Maybe a bit off-topic, but I’ll post it here anyway.
The Finnish Long Drink, a Finnish long drink company, was sold for 275 million euros. I think that’s a pretty good price, considering Anora’s market cap is 273.6 million.
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CEO and CFO review from last week’s Annual General Meeting! 
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Today, Q1 market figures were received from Sweden (the quote above refers to the previously published Finnish figures): Spirits +1.5% and wines -1.5%. According to Systembolaget, the timing of Easter supported the figures by about 2 percentage points (this applies to the total volume, i.e., including beers, so the impact on spirits and wines may be even greater), meaning that adjusted for this, consumption is sliding downwards.
In Norway, March saw very brisk growth (~20%), and thus Q1 ended at +7% for wines and +5% for spirits. However, in Norway too, the Easter-adjusted Q1 development was down about 1.5% according to Vinmonopolet’s estimate. Apparently, more is consumed in Norway during Easter than in Sweden, as the impact is larger; it seems many people there have a habit of vacationing for the whole week, and there are more public holidays 
A declining market and the timing of Easter have certainly been known, but in Norway the impact was perhaps surprisingly strong, while in Finland the market was miserable despite Easter. I still need to check the figures for Anora before the results, but for Q1 we have a fairly clear earnings improvement, and Q2 is roughly at the level of the comparison period, largely due to the timing of Easter.
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Here is Rauli’s preview as Anora reports its Q1 results on Wednesday, May 6. 
We expect the company’s revenue to have grown slightly from the comparison period, supported by the favorable timing of Easter. We forecast that profitability has improved clearly thanks to efficiency measures and a weak comparison period, although Q1 is seasonally the company’s weakest quarter. We expect the company to reiterate its full-year guidance, although our forecast is at the lower end of it due to accelerated cost inflation.
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One could certainly point out that @Rauli_Juva’s confidence in his own forecasts doesn’t seem very high, as the investment rating wasn’t changed ahead of the results despite there being about 15% upside to the target price. Of course, I understand that Q1 is typically seasonally weak and there might be no rush to buy, but I still see a bit of a discrepancy there.
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So, did I understand correctly that since improvement is expected for Q1 and there is indeed some distance to the target price, you think it would have been logical to upgrade the recommendation?
It did cross my mind, but on the other hand, my Q1 forecast is quite close to the consensus, and I’m more concerned about the impact of cost inflation on the outlook for the rest of the year (and perhaps next year as well) than the Q1 result itself. The discrepancy between the target price and the recommendation will, of course, be corrected one way or another in the post-earnings report.
Btw, if you have any questions in mind for Anora’s management for the earnings interview, feel free to suggest them.
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One could ask Puntila how the current cost structure could be leveraged by seeking broader third-party distribution (foreign beers, cannabis, etc.) or perhaps even a new proprietary product line that deviates from the current setup. In this context, it must be noted that Puntila has started in his role quite convincingly, and I also like Rauli’s analyses. Good work from both. Of course, I don’t always agree with Rauli, but that’s a different matter.
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Q1 2026 in brief
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Net sales were EUR 135.8 (141.4) million, a decrease of 4.0 percent.
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Comparable EBITDA was EUR 8.8 (8.0) million or 6.5 (5.7) percent of net sales, an increase of 9.7 percent.
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EBITDA was EUR 6.7 (8.9) million or 4.9 (6.3) percent of net sales, a decrease of 25.1 percent.
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Net cash flow from operating activities was EUR -34.5 (-75.6) million.
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Earnings per share were EUR -0.04 (-0.03).
Guidance
In 2026, Anora’s comparable EBITDA is expected to be between EUR 74-79 million (2025: EUR 71.1 million).
Key Figures
| EUR million | Q1 26 | Q1 25 | Change | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 135.8 | 141.4 | -4.0 % | 657.9 |
| Comparable EBITDA | 8.8 | 8.0 | 9.7 % | 71.1 |
| % of net sales | 6.5 | 5.7 | 10.8 | |
| EBITDA | 6.7 | 8.9 | -25.1 % | 61.5 |
| Comparable operating result (EBIT) | 2.1 | 1.2 | 70.6 % | 43.9 |
| % of net sales | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6.7 | |
| Operating result (EBIT) | -0.1 | 2.1 | 23.8 | |
| Result for the period | -2.7 | -2.2 | 5.7 | |
| Earnings per share, EUR | -0.04 | -0.03 | 0.08 | |
| Comparable earnings per share, EUR | -0.02 | -0.04 | 0.33 | |
| Net cash flow from operating activities | -34.5 | -75.6 | 50.3 | |
| Net working capital | -44.8 | 8.7 | -79.6 | |
| Net debt / comparable EBITDA, rolling 12 months | 2.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | |
| Personnel at end of period | 1 175 | 1 219 | -3.6 % | 1 190 |
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Unfortunately @Rauli_Juva’s bearish line was rewarded; however, indebtedness decreased, but that drop in volumes is a bit concerning. Luckily, I’m in this with an average price of €3.30, maybe there’ll be a chance to average down further 
. I certainly understand the pain of those who have been suffering with this since the IPO. By the way @Rauli_Juva, what explains the significantly less negative cash flow compared to the comparison period!?
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Working capital items; compared to the comparison period, it’s not actually the inventories that the company itself is hyping up, but rather the increase in sold receivables and a smaller growth in accounts payable compared to the comparison period. Probably partly due to timing, e.g., because of Easter.
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That BuzzBallz cocktail launch in the Baltics is interesting. Are similar products already on sale elsewhere in the Nordics? As I understand it, the BuzzBallz concept is relatively viral globally, so the company could use something like that.
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Yeah, thanks, you can already see the answer here as well: Anora Group Q1'26 -pikakommentti: Volyymilasku painoi tuloksen alle odotusten - Inderes
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Rauli interviewed Anora’s CEO Kirsi Puntila and CFO Stein Eriksen
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:10 Q1 Highlights
01:29 Decrease in revenue
02:50 Market share development
03:33 Impact of Easter
04:22 Gross margin development
05:33 Personnel reductions
06:07 Balance sheet
07:52 Utilizing distribution channels for third-party products
09:47 Impact of the Middle East crisis
11:44 Demand situation
12:16 Guidance
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A really good interview. The key points that stuck with me were that Q1 only represents 10% of the entire year for Anora. Additionally, the company seems very interested in adding new products to sell within its own network. The stock took quite a beating today, which alone pushes the dividend yield up to 8%…
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Yeah, good interview and thanks Rauli for bringing up the question of how current resources could be utilized in the future regarding broader distribution, based on either their own or third-party products. Growth can be built on many factors. Puntila and Eriksen seem to be a good team; they are doing the right things.
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@Rauli_Juva has upgraded to “Accumulate,” as the share price drop helped the situation: Anora Q1'26: Tuotto-odotus kääntyi houkuttelevaksi - Inderes
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Glad if the interview was useful! And indeed, since the dividend yield alone is close to our required rate of return, the recommendation turned to “Accumulate,” even though our forecasts are currently below the company’s guidance.
If I recall correctly, Viitikko from Proprius had a rule of thumb that dividend yields over 8% are unsustainable. Anora isn’t quite there yet for this year, but it is for future years. Let’s see if this is resolved by a share price increase or by a cut in dividend forecasts
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Here are Rauli’s comments on the figures of Viva Wine, the main competitor of Anora’s Wine segment.
Anora’s Wine segment’s main competitor, Viva Wine, reported its Q1 results yesterday. Viva’s revenue grew slightly organically in the Nordics, even though market volume was in a slight decline. Due to an acquisition and a change in reporting, the profitability of the Nordic region is no longer directly visible from Viva’s reported figures, but based on comments, it improved in Q1 compared to the previous year. Compared to Anora’s Wine segment, Viva’s sales development was clearly better and profitability remains at a superior level.
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