SEB’s updated company report ahead of earnings release (12.2. earnings out)
Fair value range 11.5-13.0, slightly lowered.
Stable EPS approx 1.3 estimated for 2024-26.
Dividend, however, is estimated to rise; 0.7 eur 2024 (as in 2023), 0.8 eur 2025 and 0.95 eur 2026.
Minor EPS revisions
We cut our NII forecasts by 1% on system volume growth continuing to be weak, and EPS falls by 1% for 2025E and 2% for 2026E. At 7.5x 2025E EPS, Aktia’s multiple is lower than its peers. We reduce our fair value range to EUR 11.5-13.0 (11.8-13.1) on slightly lower estimates. Our EUR 0.8 dividend expectation is based on a 61% payout ratio and leaves the CET1 ratio at 12.0%, which gives Aktia a management buffer above its CET1 requirement of 340bp (should decline over time, we believe).
