Aspocomp doesn’t really have semiconductor expertise; rather, they sell circuit boards to the semiconductor industry, as well as separately to companies that test semiconductors and other operators working around the semiconductor industry.
The European semiconductor industry, especially the one located in Oulu, would certainly be a decent opportunity for Aspocomp to grow in its home territory. However, it would require pretty record-breaking activity for politicians’ talk to turn into operational production within five years.
Here are Kaisa’s quick comments on Aspocomp’s Q1 results
Aspocomp’s Q1 results fell short of our expectations, although most of the weakness was explained by transitory factors. The company reported that the quarter’s operations were disrupted by delivery challenges for an equipment supplier’s spare parts, which weakened Aspocomp’s production throughput and strained the supply chain. However, the record-high order book, combined with the phasing out of low-margin orders, creates conditions for earnings improvement towards the end of the year, in our assessment.
Kaisa interviewed Aspocomp CEO Manu Skyttä after the Q1 results
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:12 Q1 update
01:35 Delivery challenges
02:13 Reporting model
03:32 Order book
05:22 Semiconductor industry
07:03 Oulu capacity expansion
07:59 Guidance
09:54 Outlook
Kaisa and Sotkamon Jussi have written a company report on Aspocomp.
Aspocomp’s Q1 result fell short of our expectations, but the majority of the miss was explained by transitory factors. The order book, which is at a historically high level, and the phase-out of low-margin orders support, in our view, an earnings improvement towards the end of the year. However, there are still risks related to production fluency before the completion of the equipment investments in Oulu. In the short term, the stock remains expensive (2026e P/E: 18x), and we do not believe that bearing the uncertainty provides sufficient compensation. Consequently, we reiterate our reduce recommendation and EUR 4.70 target price.
Quoted from the report:
Order flow remained strong in the early part of the year
Aspocomp’s order intake remained strong in the early part of the year, meeting our expectations quite well. New orders rose in Q1 (+7% y/y), which strengthened the order book from the previous quarter to EUR 23.5 million (Q4’25: EUR 21.1 million). Of the new orders, 43% came from the semiconductor industry and 30% from the defense, security, and aerospace industry. The order book is at a historically high level for Aspocomp, and the company estimates that EUR 20.8 million of the order book will be delivered during the current year. In our view, this provides a good basis for 2026, especially since demand in the company’s main segments is at a good level.
If PCB capacity exits the European market while demand for defense and semiconductors grows substantially, does the company have any pricing power? What are your thoughts @Kaisa_Vanha-Perttula?
The new capacity is expected to be ramped up by Q3/2027, and given the current demand outlook, it is not an overstatement to extrapolate that the new capacity will also be 100% sold out. This would result in a turnover of EUR 60 million with an EBIT >10% as early as the end of 2028.
Kaisa has released a new comprehensive report on Aspocomp.
Aspocomp’s direction has taken a clear turn for the better, driven by the semiconductor industry and the defense sector. The order book is at a historical high, the financial position has recovered, and the Oulu investment program, if successful, will create the foundation for the next growth phase. We expect earnings to make a clear upward level correction in the coming years, but in our view, a significant part of this development is already priced into the stock. There is potential for both earnings and the share price to go higher, but at the current price, relying on earnings growth does not, in our opinion, offer sufficient compensation for the high forecasting risks. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation for Aspocomp but raise our target price to EUR 5.0 (prev. EUR 4.7) following slight estimate increases and a lowered required rate of return.
Quote from the report:
In previous updates, we emphasized that the key value drivers for Aspocomp were proving the earnings turnaround and stabilizing the financial situation. The company has taken clear steps forward in these areas, as the balance sheet has strengthened, the order book is at a historical high, and demand in the main segments has remained strong. However, the next phase of value creation relies above all on the continuation of the earnings improvement, the clearing of the historically low-margin order book, and the successful implementation of the Oulu investment program.
In our view, Aspocomp has pricing power particularly in situations where speed of delivery, technological complexity, and reliability of supply carry more weight for the client than price. This is emphasized especially in quick-turn (QTA) projects and sensitive sectors, such as the defense sector and the semiconductor industry, where European production and a reliable supplier status are clear strengths. However, at the overall business level, we would not consider pricing power to be a completely straightforward driver, as the company still operates within a subcontracting chain, customers are often large, and competition is fierce—especially in less time-critical deliveries.
Regarding capacity, we believe the picture is also not quite that simple. If successful, the Oulu investment program will clearly increase the company’s throughput capacity, but selling out the full capacity is not necessarily the optimal outcome for Aspocomp. The company must be able to allocate capacity to different customers and sectors in a way that it does not become overly exposed to the volatility of a single sector. At the same time, it must ensure that space remains for higher-margin jobs and those requiring fast delivery, which have traditionally been the company’s “bread and butter.” Thus, the key is not just the amount of new capacity, but also its allocation to the right customer and product mix.
The level you presented is, in the big picture, quite close to our forecasts and is not, in my opinion, an unrealistic scenario. However, the key question is the timeline on which the additional capacity from the Oulu investment program can be effectively utilized and with what kind of customer and product mix the growth will materialize. We explored these themes in more detail in our recent extensive report, which is well worth a look
