income1 (EBIT) increased by 16% and amounted to MSEK 5,777 (4,973), with an operating margin of 15.7% (15.6).
• The operating margin1 (EBIT) excluding the acquisition of HHI and the divestment of Emtek/U.S. Smart Residential reached a record high of 17.4%.
• Net income1 amounted to MSEK 3,656 (3,552).
• Earnings per share1 amounted to SEK 3.31 (3.20).
• Operating cash flow reached a record high of MSEK 7,177 (4,520).
Edit. I don’t know what the market expected, but the numbers were apparently quite alright.
Fourth Quarter
-Sales increased by 12% to SEK 36,970 M (32,915), of which 0% (9) was positive organic growth and 11% (5) net acquired growth. Exchange rate effects impacted sales by 1% (14).
-Strong organic sales growth was demonstrated by Americas and good growth for Entrance Systems, while organic sales decreased for Asia Pacific, EMEIA and Global Technologies.
-Six acquisitions were signed with a total annual turnover of approximately SEK 900 M.
-Operating income1 (EBIT) increased by 11% and amounted to SEK 5,722 M (5,152), with an operating margin of 15.5% (15.7).
-The operating margin1 (EBIT) excluding the acquisition of HHI and the divestment of Emtek/U.S. Smart Residential amounted to 16.8%.
-Net income1 amounted to SEK 3,969 M (3,729).
-Earnings per share1 amounted to SEK 3.56 (3.36).
-Operating cash flow reached a record high of SEK 7,315 M (6,588).
-The Board of Directors proposes a dividend for 2023 of SEK 5.40 (4.80) per share, distributed equally over two separate payment dates.
Organic growth really fizzled out in Q4. Q4’22 organic growth was at least 9%. I don’t know what the markets were expecting.
Q1 results out, first time organic growth since Q3 -23. Aftermarket (maintenance, repair) apparently in an important position, when the markets are otherwise lagging. Acquisitions (and sales?) slightly lowered the margin, reportedly temporary
I looked at the long-term figures, and profitability has indeed been at a good level in terms of both revenue and capital. (There’s some one-off dip in 2018; does anyone remember what it was?).
I quickly looked at recent figures (2013-2024), and profitability is at a good level, indebtedness is perhaps slightly elevated, the company has grown slowly, investment in product development is ongoing, and the dividend has been sustainable. Acquisitions are then a risk, depending on how successful they are.
I couldn’t quickly get clarity on the competition, what the role of traditional competitors is, and whether there are new players that could disrupt the situation.
I can’t really say anything smart about the valuation, as it’s not my strength. Recent key figures: P/E 23.5 (total), dividend yield 1.7%, and EV/MCap = 118%.
It seems quite OK at a quick glance; I’ll have to look into this more closely.
Good figures from Abloy!
Just for fun, I downloaded all of ASSA ABLOY’s financial data from 2013-2024 to do a “reality check” on what the company has been able to achieve in the long run. It gives some guidelines for the realism of the targets; of course, the past is no guarantee of the future, but it does tell something. I also included the company’s targets so you can compare. Realized growth figures for 2013-2024, annualized:
Revenue +9.9% p.a. - target 10%
Earnings +10.5% p.a.
Share price +9.3% p.a.
Dividend +9.9% p.a.
So, a company growing by approx. +10% by all metrics.
Additionally, let’s look at the operating margin, which has averaged 15.7% with a target of 16-17%. The operating margin has been very stable over the years, with little variation.
So, very “down-to-earth” targets relative to the company’s history.
P.S. Credit must be given for sharing such financial data; all key figures and ratios can be nicely downloaded as an Excel spreadsheet. Since the figures are available, there’s no need to be stingy with them. 
I only just noticed that OP publishes analysis on Assa Abloy. There’s a very recent analysis with a BUY recommendation, target price 360 SEK.
The analysis is not OP’s own production but made by a partner.
ASSA ABLOY has acquired Kentix GmbH (“Kentix”), a German designer and manufacturer of monitoring and access control products for datacenters
ASSA ABLOY has acquired Kentix GmbH (“Kentix”), a German designer and manufacturer of monitoring and access control products for datacenters.
“I am very pleased to welcome Kentix to ASSA ABLOY. This acquisition delivers on our strategy to add complementary products and solutions to our core business,” says Nico Delvaux, President and CEO of ASSA ABLOY.
“I am delighted that Kentix will join the EMEIA Division. Their strong expertise in access control products for data centers aligns well to our Digital & Access Solutions segment vision. Kentix will expand our capability in the fast-growing data center segment delivering an integrated, future-proof security solution that complements our portfolio and positions us well in this critical vertical. We welcome the team at Kentix to the ASSA ABLOY family,” says Neil Vann, Executive Vice President of ASSA ABLOY and Head of EMEIA Division.
**Kentix was established in 2008 and has some 40 employees. The main office and factory are located in Idar-Oberstein, Germany. **
Sales for 2024 amounted to about MEUR 8 (approx. MSEK 90) with a good EBIT margin. The acquisition will be accretive to EPS from the start.
A new quarterly report was released today. Good profitability with some growth. Summary and link attached:
ASSA ABLOY has acquired NSP Security (“NSP”) in the UK, a company providing design, manufacturing and installation of access control solutions primarily within the student accommodation segment.
This is news too, and it’s nice if we can get some discussion going here!
The scale of the acquisition is quite small: NSP’s revenue was just over €9m in 2024.
It is in line with the strategy, however; ASSA’s goal is to grow 5% annually through M&A + organic growth.
2025 results the day after tomorrow on Thursday, are any surprises expected?
