SEB tuunaa arvohaarukan ylälaitaa hieman alas, nyt 10,9…12,0 eur.
All eyes on strategy
Aktia reported solid Q2 results with PBT, which included smaller IAC, 3% below consensus. NII was 4% ahead and AUM saw positive flow. On the negative side, loan losses were 23% higher. Aktia also sent out a press release stating that Kati Eriksson, head of Asset Management, will leave the company. This follows two CEO changes in the past 12 months, and we hope for stability and a clear strategy once Mr Haglund takes over as CEO in H2.
No significant changes to estimates
Q2 NII was 4% ahead of consensus driven by strong corporate loan growth and we raise our NII estimates accordingly. Costs were however 3% above expectations and even though there were EUR 2.9bn of one-offs included that would bring underlying costs below consensus, we raise our cost estimates on potentially more restructuring charges. The 23% higher-than-expected loan loss provision charge driven by a number of specific problems has also impacted estimates negatively. Overall, our estimates are broadly unchanged.Looking for stability
The former CEO Mr. Lehtonen started in June 2024 and was replaced by Mr. Haglund a year later. There was also a CFO shift in December 2024 and today it was announced that the head of the important Asset Management division Kati Eriksson will leave the company after having been appointed H2 2023. We believe the market has been concerned about these frequent changes and we hope for stability once the new CEO takes his role in H2 2025.A low P/E and a high yield
Aktia is trading on 7.4x 2027E earnings and has a dividend yield of 8.9%. This is a lower valuation than its Nordic peers. We leave our estimates broadly unchanged but tighten our fair value range to EUR 10.9-12.0 from EUR 10.9-12.3.