I would slightly challenge Inderes’ target price setting in Arvo’s case. According to Inderes’ analysis, the sum of the parts would be 91M euros, and the justified NAV discount for Arvo would be 15-25%. From this, it’s easy to calculate the fair value with the NAV discount as 68-77M, or 83-94e per unit. However, Inderes’ target price is only 62e.
Aapeli, however, is clearly very knowledgeable about the company, and the sum-of-the-parts calculations seem very valid, and the analysis of the company otherwise also seems very high-quality. Thanks for those! Compared to those, however, the target price seems pulled out of a magician’s hat and like unnecessarily chasing the stock price, especially since daily trading volumes on the stock exchange are small and price formation is unlikely to be very efficient, especially as the cooperative is not favored by institutions either. In my opinion, it’s unnecessary to speculate on how long it will take the market to close the NAV discount from +50% to 25%. I see it as somewhat like taking a step back in one’s own assessment, thereby giving an unnecessary handicap to the market.